401 ARNOLD STREET N.E., CULLMAN, AL 35055 · CCN 015437 · chain M MELB OPCO LLC
Composite
29.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
102
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 29.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.35
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.33
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.15
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.42
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
91.1
3.35
0.33
0.68
2.34
3.15
0.0%
2025Q3
92
91.3
3.17
0.24
0.65
2.28
2.74
0.0%
2025Q2
91
92.0
3.22
0.19
0.70
2.33
2.92
0.0%
2025Q1
90
92.6
3.05
0.17
0.72
2.15
2.89
0.0%
2024Q4
92
88.4
3.12
0.19
0.77
2.15
2.93
0.0%
2024Q3
92
87.0
3.40
0.24
0.74
2.42
3.25
0.0%
2024Q2
91
92.5
3.22
0.22
0.63
2.37
2.82
0.0%
2024Q1
91
92.0
3.08
0.19
0.67
2.23
2.66
0.0%
2023Q4
92
87.8
3.37
0.18
0.75
2.44
2.75
0.0%
2023Q3
92
86.0
3.28
0.17
0.78
2.32
2.58
0.0%
2023Q2
91
88.4
2.98
0.19
0.66
2.12
2.37
0.0%
2023Q1
90
85.4
2.82
0.19
0.61
2.02
2.46
0.0%
2022Q4
92
85.6
3.08
0.14
0.69
2.26
2.73
0.0%
2022Q3
92
86.0
2.97
0.19
0.61
2.17
2.58
0.0%
2022Q2
91
82.2
2.82
0.24
0.62
1.96
2.54
0.0%
2022Q1
90
78.2
3.02
0.29
0.66
2.07
2.75
0.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
D × 9E × 2F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2019-09-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2019-10-18
2019-09-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-10-18
2018-08-23
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2018-09-17
2018-08-23
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2018-09-17
2018-08-23
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2018-09-17
2018-08-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2018-09-17
2017-09-07
Health
F0253
Provide housekeeping and maintenance services.
D
2017-10-05
2017-09-07
Health
F0279
Develop a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2017-10-05
2017-09-07
Health
F0280
Allow residents the right to participate in the planning or revision of care and treatment.
F
2017-10-05
2017-09-07
Health
F0315
Ensure that each resident who enters the nursing home without a catheter is not given a catheter, unless medically necessary, and that incontinent patients receive proper services to prevent urinary tract infections and restore normal bladder functions.
D
2017-10-05
2017-09-07
Health
F0323
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provide adequate supervision to prevent avoidable accidents.
E
2017-10-05
2017-09-07
Health
F0520
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies quarterly, and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2017-10-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AL SNF ASSOCIATES LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
AL SNF ASSOCIATES TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
AL SNF HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
AL SNF HOLDINGS TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
ALABAMA OPCO MANAGER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
ALABAMA SNF OPERATIONS HOLDINGS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
CH ALABAMA HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
CW ALABAMA HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
GOODMAN, MENUCHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUGGINS, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
M MELB OPCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
M MELB OPCO TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MELB OPCO MANAGER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MS ALABAMA HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
S MELB OPCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
S MELB OPCO TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SS ALABAMA HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2026-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
STRAUSS, SUSAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-25
current
pecos_ownership
VERTEX FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-22
current
pecos_ownership
VERTEX FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAGNER, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
AGE-FOLSOM (LESSOR)
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
AGE-FOLSOM (LESSOR)
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
AGE-FOLSOM (LESSOR)
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-03-23
hcris_a_8_1
USA HEALTHCARE INC. (SUB-LESSOR)
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
USA HEALTHCARE INC. (SUB-LESSOR)
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
USA HEALTHCARE INC. (SUB-LESSOR)
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-03-23
hcris_a_8_1
CH ALABAMA HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
49%
2023-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YISROEL HERZKA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
49%
2023-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MS ALABAMA HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2023-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SS ALABAMA HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2023-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID HUGGINS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN WAGNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
M MELB OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENUCHA GOODMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VERTEX FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$587,549
—
$587,549
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$424,485
—
$4,015
—
—
1
—
2023-03-23
$1,698,574
$314,002
$50,628
$451,301
$20,347
10
propco
2022-06-30
$2,700,783
$393,774
$76,996
$704,815
$59,477
10
propco
2021-06-30
$2,370,645
$383,830
$75,117
$539,411
$44,085
10
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01043
acs median gross
0
$698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01043
fmr
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01043
acs median gross
1
$647
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01043
fmr
1
$670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01043
acs median gross
2
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01043
fmr
2
$879
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01043
acs median gross
3
$1,038
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01043
fmr
3
$1,137
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01043
acs median gross
4
$1,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01043
fmr
4
$1,381
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01043
acs median gross
5
$1,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01043
acs median gross
$908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01043
acs recent mover gross
$1,075
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35055
acs median gross
1
$641
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35055
acs median gross
2
$932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35055
acs median gross
3
$1,114
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35055
acs median gross
$923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35055
acs recent mover gross
$956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 35055
payment standard 110
0
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 90
0
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
safmr
0
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 110
1
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 90
1
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
safmr
1
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 110
2
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 90
2
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
safmr
2
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 110
3
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 90
3
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
safmr
3
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 110
4
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
payment standard 90
4
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35055
safmr
4
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.