Reads as: riskier than 14.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SHEPHERD DAVID
8 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.33
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.53
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.27
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.35
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
72.7
3.33
0.53
0.58
2.22
3.27
8.1%
2025Q3
92
74.4
3.22
0.53
0.48
2.21
3.04
3.5%
2025Q2
91
81.4
3.15
0.60
0.34
2.22
2.94
2.7%
2025Q1
90
77.5
3.17
0.67
0.26
2.24
3.07
0.0%
2024Q4
92
80.4
3.04
0.67
0.22
2.15
2.95
0.9%
2024Q3
92
84.1
3.07
0.57
0.27
2.23
2.91
1.5%
2024Q2
91
83.8
2.95
0.51
0.34
2.10
2.69
4.2%
2024Q1
91
83.3
2.30
0.43
0.07
1.79
2.25
16.1%
2023Q4
92
84.1
2.15
0.38
0.09
1.69
2.12
12.6%
2023Q3
92
85.5
2.42
0.65
0.22
1.54
2.23
0.0%
2023Q2
91
82.8
2.47
0.52
0.28
1.67
2.24
17.8%
2023Q1
90
79.7
2.51
0.43
0.49
1.60
2.49
9.1%
2022Q4
92
80.2
2.30
0.36
0.49
1.45
2.21
8.4%
2022Q3
92
77.5
0.41
0.04
0.12
0.25
0.41
100.0%
2022Q2
91
73.7
2.52
0.50
0.39
1.63
2.42
10.9%
2022Q1
90
70.4
2.20
0.24
0.37
1.59
2.16
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-03-28
2024-08-29
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-09-18
2024-08-29
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-09-16
2024-08-29
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2024-09-18
2024-04-18
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-05-10
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-05-10
2024-04-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-04-02
2024-04-18
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-10
2024-04-18
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2024-05-10
2024-04-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-05-10
2024-04-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-10
2023-11-13
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2023-12-25
2022-12-29
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
E
2023-02-11
2022-12-29
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
E
2023-02-11
2022-12-29
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
E
2023-02-11
2021-09-16
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2021-10-11
2021-09-16
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2021-10-11
2021-09-16
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2021-10-11
2021-09-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2021-10-11
2021-09-16
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2021-10-11
2021-09-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2021-08-02
2021-09-16
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2021-10-11
2021-09-16
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
G
2021-10-11
2021-09-16
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
F
2021-10-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
900 SOUTH 12TH ST
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
900 SOUTH 12TH ST
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHRISTENSEN, COVEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLEGG, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
DIPASQUALE, MARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-26
current
pecos_ownership
HOPKINS, AMBER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
SHEPHERD, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
900 SOUTH 12TH ST
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
900 SOUTH 12TH ST
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
COVEY CHRISTENSEN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMBER HOPKINS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID SHEPHERD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY DIPASQUALE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL CLEGG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,719,204
—
$1,145,995
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$1,480,449
—
—
—
$2,133
2
propco
2022-12-31
$1,193,664
—
—
$15,147
$50,789
2
propco
2021-12-31
$1,111,661
—
—
$21,715
$124,094
2
propco
2020-12-31
$3,268,490
—
$377,478
—
—
8
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08089
fmr
0
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08089
acs median gross
1
$535
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08089
fmr
1
$742
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08089
acs median gross
2
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08089
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08089
acs median gross
3
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08089
fmr
3
$1,303
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08089
acs median gross
4
$1,228
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08089
fmr
4
$1,632
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08089
acs median gross
$839
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81067
acs median gross
0
$282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81067
acs median gross
1
$349
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81067
acs median gross
2
$884
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81067
acs median gross
3
$986
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81067
acs median gross
4
$1,306
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81067
acs median gross
$930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 81067
payment standard 110
0
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 90
0
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
safmr
0
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 110
1
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 90
1
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
safmr
1
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 110
2
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 90
2
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
safmr
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 110
3
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 90
3
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
safmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 110
4
$1,991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
payment standard 90
4
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81067
safmr
4
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.