Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

701–750

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
701	MARBRIDGE VILLA	3.6%	95.4	A	TX	MANCHACA	92	—
702	SACRED HEART NURSING HOME	3.6%	95.4	B	MA	NEW BEDFORD	217	DIOCESAN HEALTH FACILITIES
703	CHENEY GOLDEN AGE HOME	3.6%	95.4	A	KS	CHENEY	40	—
704	Woodside Lutheran Home	3.6%	95.4	A	WI	Green Bay	118	—
705	CORNWALL MANOR	3.6%	95.4	A	PA	CORNWALL	96	—
706	SCHERVIER PAVILION	3.6%	95.4	C	NY	WARWICK	120	BON SECOURS MERCY HEALTH INC
707	MANOR COURT OF PEORIA	3.6%	95.4	B	IL	PEORIA	50	—
708	HOLLADAY PARK PLAZA	3.6%	95.4	A	OR	PORTLAND	51	—
709	SRMC Long Term Care, LLC dba Pole Creek Estates	3.6%	95.4	C	NE	Sidney	63	—
710	Brown CTY Comm Treatment CTR-Bayshore Village	3.6%	95.4	B	WI	Green Bay	63	—
711	ATTICA LONG TERM CARE FACILITY	3.6%	95.4	A	KS	ATTICA	48	—
712	SPRINGMEADE HEALTHCENTER	3.6%	95.4	B	OH	TIPP CITY	99	—
713	GREEN HILL	3.6%	95.3	C	NJ	WEST ORANGE	127	—
714	AVIR AT LONGVIEW	3.6%	95.3	D	TX	LONGVIEW	0	—
715	Redbanks Colonial Terrace	3.6%	95.3	B	KY	Sebree	87	—
716	BERKS HEIM NURSING & REHABILITATION	3.6%	95.3	A	PA	LEESPORT	420	—
717	TALLAHASSEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL EXTENDED CARE	3.6%	95.3	A	FL	TALLAHASSEE	113	—
718	CLAY COUNTY NURSING HOME	3.6%	95.3	A	AL	ASHLAND	83	—
719	BALDWIN CARE CENTER	3.6%	95.3	A	WI	BALDWIN	50	—
720	Shirley Chapman Sholom Home East	3.6%	95.3	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	118	—
721	REHAB & HEALTHCARE CENTER OF CAPE CORAL	3.6%	95.3	B	FL	CAPE CORAL	118	—
722	Madonna Manor Nursing Home	3.6%	95.3	C	MA	NORTH ATTLEBORO	129	—
723	CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY HOME	3.6%	95.3	B	WI	HUDSON	50	CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY HOMES AND SERVICES INC
724	Penn Yan Manor Nursing Home Inc	3.6%	95.3	A	NY	Penn Yan	46	—
725	NEW JERSEY VETERANS MEMORIAL HOME AT PARAMUS	3.6%	95.3	B	NJ	PARAMUS	336	—
726	Lutheran Home	3.6%	95.3	A	WI	WAUWATOSA	160	—
727	Seminole Pioneer Nursing Home	3.6%	95.3	D	OK	Seminole	110	—
728	The Vinton Lutheran Home	3.6%	95.3	A	IA	Vinton	61	—
729	WHITE RIVER LODGE	3.6%	95.3	A	IN	BEDFORD	74	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
730	Saunders Medical Center	3.6%	95.3	A	NE	Wahoo	60	—
731	ANTHONY COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	3.6%	95.3	B	KS	ANTHONY	30	—
732	Eventide Williamsburg	3.5%	95.2	B	NE	Lincoln	50	EVENTIDE
733	John Clarke Senior Living	3.5%	95.2	A	RI	Middletown	60	—
734	Stonewall Living Center	3.5%	95.2	C	TX	Aspermont	0	—
735	JEANNE JUGAN RESIDENCE	3.5%	95.2	A	DC	WASHINGTON	40	—
736	UNION COUNTY NURSING HOME	3.5%	95.2	C	GA	BLAIRSVILLE	150	—
737	THE OSBORN	3.5%	95.2	A	NY	RYE	84	—
738	Schoolcraft Medical Care Facility	3.5%	95.2	C	MI	Manistique	85	—
739	WENTZ LIVING CENTER	3.5%	95.2	A	ND	NAPOLEON	36	—
740	Avoyelles Manor Nursing Home	3.5%	95.2	A	LA	DUPONT	104	—
741	OHIO VETERANS HOME - GEORGETOWN	3.5%	95.2	A	OH	GEORGETOWN	168	STATE OF OHIO OFFICE OF BUDGET AND MANAGEMENT STATE ACCOUNTING
742	CHILDRENS SPECIALIZED HOSPITAL TOMS RIVER	3.5%	95.2	A	NJ	TOMS RIVER	26	—
743	LAKESIDE AT WILLOW VALLEY	3.5%	95.2	A	PA	WILLOW STREET	80	WILLOW VALLEY COMMUNITIES
744	Chosen Valley Care Center	3.5%	95.2	A	MN	CHATFIELD	78	—
745	GRIGGS COUNTY CARE CENTER	3.5%	95.1	A	ND	COOPERSTOWN	40	—
746	COMMUNITY AT ROCKHILL, THE	3.5%	95.1	A	PA	SELLERSVILLE	90	GRACE INSPIRED MINISTRIES
747	RAPPAHANNOCK WESTMINSTER CANTERBURY	3.5%	95.1	A	VA	IRVINGTON	42	—
748	Grace Heights Health & Rehabilitation	3.5%	95.1	A	NC	Morganton	120	—
749	PLYMOUTH HARBOR INCORPORATED	3.5%	95.1	A	FL	SARASOTA	56	—
750	BARNES-KASSON COUNTY HOSPITAL	3.5%	95.1	A	PA	SUSQUEHANNA	58	WAYNE MEMORIAL HEALTH SYSTEM INC

Showing 701–750 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.