Reads as: riskier than 42.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MURRAY JASON
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.48
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.94
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.48
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.48
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
143.2
3.48
0.94
0.52
2.03
3.48
28.5%
2025Q3
92
135.5
3.33
0.89
0.50
1.94
3.27
27.2%
2025Q2
91
132.9
3.07
1.06
0.38
1.63
3.00
10.2%
2025Q1
90
146.4
3.44
1.27
0.46
1.71
3.21
16.1%
2024Q4
92
146.7
3.45
1.26
0.41
1.78
3.32
21.9%
2024Q3
92
154.9
3.17
1.13
0.30
1.73
3.11
20.6%
2024Q2
91
151.4
3.01
1.09
0.30
1.62
2.97
18.4%
2024Q1
91
158.3
3.03
1.00
0.44
1.59
2.89
19.6%
2023Q4
92
156.1
2.96
0.94
0.44
1.59
2.83
24.1%
2023Q3
92
157.8
2.97
0.95
0.45
1.56
2.79
18.1%
2023Q2
91
158.3
3.14
0.98
0.48
1.67
2.94
9.7%
2023Q1
90
154.7
3.16
1.08
0.43
1.65
2.98
8.0%
2022Q4
92
148.9
3.19
1.04
0.44
1.71
3.16
16.7%
2022Q3
92
141.3
3.13
1.04
0.48
1.61
3.09
12.2%
2022Q2
91
138.9
3.04
1.02
0.52
1.50
3.02
13.3%
2022Q1
90
145.9
3.28
1.02
0.59
1.67
3.18
28.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
32
B × 2D × 17E × 12F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-09-05
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-10-20
2025-05-16
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-06-10
2025-05-16
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
E
2025-06-10
2025-05-16
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2025-06-10
2025-05-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-06-10
2025-05-16
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-06-10
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-04-01
2024-12-12
Health · complaint
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2025-01-08
2024-12-12
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-01-08
2024-12-12
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-01-08
2024-09-09
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-10-08
2024-09-09
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
F
2024-10-08
2024-06-13
Health · complaint
F0603
Protect each resident from separation (from other residents, his/her room, or confinement to his/her room).
D
2024-07-01
2024-06-13
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-07-01
2024-05-09
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2024-06-18
2024-05-09
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2024-06-18
2024-05-09
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2024-06-18
2024-05-09
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2024-06-18
2024-05-09
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-06-18
2024-05-09
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-06-18
2024-05-09
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-06-18
2024-05-09
Health
F0944
Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program.
B
2024-06-18
2024-05-09
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
B
2024-06-18
2024-04-08
Health · complaint
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
E
2024-05-16
2023-12-19
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-19
Health · complaint
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
D
2024-02-01
2023-10-05
Health · complaint
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2023-11-10
2023-05-05
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2023-06-12
2023-05-05
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2023-06-12
2023-05-05
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-06-12
2023-05-05
Health
F0825
Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident.
D
2023-06-12
2023-05-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-06-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
APT, FREDERICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURRAY, JASON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PA HOLDCO 1 WHITEHALL LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PA HOLDCO 2 WHITEHALL LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-10-31
$2,234,849
$690,756
$336,422
$619,659
$552,568
10
—
2024-06-30
$6,267,294
$1,736,783
$1,009,266
$1,787,748
$1,651,501
10
—
2023-06-30
$854,374
—
$273,057
—
$564,113
5
—
2023-01-31
$678,258
—
$678,258
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$636,472
—
$636,472
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$596,113
—
$596,113
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42003
acs median gross
0
$1,022
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42003
fmr
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42003
acs median gross
1
$965
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42003
fmr
1
$1,077
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42003
acs median gross
2
$1,201
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42003
fmr
2
$1,299
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42003
acs median gross
3
$1,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42003
fmr
3
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42003
acs median gross
4
$1,624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42003
fmr
4
$1,789
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42003
acs median gross
5
$1,697
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42003
acs median gross
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42003
acs recent mover gross
$1,351
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15236
acs median gross
0
$759
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15236
acs median gross
1
$1,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15236
acs median gross
2
$1,158
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15236
acs median gross
3
$1,348
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15236
acs median gross
$1,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15236
acs recent mover gross
$1,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 15236
payment standard 110
0
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 90
0
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
safmr
0
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 110
1
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 90
1
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
safmr
1
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 110
2
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 90
2
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
safmr
2
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 110
3
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 90
3
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
safmr
3
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 110
4
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
payment standard 90
4
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15236
safmr
4
$1,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.