Composite
11.9 / 100 percentile
Screener / 065312
A
CROWLEY COUNTY NURSING CENTER
snfCO
401 IDAHO AVE, ORDWAY, CO 81063 · CCN 065312
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
44
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 11.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model5Components16CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing16Penalties0Deficiencies18Licensure0Ownership6Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent30
Composite explanation
5| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 52.3 | 40.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.07 | in index |
| staffing risk | 59.1 | 59.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 11.37 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 13.5 | 8.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 3.12 | in index |
| financial risk | 10.8 | 19.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 2.49 | in index |
| chow risk | 16.7 | 22.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 1.93 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
16| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 40.3 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.0 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 20.7 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 19.9 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 4.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 8.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 59.1 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 70.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 50.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 28.1 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 24.4 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 8.6 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 8.6 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 59.1 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 59.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.3%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
45.3
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
4.7%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
96.8
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.81 | +0.11 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.14 | 3.19 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.02 | 3.02 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.19 | 3.27 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 38.3 | 3.14 | 0.38 | 0.55 | 2.21 | 3.02 | 2.9% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 36.9 | 3.17 | 0.31 | 0.55 | 2.30 | 3.08 | 2.7% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 39.4 | 3.03 | 0.25 | 0.64 | 2.15 | 2.80 | 2.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 38.3 | 3.22 | 0.30 | 0.66 | 2.26 | 2.99 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 39.6 | 3.23 | 0.17 | 0.82 | 2.23 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 42.2 | 2.91 | 0.28 | 0.58 | 2.05 | 2.64 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 38.6 | 3.03 | 0.34 | 0.58 | 2.11 | 2.73 | 0.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 39.8 | 3.37 | 0.45 | 0.56 | 2.35 | 3.25 | 5.6% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 38.7 | 2.94 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 1.94 | 2.88 | 5.9% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 36.4 | 3.11 | 0.41 | 0.64 | 2.06 | 2.94 | 3.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 36.5 | 2.98 | 0.30 | 0.62 | 2.06 | 2.72 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 37.4 | 3.04 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 2.08 | 2.82 | 4.5% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 38.8 | 2.92 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 2.09 | 2.80 | 4.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 36.3 | 2.87 | 0.19 | 0.72 | 1.96 | 2.75 | 5.2% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 33.1 | 2.68 | 0.21 | 0.88 | 1.58 | 2.61 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 33.4 | 3.05 | 0.23 | 0.91 | 1.91 | 2.96 | 2.3% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18D × 8E × 4F × 4G × 1J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-27 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-27 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-27 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-27 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-27 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-27 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2024-03-25 |
| 2024-02-27 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2024-03-25 |
| 2019-10-11 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2019-11-30 |
| 2019-10-11 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | J | 2019-11-15 |
| 2019-10-11 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2019-11-13 |
| 2019-10-11 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2019-11-07 |
| 2019-10-11 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | G | 2019-11-07 |
| 2019-10-11 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2019-11-07 |
| 2019-10-11 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | D | 2019-11-07 |
| 2018-09-12 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | E | 2018-10-05 |
| 2018-09-12 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2018-10-08 |
| 2018-09-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2018-10-05 |
| 2018-09-12 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | F | 2018-10-05 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
6| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARBUTHNOT, BLAINE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2004-11-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NEELY, JERRY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2004-11-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SUMMERS, JEREMY | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-01-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BLAINE ARBUTHNOT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2004-11-24 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEREMY SUMMERS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-01-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JERRY NEELY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2004-11-24 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — CO snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | FALCON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 107 | FALCON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-07-11 | Pueblo Heights Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | CONSTITUTION OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-05-16 | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLC | — | — | — | 60 | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-10-16 | STORYBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | STORYBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | CASEY'S POND SENIOR LIVING | — | — | — | 66 | NORTHWEST COLORADO VISITING NURSE ASSOCIATION |
| 2024-09-01 | POUDRE CANYON REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC | — | — | — | 83 | POUDRE CANYON REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WELLSPRINGS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 81 | WELLSPRINGS CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | SOUTH PLATTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 78 | SOUTH PLATTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WESTLAKE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 107 | LATHAM RIVER HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2024-09-01 | THORNTON CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 101 | THORNTON CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | DURANGO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 133 | CHIMNEY ROCK HEALTHCARE INC |
| 2024-09-01 | STERLING REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC | — | — | — | 63 | STERLING REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 08025 | fmr | 0 | $976 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08025 | acs median gross | 1 | $503 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08025 | fmr | 1 | $982 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08025 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,129 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08025 | fmr | 2 | $1,289 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08025 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,032 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08025 | fmr | 3 | $1,546 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08025 | fmr | 4 | $2,021 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08025 | acs median gross | $984 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 08025 | acs recent mover gross | $1,519 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 81063 | acs median gross | 1 | $499 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 81063 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,259 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 81063 | acs median gross | 3 | $998 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 81063 | acs median gross | $995 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 81063 | acs recent mover gross | $978 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | safmr | 0 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | safmr | 1 | $1,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,441 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,179 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | safmr | 2 | $1,310 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,727 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | safmr | 3 | $1,570 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,255 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,845 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81063 | safmr | 4 | $2,050 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.