Reads as: riskier than 5.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
REGIONS BANK
63 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.94
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.38
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.16
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
138.5
2.94
0.39
0.60
1.95
2.38
0.0%
2025Q3
92
136.5
3.01
0.44
0.59
1.98
2.39
0.0%
2025Q2
91
139.9
3.08
0.42
0.64
2.03
2.41
0.0%
2025Q1
90
142.7
2.97
0.49
0.58
1.89
2.29
0.0%
2024Q4
92
146.0
2.89
0.50
0.51
1.88
2.24
0.0%
2024Q3
92
143.3
3.07
0.51
0.57
1.98
2.41
0.0%
2024Q2
91
145.4
2.96
0.48
0.59
1.89
2.41
0.0%
2024Q1
91
145.9
2.75
0.44
0.53
1.78
2.26
0.0%
2023Q4
92
141.8
2.67
0.46
0.47
1.73
2.26
0.0%
2023Q3
92
138.0
2.37
0.45
0.52
1.40
1.88
0.0%
2023Q2
91
135.0
2.41
0.43
0.56
1.42
1.92
0.0%
2023Q1
90
137.4
2.32
0.42
0.51
1.39
1.83
0.0%
2022Q4
92
131.8
2.35
0.52
0.50
1.34
1.81
0.0%
2022Q2
91
134.2
2.41
0.38
0.62
1.41
2.01
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
D × 5E × 3F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2019-06-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2019-07-26
2019-06-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-07-26
2019-06-21
Health
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
E
2019-07-26
2019-06-21
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2019-07-26
2019-06-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-07-26
2019-06-21
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2019-07-26
2019-06-21
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2019-07-26
2018-07-19
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2018-08-23
2018-07-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2018-08-23
2018-07-19
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
F
2018-08-23
2018-07-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2018-08-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NHS OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2002-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
PARK MANOR HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PARK MANOR HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ESTES, JAMES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
89%
2002-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2002-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER LEE ESTES TR 031093
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2002-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
BOYD, CASEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
DUFFY, MARCIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
LONG, PHILLIP
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURPHY, VICKIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
PARK MANOR HEALTH REALTY, LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RASCO, LYNN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
REGIONS BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2012-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES ESTES
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2002-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PARK MANOR HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
PARK MANOR HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
PARK MANOR HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
VICKIE MURPHY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2023-06-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CASEY BOYD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2023-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN RASCO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
33%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARCIA DUFFY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2003-12-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON AGEE
OTHER
11%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
OTHER
11%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NHS MANAGEMENT LLC
OTHER
0%
2007-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$7,643,895
—
$868,021
—
$5,897,159
3
propco
2024-06-30
$7,180,005
—
$794,087
—
$5,685,066
3
propco
2023-06-30
$7,108,279
—
$742,626
—
$5,542,209
3
propco
2022-06-30
$6,613,806
—
$688,892
—
$5,076,170
3
propco
2021-06-30
$1,552,179
—
$666,546
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01125
acs median gross
0
$857
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01125
fmr
0
$966
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01125
acs median gross
1
$892
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01125
fmr
1
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01125
acs median gross
2
$1,032
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01125
fmr
2
$1,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01125
acs median gross
3
$1,162
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01125
fmr
3
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01125
acs median gross
4
$1,295
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01125
fmr
4
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01125
acs median gross
5
$1,338
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01125
acs median gross
$1,037
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01125
acs recent mover gross
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35476
acs median gross
1
$932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35476
acs median gross
2
$953
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35476
acs median gross
3
$1,105
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35476
acs median gross
4
$1,131
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35476
acs median gross
$963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 35476
acs recent mover gross
$1,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 35476
payment standard 110
0
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 90
0
$837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
safmr
0
$930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 110
1
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 90
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
safmr
1
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 110
2
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 90
2
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
safmr
2
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 110
3
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 90
3
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
safmr
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 110
4
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
payment standard 90
4
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 35476
safmr
4
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.