Composite
73.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 95.2 | 84.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 21.97 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 56.4 | 46.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.02 | in index |
| chow risk | 89.9 | 70.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 10.37 | in index |
| staffing risk | 43.5 | 43.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 8.37 | in index |
| billing conduct | 16.9 | 20.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 3.90 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 20.7 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 86.7 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 84.8 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 46.4 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 43.6 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 80.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 60.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 76.0 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 83.2 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 46.4 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 46.4 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 43.6 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 43.6 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.16 | -1.34 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.08 | -0.11 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | -0.11 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.16 | -0.22 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Occupancy | 0.71 | +0.15 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | PA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.39 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.26 | 3.27 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.44 | 3.43 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 114.0 | 3.39 | 0.23 | 1.02 | 2.14 | 3.26 | 6.8% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 120.6 | 3.49 | 0.25 | 0.95 | 2.29 | 3.32 | 11.7% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 125.6 | 3.81 | 0.35 | 0.99 | 2.47 | 3.52 | 35.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 134.4 | 3.56 | 0.38 | 0.96 | 2.22 | 3.26 | 43.5% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 133.5 | 3.03 | 0.22 | 0.89 | 1.92 | 2.82 | 43.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 139.1 | 3.46 | 0.29 | 0.99 | 2.18 | 3.26 | 43.4% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 129.7 | 3.31 | 0.32 | 0.98 | 2.00 | 3.08 | 31.4% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 123.0 | 3.38 | 0.34 | 1.06 | 1.98 | 3.12 | 34.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 110.0 | 3.39 | 0.34 | 1.07 | 1.98 | 3.13 | 38.7% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 110.4 | 3.38 | 0.32 | 1.01 | 2.04 | 3.13 | 45.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 122.8 | 3.16 | 0.24 | 1.03 | 1.88 | 2.88 | 42.9% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 142.7 | 2.76 | 0.21 | 0.86 | 1.68 | 2.53 | 41.3% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 129.2 | 3.08 | 0.27 | 0.91 | 1.90 | 2.65 | 40.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 122.3 | 3.53 | 0.26 | 1.06 | 2.21 | 3.25 | 48.6% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 110.9 | 3.40 | 0.30 | 1.03 | 2.06 | 3.01 | 46.8% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 109.8 | 3.54 | 0.28 | 1.06 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 58.4% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2026-03-03 |
| 2025-09-25 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-09-25 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2025-07-16 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | D | 2025-07-16 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2025-07-16 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-07-16 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-07-16 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2025-07-16 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-07-16 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health · complaint | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-01-10 | Health · complaint | F0560 | Protect a residents' right to refuse some types of non-requested transfers within the nursing home. | D | 2025-01-29 |
| 2025-01-10 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-01-29 |
| 2024-11-26 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-11-26 | Health · complaint | F0559 | Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-08-23 | Health | F0914 | Provide bedrooms that don't allow residents to see each other when privacy is needed. | D | 2024-09-24 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-05-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-05-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-05-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-05-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2024-05-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-06-05 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2024-05-15 |
| 2024-03-15 | Health | F0807 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration. | E | 2024-05-15 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-10-31 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | E | 2023-10-31 |
| 2023-07-06 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-07-31 |
| 2023-07-06 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-07-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZ PA HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2021-05-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZAHLER, JACOB | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-05-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JACOB ZAHLER | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-10-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JACOB ZAHLER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-05-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-31 | — | KINGSTON OPERATIONS LLC | MANOR CARE OF KINGSTON PA LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | MANOR AT ST LUKE VILLAGE,THE | — | — | — | 104 | 1711 EAST BROAD STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | PENNKNOLL VILLAGE | — | — | — | 133 | 208 PENNKNOLL ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | MAPLEWOOD NURSING AND REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 180 | MA OPERATING, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | PAVILION AT ST LUKE VILLAGE, THE | — | — | — | 120 | 1000 STACIE DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | MANOR AT PENN VILLAGE, THE | — | — | — | 159 | 51 ROUTE 204 OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | WYNCOTE CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 58 | WYNCOTE CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ONYX WELLNESS CENTER | — | — | — | 119 | ONYX WELLNESS CENTER LLC |
| 2025-04-24 | HAVENCREST REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 48 | HAVENCREST REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-04-24 | BEAVER VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | BEAVER VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | STROUDSBURG POST ACUTE NURSING & REHABILITATIONLLC | — | — | — | 174 | STROUDSBURG POST ACUTE NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | EDENBROOK OF YEADON | — | — | — | 190 | YEADON SNF OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | EDENBROOK OF GREENWOOD HILL | — | — | — | 160 | POTTSVILLE SNF OPERATIONS, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 42079 | acs median gross | 0 | $600 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 42079 | fmr | 0 | $863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 42079 | acs median gross | 1 | $752 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 42079 | fmr | 1 | $1,028 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 42079 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,016 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 42079 | fmr | 2 | $1,252 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 42079 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,194 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 42079 | fmr | 3 | $1,631 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 42079 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,306 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 42079 | fmr | 4 | $1,766 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 42079 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,428 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 42079 | acs median gross | $1,004 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 42079 | acs recent mover gross | $1,218 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 18704 | acs median gross | 0 | $660 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 18704 | acs median gross | 1 | $824 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 18704 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,089 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 18704 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,152 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 18704 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,810 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 18704 | acs median gross | $1,006 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 18704 | acs recent mover gross | $961 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $957 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $783 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | safmr | 0 | $870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,133 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $927 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | safmr | 1 | $1,030 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,134 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | safmr | 2 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,804 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,476 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | safmr | 3 | $1,640 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,958 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,602 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 18704 | safmr | 4 | $1,780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |