Reads as: riskier than 5.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
CAPITAL FUNDING LLC
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.66
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.56
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.33
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.78
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
143.6
3.66
0.56
0.69
2.41
3.33
0.0%
2025Q3
92
146.0
3.68
0.55
0.70
2.43
3.32
0.0%
2025Q2
91
143.8
3.49
0.60
0.61
2.27
3.15
0.0%
2025Q1
90
143.3
3.50
0.66
0.56
2.28
3.19
0.0%
2024Q4
92
142.1
3.63
0.59
0.65
2.40
3.26
0.0%
2024Q3
92
139.4
3.40
0.47
0.64
2.28
3.05
0.0%
2024Q2
91
141.5
3.26
0.50
0.61
2.15
2.95
0.0%
2024Q1
91
141.7
3.35
0.50
0.54
2.31
3.05
0.0%
2023Q4
92
142.8
3.40
0.44
0.56
2.39
3.08
0.0%
2023Q3
92
141.8
3.46
0.47
0.58
2.41
3.10
0.0%
2023Q2
91
148.3
3.05
0.45
0.55
2.05
2.65
0.0%
2023Q1
90
145.4
2.96
0.40
0.61
1.95
2.61
0.0%
2022Q4
92
141.1
3.24
0.49
0.69
2.05
2.83
0.0%
2022Q3
92
132.2
3.71
0.51
0.74
2.46
3.29
0.0%
2022Q2
91
127.1
3.60
0.44
0.94
2.22
3.05
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
C × 3D × 6F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2020-01-23
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2020-02-27
2020-01-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2020-02-27
2018-11-29
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2019-01-03
2018-11-29
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
C
2019-01-03
2018-11-29
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-01-03
2018-11-29
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
C
2019-01-03
2017-11-16
Health
F0164
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2017-12-21
2017-11-16
Health
F0241
Provide care for residents in a way that maintains or improves their dignity and respect in full recognition of their individuality.
D
2017-12-21
2017-11-16
Health
F0281
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2017-12-21
2017-11-16
Health
F0282
Provide care by qualified persons according to each resident's written plan of care.
D
2017-12-21
2017-11-16
Health
F0312
Assist those residents who need help with eating/drinking, grooming and personal and oral hygiene.
D
2017-12-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ASHLAND PLACE HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ASHLAND PLACE HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
NORTHPORT HOLDING OPERATIONS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ESTES, JAMES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
51%
2013-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES N ESTES JR FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER LEE ESTES TR 031093
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
ASHLAND PLACE HEALTH REALTY LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROUGHTON, CIDNY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
CAPITAL FUNDING LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLDING FACILITIES GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LONG, PHILLIP
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MACDONALD-LAMIER, STARANN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
RASCO, LYNN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SERVISFIRST BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2018-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
SIMMONS, ALICE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
ASHLAND PLACE HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
ASHLAND PLACE HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
ASHLAND PLACE HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
CIDNY BROUGHTON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2023-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ESTES
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2013-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON AGEE
OTHER
49%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
OTHER
49%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALICE SIMMONS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2024-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN RASCO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
33%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STARANN MACDONALD-LAMIER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
33%
2023-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NHS MANAGEMENT, LLC
OTHER
—
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$8,185,493
—
$861,716
—
$5,848,657
3
propco
2024-06-30
$8,475,478
—
$793,755
—
$5,853,603
3
propco
2023-06-30
$8,329,923
—
$783,797
—
$5,569,834
3
propco
2022-06-30
$7,371,334
—
$691,150
—
$4,853,009
3
propco
2021-06-30
$2,549,870
—
$628,298
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01097
acs median gross
0
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
0
$854
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
1
$867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
1
$919
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
2
$1,014
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
2
$1,083
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
3
$1,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
3
$1,414
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
4
$1,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
4
$1,445
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
5
$1,567
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
acs median gross
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
acs recent mover gross
$1,165
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36607
acs median gross
1
$487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36607
acs median gross
2
$1,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36607
acs median gross
$969
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36607
acs recent mover gross
$853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 36607
payment standard 110
0
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 90
0
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
safmr
0
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 110
1
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 90
1
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
safmr
1
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 110
3
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 90
3
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
safmr
3
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 110
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
payment standard 90
4
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36607
safmr
4
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.