Reads as: riskier than 44.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.95
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.48
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.96
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.94
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
53.7
2.95
0.48
0.46
2.01
2.96
14.8%
2025Q3
92
54.0
2.90
0.49
0.44
1.96
2.82
18.4%
2025Q2
91
51.9
2.88
0.51
0.41
1.96
2.78
25.3%
2025Q1
90
43.6
2.92
0.53
0.48
1.92
2.88
26.1%
2024Q4
92
44.0
2.99
0.53
0.56
1.90
2.91
28.1%
2024Q3
92
48.7
2.62
0.52
0.13
1.97
2.56
44.8%
2024Q2
91
49.4
2.75
0.50
0.26
1.99
2.67
48.5%
2024Q1
91
45.7
2.47
0.43
0.18
1.86
2.54
40.4%
2023Q4
92
47.9
2.50
0.38
0.24
1.88
2.57
34.2%
2023Q3
92
49.3
2.61
0.30
0.59
1.72
2.57
22.3%
2023Q2
91
49.4
3.08
0.32
0.67
2.09
3.17
15.3%
2023Q1
90
49.9
3.02
0.47
0.57
1.98
3.16
38.6%
2022Q4
92
50.2
2.79
0.34
0.48
1.97
2.94
54.4%
2022Q2
91
47.8
2.66
0.47
0.36
1.83
2.51
10.2%
2022Q1
90
48.8
2.89
0.52
0.32
2.05
2.53
13.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-07-27
2025-03-25
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-04-25
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-01-17
2024-12-19
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-01-17
2024-12-19
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-01-17
2024-12-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-01-17
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-01-17
2024-05-01
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-02-07
2024-01-25
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-02-19
2024-01-25
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2024-02-21
2023-07-17
Health
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
D
2023-08-09
2023-07-17
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-08-09
2023-07-17
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-08-09
2023-07-17
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2023-08-09
2023-07-17
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-08-09
2023-07-17
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-08-09
2023-07-17
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-08-09
2019-10-31
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2019-11-22
2019-10-31
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2019-11-15
2019-10-31
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
G
2019-12-02
2019-10-31
Health
F0923
Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both.
E
2019-11-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LAKEWOOD HOLDING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LAKEWOOD HOLDING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHRISTENSEN, COVEY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-26
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTENSEN, COVEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLEGG, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
HOPKINS, AMBER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOWE, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES, KENDRA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAKEWOOD HOLDING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
LAKEWOOD HOLDING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COVEY CHRISTENSEN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
80%
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COVEY CHRISTENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
80%
2015-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$868,550
—
$662,602
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$756,477
—
—
—
$20,129
2
propco
2022-12-31
$653,048
—
—
$9,758
$32,720
2
propco
2021-12-31
$543,766
—
—
$13,769
$78,686
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08059
acs median gross
0
$1,624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
0
$1,643
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
1
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
1
$1,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
2
$1,863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
2
$2,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
3
$2,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
3
$2,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
4
$2,560
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
4
$3,049
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
5
$2,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
acs median gross
$1,861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
acs recent mover gross
$1,996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80215
acs median gross
0
$1,630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80215
acs median gross
1
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80215
acs median gross
2
$1,804
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80215
acs median gross
3
$2,001
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80215
acs median gross
4
$1,889
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80215
acs median gross
$1,785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80215
acs recent mover gross
$1,816
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80215
payment standard 110
0
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 90
0
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
safmr
0
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 110
1
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 90
1
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
safmr
1
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 110
2
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 90
2
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
safmr
2
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 110
3
$2,805
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 90
3
$2,295
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
safmr
3
$2,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 110
4
$3,135
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
payment standard 90
4
$2,565
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80215
safmr
4
$2,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.