Reads as: riskier than 76.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
ELLINGSON ERIK
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
AUGUSTANA CARE
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
PARKS CHARLES
6 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.40
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.31
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.36
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.41
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
39.6
4.40
1.31
0.14
2.94
4.36
3.2%
2025Q3
92
38.9
4.78
1.25
0.43
3.10
4.71
7.4%
2025Q2
91
39.6
4.76
1.16
0.56
3.04
4.72
4.4%
2025Q1
90
41.3
4.52
1.02
0.59
2.91
4.41
8.0%
2024Q4
92
40.1
4.76
1.06
0.45
3.25
4.67
8.7%
2024Q3
92
41.3
4.31
0.89
0.47
2.96
4.27
8.7%
2024Q2
91
39.5
4.50
0.95
0.58
2.96
4.48
24.7%
2024Q1
91
41.1
4.42
0.80
0.62
3.00
4.18
34.5%
2023Q4
92
42.4
4.03
0.54
0.56
2.93
4.04
32.9%
2023Q3
92
42.4
3.88
0.70
0.47
2.71
3.79
49.8%
2023Q2
91
37.5
4.20
1.04
0.26
2.90
4.17
52.3%
2023Q1
90
32.7
4.33
1.36
0.18
2.80
4.40
41.3%
2022Q4
92
33.9
4.34
1.35
0.12
2.86
4.30
35.8%
2022Q3
92
36.7
4.16
1.15
0.36
2.65
3.92
27.9%
2022Q2
91
34.1
4.40
1.11
0.49
2.81
3.94
39.9%
2022Q1
90
33.1
5.07
0.96
0.44
3.67
4.66
43.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2026-04-02
2026-03-10
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-04-02
2026-03-10
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-04-02
2026-03-10
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-12-11
2025-08-20
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2025-09-16
2025-06-18
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2025-07-17
2024-09-19
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-10-17
2024-09-19
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-10-17
2024-09-19
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2024-10-17
2024-09-19
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-10-17
2024-09-19
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-10-17
2023-03-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-04-17
2023-03-16
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2023-04-17
2021-12-02
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2022-01-19
2021-12-02
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-01-19
2021-12-02
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2022-01-19
2021-12-02
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2022-01-19
2021-12-02
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2022-01-19
2021-12-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-01-19
2021-12-02
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2022-01-19
2021-12-02
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2022-01-19
2021-12-02
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
G
2022-01-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
44
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AUGUSTANA CARE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASSIA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
APOSTOLIK, ANGELA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-15
current
pecos_ownership
BEAL, TESSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEAL, TESSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
BRADY, JAIME
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, ANGELA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASSIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASSIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
CORNISH, SHELLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
CORNISH, SHELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ECKERT, NATALIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
ELIZALDE, JOSE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-15
current
pecos_ownership
ELLINGSON, ERIK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELLER, GARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
KERN, MATTHEW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIBBON, PAUL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MASON, KRISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
NYE, GERALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PARKS, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SALAZ, GERALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOBIESKI, ROBIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-26
current
pecos_ownership
STADTHERR, SEELOCHANI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
YOUNGQUIST, KATHRYN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANGELA BROWN
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES PARKS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIK ELLINGSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERALD NYE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAIME BRADY
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHRYN YOUNGQUIST
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISSA MASON
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW KERN
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL LIBBON
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEELOCHANI STADTHERR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANGELA APOSTOLIK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY KELLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERALD SALAZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSE ELIZALDE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATALIE ECKERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBIN SOBIESKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELLY CORNISH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELLY CORNISH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TESSA BEAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TESSA BEAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$737,849
—
—
$335,140
$36,515
8
—
2023-12-31
$721,896
—
—
$374,864
$31,322
7
—
2022-12-31
$681,264
—
—
$360,180
$21,882
7
—
2021-12-31
$797,368
—
—
$438,438
$21,719
7
—
2020-12-31
$674,169
—
—
$379,378
$20,653
7
—
2019-12-31
$207,439
—
—
$122,619
$9,179
6
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08037
acs median gross
0
$1,388
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08037
fmr
0
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08037
acs median gross
1
$1,282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08037
fmr
1
$1,813
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08037
acs median gross
2
$2,129
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08037
fmr
2
$2,379
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08037
acs median gross
3
$2,212
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08037
fmr
3
$2,852
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08037
acs median gross
4
$3,293
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08037
fmr
4
$3,688
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08037
acs median gross
$2,019
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08037
acs recent mover gross
$3,189
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81631
acs median gross
2
$2,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81631
acs median gross
3
$2,012
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81631
acs median gross
$1,743
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 81631
payment standard 110
0
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 90
0
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
safmr
0
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 110
1
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 90
1
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
safmr
1
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 110
2
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 90
2
$1,809
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
safmr
2
$2,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 110
3
$2,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 90
3
$2,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
safmr
3
$2,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 110
4
$3,432
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
payment standard 90
4
$2,808
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81631
safmr
4
$3,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.