Reads as: riskier than 19.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
123 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP LP
83 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
UT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.99
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.53
0.78
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.81
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.06
3.25
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
96.5
2.99
0.53
0.73
1.73
2.81
0.0%
2025Q3
92
97.4
2.97
0.53
0.71
1.73
2.73
0.0%
2025Q2
91
95.7
2.87
0.38
0.87
1.62
2.70
0.0%
2025Q1
90
97.0
2.74
0.36
0.88
1.50
2.71
0.0%
2024Q4
92
95.8
2.76
0.40
0.82
1.54
2.65
0.0%
2024Q3
92
95.4
2.94
0.37
0.84
1.73
2.68
0.0%
2024Q2
91
94.9
2.90
0.40
0.84
1.67
2.58
0.0%
2024Q1
91
95.9
2.83
0.46
0.75
1.62
2.58
0.0%
2023Q4
92
94.7
2.73
0.45
0.74
1.54
2.44
0.0%
2023Q3
92
87.8
2.74
0.50
0.75
1.49
2.67
0.0%
2023Q2
91
90.3
2.66
0.57
0.66
1.44
2.47
0.0%
2023Q1
90
85.1
2.80
0.60
0.61
1.58
2.63
0.0%
2022Q4
92
77.9
2.80
0.56
0.61
1.63
2.65
0.0%
2022Q3
92
71.4
2.74
0.61
0.64
1.49
2.48
0.0%
2022Q2
91
67.8
2.72
0.74
0.54
1.44
2.47
0.0%
2022Q1
90
65.0
2.94
0.90
0.48
1.55
2.60
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
24
D × 20E × 3F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-06-07
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-07-16
2024-06-07
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-07-16
2024-06-07
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-07-16
2024-06-07
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-07-16
2024-06-07
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-07-16
2024-06-07
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-07-16
2024-06-07
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-07-16
2024-06-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-07-16
2023-01-12
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-03-01
2023-01-12
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-03-01
2023-01-12
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-03-01
2023-01-12
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-03-01
2023-01-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-03-01
2023-01-12
Health
F0914
Provide bedrooms that don't allow residents to see each other when privacy is needed.
D
2023-03-01
2021-05-20
Health
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0807
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration.
D
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
E
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2021-06-28
2021-05-20
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2021-06-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
COSGRAVE, CORY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-11
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOOPES, TRAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOSS, TYLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
QUAIL CREEK HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAND HOLLOW HEALTHCARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAND HOLLOW HEALTHCARE INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-24
current
pecos_ownership
STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TYLER MOSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CORY COSGRAVE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRAVIS HOOPES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$2,315,898
—
$1,169,213
—
—
5
—
2024-06-30
$1,964,440
—
$927,837
—
—
5
—
2023-06-30
$1,749,625
—
$788,104
—
—
5
—
2022-06-30
$1,249,510
—
$527,009
—
—
5
—
2021-06-30
$1,158,549
—
$510,733
—
$7,686
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 49053
acs median gross
0
$1,335
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
1
$1,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
1
$1,218
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
2
$1,409
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
2
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
3
$2,072
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
4
$2,159
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
4
$2,624
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
5
$2,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
acs median gross
$1,566
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
acs recent mover gross
$1,807
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84770
acs median gross
0
$1,077
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84770
acs median gross
1
$968
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84770
acs median gross
2
$1,331
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84770
acs median gross
3
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84770
acs median gross
4
$1,940
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84770
acs median gross
5
$2,556
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84770
acs median gross
$1,463
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84770
acs recent mover gross
$1,902
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 84770
payment standard 110
0
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 90
0
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
safmr
0
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 110
1
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 90
1
$1,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
safmr
1
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 110
2
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 90
2
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
safmr
2
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 110
3
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 90
3
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
safmr
3
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 110
4
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
payment standard 90
4
$2,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84770
safmr
4
$2,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.