Reads as: riskier than 56.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
JUNIPER MANAGEMENT LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
13
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
5.84
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.38
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.63
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.92
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
14.5
5.84
1.38
1.54
2.92
5.63
0.5%
2025Q3
92
15.2
5.68
1.34
1.33
3.00
5.24
0.0%
2025Q2
91
15.4
5.74
1.53
1.36
2.84
5.26
0.0%
2025Q1
90
13.9
6.07
1.44
1.48
3.15
5.46
0.0%
2024Q4
92
14.0
6.06
1.38
1.42
3.26
5.47
0.0%
2024Q3
92
15.4
5.13
1.26
1.37
2.49
4.89
0.0%
2024Q2
91
11.7
6.42
1.38
1.37
3.67
6.42
0.0%
2023Q3
92
13.5
4.02
1.01
0.74
2.27
3.47
0.0%
2023Q2
91
12.8
9.86
1.65
5.16
3.06
8.59
0.0%
2022Q4
92
14.2
7.26
1.36
3.78
2.12
6.19
0.0%
2022Q3
92
15.1
7.08
1.59
3.17
2.32
6.41
0.0%
2022Q2
91
14.6
7.26
1.70
3.43
2.13
7.20
0.0%
2022Q1
90
13.0
9.31
2.24
4.10
2.97
8.92
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
—
2025-06-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-18
Health
F0847
Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse.
E
2025-07-31
2025-06-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-07-31
2024-09-19
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-11-18
2024-09-19
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-11-18
2024-09-19
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-11-18
2024-09-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-11-18
2024-09-19
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-11-18
2024-09-19
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2024-11-18
2023-11-03
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-03
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-03
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-03
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-03
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-03
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-03
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2023-12-20
2023-11-03
Health
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
D
2024-01-02
2023-11-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-01-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FALCON CAPITAL LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
POITRAS, JAMES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
POITRAS, PATRICIA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
COPPERHILL ASSOCIATES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
DONATO, LINDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
JUNIPER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
JUNIPER MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRESSLER, STEPHANIE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-06-24
current
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE PRESSLER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2021-06-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES POITRAS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA POITRAS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JUNIPER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JUNIPER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
LINDA DONATO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,013,723
—
$485,231
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$1,760,937
—
$173,918
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$1,884,194
—
$398,954
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$1,930,725
—
$331,853
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$1,993,069
—
$418,887
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42017
acs median gross
0
$1,234
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42017
fmr
0
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42017
acs median gross
1
$1,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42017
fmr
1
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42017
acs median gross
2
$1,702
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42017
fmr
2
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42017
acs median gross
3
$1,942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42017
fmr
3
$2,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42017
acs median gross
4
$2,322
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42017
fmr
4
$2,423
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42017
acs median gross
5
$2,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42017
acs median gross
$1,605
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42017
acs recent mover gross
$1,835
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19020
acs median gross
0
$1,351
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19020
acs median gross
1
$1,563
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19020
acs median gross
2
$1,691
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19020
acs median gross
3
$1,800
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19020
acs median gross
4
$1,295
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19020
acs median gross
$1,622
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19020
acs recent mover gross
$1,917
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 19020
payment standard 110
0
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 90
0
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
safmr
0
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 110
1
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 90
1
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
safmr
1
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 110
2
$2,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 90
2
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
safmr
2
$2,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 110
3
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 90
3
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
safmr
3
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 110
4
$3,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
payment standard 90
4
$2,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19020
safmr
4
$2,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.