Reads as: riskier than 51.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
20 chains
CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP
98 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CIBC BANK USA
155 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
WIPFLI LLP
67 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.89
3.60
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.73
0.64
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.73
3.49
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.95
3.65
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
31.8
3.89
0.73
0.83
2.33
3.73
3.2%
2025Q3
92
35.2
4.26
0.71
0.76
2.79
4.23
5.8%
2025Q2
91
36.2
3.91
0.65
0.71
2.55
3.71
7.8%
2025Q1
90
33.6
3.57
0.54
0.78
2.24
3.52
11.1%
2024Q4
92
32.5
3.30
0.33
0.88
2.09
3.40
8.2%
2024Q3
92
33.5
3.18
0.37
0.90
1.90
3.17
8.8%
2024Q2
91
37.0
2.71
0.39
0.70
1.61
2.70
12.8%
2024Q1
91
35.3
2.86
0.49
0.65
1.72
2.84
14.4%
2023Q4
92
34.4
2.77
0.33
0.88
1.56
2.60
17.3%
2023Q3
92
31.0
2.61
0.39
0.78
1.45
2.51
34.1%
2023Q2
91
31.2
1.84
0.43
0.64
0.77
1.59
0.4%
2023Q1
90
34.4
2.33
0.20
0.77
1.37
2.31
10.5%
2022Q4
92
32.0
2.86
0.14
1.18
1.54
2.75
8.1%
2022Q3
92
33.4
2.73
0.15
1.04
1.53
2.63
16.7%
2022Q2
91
32.3
2.98
0.34
0.88
1.76
2.91
57.9%
2022Q1
90
36.2
2.69
0.44
0.56
1.69
2.66
46.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2026-02-12
2026-01-20
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2026-02-12
2026-01-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2026-02-12
2026-01-20
Health · complaint
F0712
Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits.
D
2026-02-12
2025-07-24
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-08-24
2025-07-24
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-08-24
2025-06-13
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-07-10
2025-04-01
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-04-29
2025-04-01
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-04-29
2025-04-01
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2025-04-29
2025-04-01
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2025-04-29
2025-04-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-04-29
2024-03-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-02-10
2024-03-27
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-04-22
2024-01-10
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-02-05
2023-03-29
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-05-03
2023-03-29
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-05-03
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
34
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NSHR OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLS, DAVID
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARROWHEAD 123 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE LANE MORRELL BOWEN TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARROWHEAD 123 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAUMANN, TROY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAUMANN, TROY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BELONGIA, CHRISTINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CIBC BANK USA
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINUUM THERAPY PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINUUM THERAPY PARTNERS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEE, DARREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-11-30
current
pecos_ownership
GREER, LAUREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-29
current
pecos_ownership
HOEHN, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOEHN, JEFFREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
NSH 1201 GARFIELD AVENUE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
NSH 1201 GARFIELD AVENUE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
NSH REHAB LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
NSH REHAB LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PATZER, COLLEEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
PATZER, COLLEEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
POPP, MARISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-17
current
pecos_ownership
PURTELL, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMNANAN, KESHNI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE LANE MORRELL BOWEN TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WIPFLI LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
WIPFLI LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY HOEHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TROY BAUMANN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MILLS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$621,014
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$304,689
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$305,086
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$193,556
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$159,713
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 55087
acs median gross
0
$923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55087
fmr
0
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55087
acs median gross
1
$808
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55087
fmr
1
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55087
acs median gross
2
$1,069
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55087
fmr
2
$1,236
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55087
acs median gross
3
$1,359
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55087
fmr
3
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55087
acs median gross
4
$1,651
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55087
fmr
4
$1,776
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55087
acs median gross
5
$1,625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55087
acs median gross
$1,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55087
acs recent mover gross
$1,200
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54140
acs median gross
1
$782
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54140
acs median gross
2
$1,032
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54140
acs median gross
3
$1,346
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54140
acs median gross
4
$1,750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54140
acs median gross
$1,072
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54140
acs recent mover gross
$1,173
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 54140
payment standard 110
0
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 90
0
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
safmr
0
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 110
1
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 90
1
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
safmr
1
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 110
2
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 90
2
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
safmr
2
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 110
3
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 90
3
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
safmr
3
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 110
4
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
payment standard 90
4
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54140
safmr
4
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.