Screener / 155631

WHITE RIVER LODGE

snfIN

3710 KENNY SIMPSON LN, BEDFORD, IN 47421 · CCN 155631 · chain REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP

Composite

12.7 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 12.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies5 Licensure0 Ownership36 Related party5 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent32

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
financial risk	71.6	60.2	0.30	0.2308	16.52	in index
staffing risk	41.6	41.7	0.25	0.1923	8.00	in index
chow risk	45.2	43.4	0.15	0.1154	5.22	in index
regulatory risk	7.9	5.0	0.30	0.2308	1.82	in index
billing conduct	0.0	0.0	0.30	0.2308	0.00	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	0.0	A	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	25.0	B	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	61.8	C	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	60.2	C	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	3.6	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	1.1	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	5.0	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	41.7	B	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	57.4	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	37.4	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	47.4	C	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	64.8	C	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	4.9	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	4.9	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	41.7	B	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	41.7	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

1.1%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

61.0

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	-1.24
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
Occupancy	0.52	+0.52
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	3.00	-0.10
Contract staffing share	0.00	-0.10

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

3.6%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

95.3

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	+1.62
Occupancy	0.52	+0.97
Deficiencies, last 12 months	3.00	+0.87
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Staffing trend, last 4 quarters	0.74	+0.32
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Chain size (log)	2.30	-0.14
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.12

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	IN median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.42	2.85	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.29	0.40	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.22	2.71	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.51	2.90	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	38.3	3.42	0.29	0.79	2.34	3.22	0.0%
2025Q3	92	39.3	3.33	0.26	0.85	2.23	2.94	0.0%
2025Q2	91	40.3	3.03	0.36	0.75	1.92	2.84	0.1%
2025Q1	90	44.1	2.50	0.37	0.60	1.53	2.24	0.0%
2024Q4	92	39.1	2.68	0.38	0.61	1.69	2.58	1.5%
2024Q3	92	37.0	2.75	0.50	0.42	1.83	2.66	0.8%
2024Q2	91	39.8	2.62	0.38	0.48	1.75	2.50	1.1%
2024Q1	91	44.0	2.54	0.28	0.64	1.63	2.30	0.6%
2023Q4	92	41.7	2.66	0.31	0.68	1.67	2.43	1.1%
2023Q3	92	42.7	2.76	0.27	0.62	1.87	2.46	0.9%
2023Q2	91	42.8	2.52	0.30	0.63	1.59	2.15	0.7%
2023Q1	90	42.9	2.73	0.39	0.54	1.80	2.27	0.5%
2022Q4	92	39.9	3.04	0.59	0.47	1.98	2.65	0.0%
2022Q3	92	40.0	2.78	0.62	0.56	1.61	2.49	0.3%
2022Q2	91	36.8	3.00	0.73	0.53	1.74	2.78	0.0%
2022Q1	90	37.4	3.04	0.91	0.54	1.59	2.68	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

D × 5

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2026-03-27	Health	F0605	Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.	D	2026-04-06
2026-03-27	Health	F0695	Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.	D	2026-04-11
2026-03-27	Health	F0791	Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.	D	2026-04-11
2025-06-02	Health	F0761	Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.	D	2025-06-13
2025-06-02	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	D	2025-06-13

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
RPH ACQUISITIONS LLC	Other (financial or non-financial)	100%	2023-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
RUSH MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	100%	2012-08-01	current	pecos_ownership
WHITE RIVER LODGE LLC	Other (financial or non-financial)	100%	2024-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
WHITE RIVER LODGE LLC	Other (financial or non-financial)	100%	2023-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
BACON, MARK	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-06-29	current	pecos_ownership
BURKETT, KIPLAND	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-06-29	current	pecos_ownership
BYRNE, JOHN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-06-29	current	pecos_ownership
HAWORTH, ALBERT	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2021-05-01	current	pecos_ownership
JARMAN, RONALD	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2021-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
JENKINS, TANGIE	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2022-03-21	current	pecos_ownership
KINDER, ASHLEY	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2020-05-01	current	pecos_ownership
MARSH, DAWN	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	1994-04-15	current	pecos_ownership
MOHR, GERALD	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2020-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
PENN, CHRISTINA	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2021-05-01	current	pecos_ownership
REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	—	current	pecos_ownership
SMITH, BRADLEY	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2017-06-29	current	pecos_ownership
SMYTH, CHAD	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2017-03-30	current	pecos_ownership
SPURLIN, MARK	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2021-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
WILKINSON, PAUL	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-06-29	current	pecos_ownership
WHITE RIVER LODGE	Other (financial or non-financial)	100%	2020-01-01	ended 2020-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
WHITE RIVER LODGE	Other (financial or non-financial)	100%	2021-01-01	ended 2021-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
WHITE RIVER LODGE	Other (financial or non-financial)	100%	2022-01-01	ended 2022-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
ASHLEY KINDER	CORPORATE OFFICER	0%	2020-05-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
CHAD SMYTH	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	0%	2017-03-30	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
DAWN MARSH	CORPORATE OFFICER	0%	1994-04-15	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
GERALD MOHR	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2020-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JOHN BYRNE	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2017-06-29	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
KIPLAND BURKETT	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2017-06-29	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MARK BACON	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2017-06-29	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MARK SPURLIN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2021-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
RONALD JARMAN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2021-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ALBERT HAWORTH	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2021-05-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
BRADLEY SMITH	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2017-06-29	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA PENN	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2021-05-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
PAUL WILKINSON	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-06-29	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
TANGIE JENKINS	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2022-03-21	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-12-31	$561,643	$137,879	$423,764	—	—	6	propco
2023-12-31	$609,790	$113,537	$496,253	—	—	7	propco
2022-12-31	$541,615	$94,856	$446,759	—	—	6	propco
2021-12-31	$615,833	$91,354	$524,479	—	—	6	propco
2020-12-31	$528,291	$99,972	$428,319	—	—	6	propco

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — IN snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-01-08	HEALTHWIN HEALTH & REHABILITATION	—	—	—	145	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2025-01-01	ENVIVE OF LIBERTY	—	—	—	60	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2025-01-01	ENVIVE OF MUNCIE	—	—	—	60	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2024-08-01	FAIRWAY VILLAGE	—	—	—	53	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2024-07-01	ASBURY TOWERS HEALTH CARE CENTER	—	—	—	48	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2024-07-01	PILGRIM MANOR	—	—	—	78	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2024-07-01	CHASE CENTER	—	—	—	101	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2024-06-01	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT CHESTERTON	—	—	—	70	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT CHESTERTON LLC
2024-01-01	BRIARCLIFF HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	131	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2024-01-01	SOUTH SHORE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	100	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2024-01-01	EVANSVILLE PROTESTANT HOME	—	—	—	49	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2023-12-01	ROLLING HILLS HEALTHCARE CENTER	—	—	—	115	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 18093	acs median gross	0	$552	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 18093	fmr	0	$685	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 18093	acs median gross	1	$569	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 18093	fmr	1	$729	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 18093	acs median gross	2	$880	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 18093	fmr	2	$956	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 18093	acs median gross	3	$942	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 18093	fmr	3	$1,146	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 18093	acs median gross	4	$1,194	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 18093	fmr	4	$1,447	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 18093	acs median gross		$845	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 18093	acs recent mover gross		$868	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47421	acs median gross	1	$572	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47421	acs median gross	2	$890	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47421	acs median gross	3	$920	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47421	acs median gross		$835	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47421	acs recent mover gross		$833	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47421	payment standard 110	0	$781	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 90	0	$639	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	safmr	0	$710	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 110	1	$891	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 90	1	$729	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	safmr	1	$810	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 110	2	$1,089	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 90	2	$891	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	safmr	2	$990	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 110	3	$1,386	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 90	3	$1,134	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	safmr	3	$1,260	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 110	4	$1,650	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	payment standard 90	4	$1,350	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47421	safmr	4	$1,500	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.