Reads as: riskier than 19.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HALL MATTHEW
16 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.48
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.43
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.86
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.72
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
89.9
3.48
0.43
0.74
2.31
2.86
0.0%
2025Q3
92
88.7
3.28
0.51
0.66
2.12
2.84
0.0%
2025Q2
91
87.8
3.51
0.56
0.63
2.33
2.95
0.0%
2025Q1
90
85.6
3.51
0.52
0.73
2.26
2.96
0.0%
2024Q4
92
85.7
3.58
0.53
0.67
2.38
3.10
0.0%
2024Q3
92
86.7
3.62
0.49
0.74
2.39
3.02
0.0%
2024Q2
91
84.6
3.59
0.44
0.71
2.44
2.96
0.0%
2024Q1
91
85.9
3.46
0.41
0.78
2.27
2.85
0.0%
2023Q4
92
84.3
3.54
0.38
0.88
2.28
2.98
0.0%
2023Q3
92
85.3
3.15
0.04
0.85
2.26
2.72
0.0%
2023Q2
91
89.1
3.14
0.03
0.84
2.27
2.39
0.0%
2023Q1
90
86.4
2.83
0.08
0.91
1.85
2.36
0.0%
2022Q4
92
83.8
2.96
0.12
0.84
2.00
2.44
0.0%
2022Q3
92
83.2
2.94
0.07
0.85
2.02
2.40
0.0%
2022Q2
91
80.7
2.89
0.08
0.86
1.95
2.52
0.0%
2022Q1
90
82.6
2.59
0.06
0.81
1.72
2.30
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
6
C × 1D × 2E × 1F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2021-04-08
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2021-05-07
2020-02-06
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2020-02-26
2020-02-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2020-02-26
2018-12-12
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2019-01-09
2018-12-12
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2019-01-09
2018-12-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-01-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
35
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADAMSON, MICHELE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKWELL, CRYSTAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-09
current
pecos_ownership
BRITTON, ISAAC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
BRYANT-DUNN, PAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
ESTEP, BARBARA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOFF, ROBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2005-10-10
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, MATTHEW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-31
current
pecos_ownership
KENWRIGHT, KAREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-11-27
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, DEBRA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-05-11
current
pecos_ownership
NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2001-10-31
current
pecos_ownership
NOLAND PHARMACY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
RENDA, NICHOLAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-26
current
pecos_ownership
SHUNNARA, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-12-03
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, GEORGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-08-25
current
pecos_ownership
SMOTHERS, KATHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-12
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS, ADEEB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
URBAN, KELLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-03-03
current
pecos_ownership
WAGGONER, JAMES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
WARREN AVERETT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARBARA ESTEP
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRA NELSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-05-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2009-08-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC BRITTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2007-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES WAGGONER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE ADAMSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICHOLAS RENDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-10-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT GOFF
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2005-10-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADEEB THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRYSTAL BLACKWELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER SHUNNARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-12-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN KENWRIGHT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-11-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY SMOTHERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLEY URBAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-03-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW HALL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAM BRYANT-DUNN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$1,392,976
—
$527,590
$599,381
—
0
—
2024-06-30
$1,098,660
—
$631,648
$467,012
—
0
—
2023-06-30
$1,166,682
—
$614,768
$541,512
—
0
—
2022-06-30
$1,041,941
—
$633,190
$400,435
—
0
—
2021-06-30
$1,100,901
—
$699,010
$401,891
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01073
acs median gross
0
$1,009
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01073
fmr
0
$1,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01073
acs median gross
1
$1,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01073
fmr
1
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01073
acs median gross
2
$1,155
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01073
fmr
2
$1,266
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01073
acs median gross
3
$1,330
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01073
fmr
3
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01073
acs median gross
4
$1,429
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01073
fmr
4
$1,801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01073
acs median gross
5
$1,496
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01073
acs median gross
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01073
acs recent mover gross
$1,352
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35205
acs median gross
0
$883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35205
acs median gross
1
$1,003
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35205
acs median gross
2
$1,224
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35205
acs median gross
3
$1,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35205
acs median gross
$1,084
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35205
acs recent mover gross
$1,105
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 35205
payment standard 110
0
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 90
0
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
safmr
0
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 110
1
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 90
1
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
safmr
1
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 110
2
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 90
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
safmr
2
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 110
3
$1,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 90
3
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
safmr
3
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 110
4
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
payment standard 90
4
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35205
safmr
4
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.