2818 GRAND VISTA CIR, COLORADO SPRINGS, CO 80904 · CCN 065417 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Composite
57.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
97
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 57.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
123 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.70
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.63
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.45
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.79
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
91.0
3.70
0.63
0.76
2.31
3.45
1.1%
2025Q3
92
85.6
3.92
0.57
0.97
2.38
3.63
0.4%
2025Q2
91
87.3
3.98
0.54
1.04
2.40
3.57
0.1%
2025Q1
90
90.8
4.21
0.49
1.06
2.66
3.94
0.2%
2024Q4
92
84.9
4.53
0.66
0.94
2.94
4.24
0.7%
2024Q3
92
92.6
4.35
0.58
0.88
2.89
4.03
0.5%
2024Q2
91
84.5
4.49
0.64
0.89
2.97
4.16
1.0%
2024Q1
91
91.0
4.38
0.65
0.81
2.92
4.02
1.1%
2023Q4
92
94.0
4.30
0.61
0.78
2.91
3.95
0.4%
2023Q3
92
91.0
4.29
0.62
0.84
2.83
4.10
0.4%
2023Q2
91
93.0
4.31
0.53
0.86
2.92
3.93
0.3%
2023Q1
90
98.1
4.14
0.64
0.77
2.74
3.68
1.9%
2022Q4
92
93.4
4.45
0.75
0.79
2.91
4.00
1.8%
2022Q3
92
93.0
4.52
0.82
0.79
2.91
4.07
0.9%
2022Q2
91
94.6
4.36
0.87
0.69
2.79
3.86
1.9%
2022Q1
90
95.7
3.89
0.72
0.73
2.44
3.63
6.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
E
2025-07-16
2025-06-26
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-07-16
2025-06-26
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2025-07-16
2025-06-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-07-16
2025-06-26
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-07-16
2025-06-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-07-16
2025-06-26
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2025-07-16
2025-06-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-07-16
2025-06-26
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2025-07-16
2023-11-08
Health
F0574
The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands.
E
2023-12-07
2023-11-08
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2023-12-07
2023-11-08
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
K
2023-12-07
2023-11-08
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2023-12-07
2023-11-08
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2023-12-07
2023-11-08
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2023-12-07
2023-11-08
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2023-12-07
2023-11-08
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-12-07
2023-11-08
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2023-12-07
2022-07-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-08-22
2022-07-27
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2022-08-22
2022-07-27
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-08-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
DUNYON, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-12
current
pecos_ownership
DUNYON, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
DUNYON, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENDURA HEALTHCARE LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
JORGENSEN, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-12
current
pecos_ownership
SATO, AMI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULTZ, KARI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-12
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULTZ, KARI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER COLORADO PROPERTIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
AMI SATO
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DUNYON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2017-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DUNYON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JORGENSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2014-04-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2014-04-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DUNYON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARI SCHULTZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARI SCHULTZ
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,007,634
—
$1,240,115
—
—
4
—
2023-12-31
$2,567,033
—
$1,118,214
—
$47,931
4
—
2022-12-31
$2,086,033
—
$1,308,124
—
—
4
—
2021-12-31
$2,177,546
—
$1,075,843
—
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$1,796,811
—
$910,642
—
$3,681
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08041
acs median gross
0
$1,103
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
0
$1,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
1
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
1
$1,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
2
$1,587
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
2
$1,735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
3
$2,072
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
3
$2,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
4
$2,304
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
4
$2,744
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
5
$2,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
acs median gross
$1,696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
acs recent mover gross
$1,853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
0
$941
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
1
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
2
$1,500
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
3
$1,958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
4
$1,830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
$1,474
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs recent mover gross
$1,519
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80904
payment standard 110
0
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
0
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
0
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 110
1
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
1
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
1
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 110
2
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
2
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 110
3
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
3
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
3
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 110
4
$2,662
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
4
$2,178
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
4
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.