2611 JONES AVE, PUEBLO, CO 81004 · CCN 065232 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
98.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
146
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 98.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Top-decile risk vs 4–5 star rating
12.3
this facility
2026-07-29
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.3 vs natl
PANTHER MASTER TENANT LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
REDDY VIKAS
13 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.20
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.21
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.90
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.32
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
67.3
2.20
0.21
0.52
1.46
1.90
5.9%
2025Q3
92
59.7
3.43
0.44
0.92
2.07
3.25
28.6%
2025Q2
91
59.7
2.42
0.40
0.47
1.55
2.18
0.0%
2025Q1
90
55.9
2.78
0.50
0.58
1.70
2.60
0.0%
2024Q4
92
53.5
3.04
0.60
0.50
1.94
2.84
0.0%
2024Q3
92
58.7
3.14
0.38
0.60
2.16
2.86
0.0%
2024Q2
91
61.1
3.02
0.32
0.80
1.90
2.79
0.1%
2024Q1
91
66.7
2.90
0.24
0.90
1.76
2.70
2.5%
2023Q4
92
78.0
2.93
0.28
0.78
1.87
2.77
0.0%
2023Q3
92
89.2
2.90
0.38
0.81
1.71
2.73
0.5%
2023Q2
91
92.1
3.00
0.60
0.76
1.64
2.74
0.9%
2023Q1
90
89.9
3.04
0.76
0.67
1.61
2.88
2.1%
2022Q4
92
85.4
3.15
0.78
0.73
1.64
2.92
4.2%
2022Q3
92
93.0
3.20
0.65
0.63
1.92
3.10
8.4%
2022Q2
91
103.0
2.69
0.56
0.58
1.54
2.54
4.9%
2022Q1
90
94.1
2.88
0.59
0.58
1.71
2.94
2.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-03-06
2025-12-05
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-12-23
2024-10-22
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2024-11-18
2024-04-30
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-05-31
2024-04-30
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-05-31
2024-04-30
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-31
2024-04-30
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-05-31
2023-11-02
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
G
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-01-18
2023-11-02
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-01-18
2023-11-02
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-12-06
2023-11-02
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2023-12-06
2023-09-06
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-10-18
2023-09-06
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-10-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PANTHER MASTER TENANT, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLLAZO, ELIZABETH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REDDY, VIKAS
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH COLLAZO
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-01-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VIKAS REDDY
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-07-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$530,388
—
$530,388
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$323,087
—
$323,087
—
—
1
—
2023-08-31
$565,780
—
$237,495
$214,597
$113,688
3
—
2022-12-31
$1,153,178
—
$613,461
$388,975
$150,742
3
—
2021-12-31
$1,791,590
—
$589,174
$465,958
$731,358
6
—
2020-12-31
$1,949,554
—
$532,070
$437,164
$948,868
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08101
acs median gross
0
$726
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08101
fmr
0
$875
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08101
acs median gross
1
$827
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08101
fmr
1
$967
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08101
acs median gross
2
$1,127
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08101
fmr
2
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08101
acs median gross
3
$1,337
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08101
fmr
3
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08101
acs median gross
4
$1,314
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08101
fmr
4
$1,893
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08101
acs median gross
5
$1,947
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08101
acs median gross
$1,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08101
acs recent mover gross
$1,240
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81004
acs median gross
0
$734
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81004
acs median gross
1
$788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81004
acs median gross
2
$1,101
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81004
acs median gross
3
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81004
acs median gross
4
$1,029
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81004
acs median gross
5
$1,958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81004
acs median gross
$1,065
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81004
acs recent mover gross
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 81004
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 110
1
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 90
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
safmr
1
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 110
2
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 90
2
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
safmr
2
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 110
3
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 90
3
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
safmr
3
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 110
4
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
payment standard 90
4
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81004
safmr
4
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.