Reads as: riskier than 13.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.47
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.25
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.56
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
77.8
2.47
0.29
0.60
1.58
2.25
0.0%
2025Q3
92
79.2
2.62
0.30
0.62
1.70
2.34
0.0%
2025Q2
91
79.4
2.88
0.28
0.68
1.93
2.54
0.0%
2025Q1
90
80.5
2.65
0.28
0.67
1.70
2.39
0.0%
2024Q4
92
78.2
2.82
0.32
0.73
1.77
2.53
0.0%
2024Q3
92
78.3
2.81
0.22
0.82
1.77
2.45
0.0%
2024Q2
91
77.6
2.84
0.15
0.88
1.81
2.55
0.0%
2024Q1
91
80.2
2.65
0.14
0.90
1.61
2.39
0.0%
2023Q4
92
78.8
2.71
0.15
0.82
1.74
2.52
0.0%
2023Q3
92
77.5
2.64
0.19
0.76
1.69
2.42
0.0%
2023Q2
91
75.6
2.49
0.22
0.69
1.58
2.21
0.0%
2023Q1
90
68.1
2.70
0.21
0.78
1.71
2.39
0.0%
2022Q4
92
68.7
2.71
0.13
0.75
1.83
2.44
2.9%
2022Q3
92
69.5
2.83
0.12
0.94
1.77
2.62
8.3%
2022Q2
91
69.9
2.59
0.08
0.78
1.73
2.28
5.3%
2022Q1
90
69.6
3.08
0.15
0.80
2.13
2.67
3.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 8F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-02-01
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-03-05
2024-02-01
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-05
2024-02-01
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-03-05
2019-12-12
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2020-01-16
2019-12-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2020-01-16
2018-10-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2018-11-22
2018-10-18
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2018-11-22
2018-10-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2018-11-22
2018-10-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2018-11-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AUR AHC COLONIAL HAVEN PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
BODIE, REBECCA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
DAC ACQUISITION LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
DAC OPCO, LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
DIVERSICARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LP.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
KELLMAN, FRANKLIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-13
current
pecos_ownership
KOHN, BRIAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
LEE, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEE, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
NEE, STEPHEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
NEE, STEPHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
RATNER, ERAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-13
current
pecos_ownership
REYNOLDS, TRENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
REYNOLDS, TRENT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
WEISHAAR, MATTHEW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KOHN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2022-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERAN RATNER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANKLIN KELLMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW WEISHAAR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REBECCA BODIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN NEE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-02-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN NEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRENT REYNOLDS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRENT REYNOLDS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM LEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM LEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$450,601
—
—
—
—
1
—
2024-06-30
$526,005
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-06-30
$280,643
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-05-12
$113,486
—
$110,868
—
$2,618
1
—
2021-12-31
$344,705
—
$322,413
—
$22,292
1
—
2020-12-31
$530,706
—
$491,608
—
$39,098
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01065
fmr
0
$966
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01065
acs median gross
1
$404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01065
fmr
1
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01065
acs median gross
2
$735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01065
fmr
2
$1,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01065
acs median gross
3
$528
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01065
fmr
3
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01065
acs median gross
4
$1,069
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01065
fmr
4
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01065
acs median gross
$715
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36744
acs median gross
1
$450
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36744
acs median gross
2
$719
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36744
acs median gross
3
$504
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36744
acs median gross
$669
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 36744
payment standard 110
0
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 90
0
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
safmr
0
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 110
1
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 90
1
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
safmr
1
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 110
3
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 90
3
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
safmr
3
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 110
4
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
payment standard 90
4
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36744
safmr
4
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.