290 S MONACO PKWY, DENVER, CO 80224 · CCN 065241 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
69.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
160
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 69.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.3 vs natl
PANTHER MASTER TENANT LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.80
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.41
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.59
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.89
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
147.8
2.80
0.41
0.86
1.53
2.59
1.2%
2025Q3
92
143.2
2.90
0.43
0.80
1.66
2.75
6.2%
2025Q2
91
136.9
2.81
0.49
0.78
1.54
2.73
5.2%
2025Q1
90
136.1
2.92
0.47
0.89
1.56
2.83
9.4%
2024Q4
92
128.9
3.15
0.53
0.97
1.64
2.81
10.7%
2024Q3
92
128.6
3.02
0.59
0.86
1.58
2.70
9.4%
2024Q2
91
120.8
2.92
0.60
0.78
1.54
2.71
6.0%
2024Q1
91
116.3
2.48
0.56
0.68
1.23
2.27
1.2%
2023Q4
92
100.5
2.91
0.68
0.77
1.46
2.59
0.0%
2023Q3
92
88.5
3.11
0.88
0.69
1.54
2.77
0.1%
2023Q2
91
88.6
3.40
0.89
0.62
1.88
3.19
1.5%
2023Q1
90
96.3
3.31
0.76
0.63
1.93
3.05
6.8%
2022Q4
92
101.8
3.13
0.67
0.59
1.87
2.97
22.7%
2022Q3
92
101.4
2.95
0.71
0.58
1.66
2.75
23.6%
2022Q2
91
99.0
2.95
0.76
0.52
1.67
2.78
29.3%
2022Q1
90
93.5
3.33
0.94
0.59
1.79
3.21
28.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
D
2025-12-10
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0568
Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.
D
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
E
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
D
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
E
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
F
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0774
Help the resident with transportation to and from laboratory services outside of the facility.
D
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2024-09-06
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0940
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members.
F
2024-09-06
2024-03-07
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2024-03-30
2024-03-07
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-03-30
2024-03-07
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-03-30
2024-03-07
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2024-03-30
2024-03-07
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-03-30
2024-03-07
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
K
2024-03-15
2024-03-07
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-03-30
2024-03-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-03-30
2023-10-25
Health · complaint
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-11-11
2023-09-28
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2023-11-17
2022-12-15
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
E
2023-02-24
2022-12-15
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-02-15
2022-12-15
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-01-10
2022-12-15
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-02-24
2022-12-15
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-02-24
2021-08-26
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2021-09-30
2021-08-26
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2021-09-30
2021-08-26
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2021-09-30
2021-08-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2021-09-30
2021-08-26
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2021-09-30
2021-08-26
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2021-09-30
2021-08-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2021-09-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PANTHER MASTER TENANT, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ASHCROFT, JONATHAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HORTON, CHRISTOPHER
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-07-20
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER HORTON
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-07-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN ASHCROFT
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
7
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$971,694
—
$971,694
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$354,013
—
$354,013
—
—
1
—
2023-08-31
$91,796
—
$28,638
$44,657
$18,501
3
—
2023-05-31
$482,510
—
$187,373
$138,455
$156,682
3
—
2023-01-31
$477,011
—
$443,932
—
—
1
—
2022-05-31
$412,010
—
$412,010
—
—
2
—
2021-05-31
$515,174
—
$515,174
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08031
acs median gross
0
$1,564
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
0
$1,643
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
1
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
1
$1,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
2
$2,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
2
$2,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
3
$2,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
3
$2,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
4
$2,551
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
fmr
4
$3,049
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08031
acs median gross
5
$2,591
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
acs median gross
$1,831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08031
acs recent mover gross
$1,948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80224
acs median gross
1
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80224
acs median gross
2
$1,782
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80224
acs median gross
3
$2,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80224
acs median gross
4
$2,746
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80224
acs median gross
$1,670
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80224
acs recent mover gross
$1,742
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80224
payment standard 110
0
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 90
0
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
safmr
0
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 110
1
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 90
1
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
safmr
1
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 110
2
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 90
2
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
safmr
2
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 110
3
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 90
3
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
safmr
3
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 110
4
$3,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
payment standard 90
4
$2,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80224
safmr
4
$2,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.