Reads as: riskier than 27.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
GROSSMAN STEPHEN
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.52
3.60
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.68
0.64
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.53
3.49
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.52
3.65
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
21.2
3.52
0.68
0.44
2.40
3.53
0.7%
2025Q3
92
18.9
3.82
0.89
0.36
2.57
3.80
0.0%
2025Q2
91
19.4
3.82
0.80
0.43
2.59
3.84
0.0%
2025Q1
90
21.3
3.54
0.85
0.29
2.39
3.52
0.0%
2024Q4
92
20.1
3.72
0.87
0.43
2.43
3.67
0.0%
2024Q3
92
17.8
3.87
0.65
0.68
2.54
3.77
0.0%
2024Q2
91
18.3
3.65
0.64
0.67
2.35
3.51
0.0%
2024Q1
91
19.6
3.51
0.46
0.80
2.26
3.33
0.0%
2023Q4
92
19.5
3.56
0.64
0.65
2.28
3.40
0.6%
2023Q3
92
19.2
3.43
0.65
0.60
2.19
3.28
0.4%
2023Q2
91
18.6
3.77
0.67
0.63
2.48
3.72
4.5%
2023Q1
90
17.7
3.85
0.68
0.69
2.48
3.74
8.3%
2022Q4
92
18.6
3.73
0.69
0.62
2.42
3.59
6.4%
2022Q3
92
20.4
3.44
0.63
0.55
2.26
3.38
0.0%
2022Q2
91
21.3
3.26
0.67
0.43
2.16
3.21
0.0%
2022Q1
90
20.0
3.51
0.71
0.49
2.31
3.49
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
6
D × 4E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-12
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2025-04-02
2024-02-14
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-03-06
2024-02-14
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-03-06
2024-02-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-03-06
2024-02-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BERG, MATTHEW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUHR, AMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON, JOANNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
GRACE LUTHERAN FOUNDATION, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRACE LUTHERAN FOUNDATION, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
GROSSIER, STEPHANY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
HUNGERFORD, KEVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
LARSON, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
LARSON, JAMIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-24
current
pecos_ownership
LARSON, LINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
LEE, RITA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
LILYQUIST, JENNY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-26
current
pecos_ownership
LISOWSKI, TONYA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
REID, ANITA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
RICH, TREVOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-26
current
pecos_ownership
TANDE, CHELSEA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-26
current
pecos_ownership
AMY DUHR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANITA REID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHELSEA TANDE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID LARSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMIE LARSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNY LILYQUIST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOANNE ERICKSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN HUNGERFORD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA LARSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW BERG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RITA LEE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANY GROSSIER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONYA LISOWSKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TREVOR RICH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 55011
acs median gross
0
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55011
fmr
0
$691
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55011
acs median gross
1
$552
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55011
fmr
1
$742
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55011
acs median gross
2
$888
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55011
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55011
acs median gross
3
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55011
fmr
3
$1,184
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55011
acs median gross
4
$1,182
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55011
fmr
4
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55011
acs median gross
5
$1,300
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55011
acs median gross
$876
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55011
acs recent mover gross
$935
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54755
acs median gross
1
$444
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54755
acs median gross
2
$911
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54755
acs median gross
3
$940
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54755
acs median gross
4
$1,160
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54755
acs median gross
$914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54755
acs recent mover gross
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 54755
payment standard 110
0
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 90
0
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
safmr
0
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 110
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 90
1
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
safmr
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 110
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 90
2
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
safmr
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 110
3
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 90
3
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
safmr
3
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 110
4
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
payment standard 90
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54755
safmr
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.