113 WEST MCMURRAY ROAD, MCMURRAY, PA 15317 · CCN 395783 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
68.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
140
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 68.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MURRAY JASON
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.22
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.68
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.04
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.29
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
110.2
3.22
0.68
0.77
1.78
3.04
31.4%
2025Q3
92
110.9
3.21
0.65
0.77
1.79
3.07
38.1%
2025Q2
91
107.5
3.23
0.74
0.70
1.79
3.00
32.1%
2025Q1
90
109.2
3.23
0.79
0.64
1.80
2.95
27.6%
2024Q4
92
95.3
3.35
0.93
0.58
1.83
3.07
24.3%
2024Q3
92
108.5
2.96
0.67
0.64
1.64
2.87
21.8%
2024Q2
91
105.6
2.81
0.66
0.68
1.48
2.71
11.6%
2024Q1
91
108.4
2.85
0.66
0.67
1.52
2.79
17.1%
2023Q4
92
101.7
2.90
0.66
0.63
1.61
2.85
16.4%
2023Q3
92
100.7
2.92
0.66
0.53
1.73
2.86
13.2%
2023Q2
91
101.8
3.02
0.62
0.71
1.69
2.88
8.8%
2023Q1
90
98.0
3.01
0.58
0.73
1.70
2.92
19.9%
2022Q4
92
97.4
2.64
0.45
0.79
1.40
2.73
26.1%
2022Q3
92
93.5
2.42
0.50
0.73
1.19
2.49
14.2%
2022Q2
91
97.6
2.40
0.55
0.68
1.18
2.51
13.6%
2022Q1
90
104.5
2.51
0.64
0.63
1.25
2.66
19.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
19
C × 1D × 10E × 6F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-06
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
—
2025-12-10
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2026-02-02
2025-12-10
Health
F0575
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
C
2026-02-02
2025-12-10
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2026-02-02
2025-12-10
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2026-02-02
2025-12-10
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2026-02-02
2025-12-10
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2026-02-02
2025-12-10
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-02-02
2025-12-10
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-02-02
2025-12-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-02-02
2025-06-12
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-07-22
2024-11-20
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2025-01-01
2024-07-24
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-08-21
2023-11-30
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-01-17
2023-11-30
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
E
2024-01-17
2023-11-30
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-01-17
2023-11-30
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2024-01-17
2023-11-30
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-01-17
2023-11-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-01-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PA HOLDCO 1 CANONSBURG LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
113 WEST MCMURRAY ROAD PA OWNER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BICE, MCKAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
BICE, MCKAY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRETZ, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURRAY, JASON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PA HOLDCO 2 CANONSBURG LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY GRETZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MCKAY BICE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MCKAY BICE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$3,929,151
$1,426,106
$617,584
$795,936
$1,015,369
11
—
2023-09-30
$896,350
—
$293,730
—
$576,337
5
—
2023-01-31
$282,125
—
$282,125
—
—
2
—
2022-05-31
$389,447
—
$389,447
—
—
2
—
2021-05-31
$430,454
—
$430,454
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42125
acs median gross
0
$655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42125
fmr
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42125
acs median gross
1
$780
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42125
fmr
1
$1,077
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42125
acs median gross
2
$978
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42125
fmr
2
$1,299
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42125
acs median gross
3
$1,181
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42125
fmr
3
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42125
acs median gross
4
$1,548
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42125
fmr
4
$1,789
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42125
acs median gross
$949
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42125
acs recent mover gross
$1,169
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15317
acs median gross
0
$819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15317
acs median gross
1
$949
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15317
acs median gross
2
$1,387
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15317
acs median gross
3
$1,521
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15317
acs median gross
4
$1,703
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15317
acs median gross
$1,224
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15317
acs recent mover gross
$1,686
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 15317
payment standard 110
0
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 90
0
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
safmr
0
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 110
1
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 90
1
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
safmr
1
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 110
2
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 90
2
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
safmr
2
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 110
3
$2,057
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 90
3
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
safmr
3
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 110
4
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
payment standard 90
4
$1,809
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15317
safmr
4
$2,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.