1609 MEDICAL DR, TALLAHASSEE, FL 32308 · CCN 105158
Composite
14.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
113
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 14.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
8.07
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
3.49
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
7.70
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
8.21
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.6
8.07
3.49
1.30
3.28
7.70
0.0%
2025Q3
92
46.2
8.49
3.72
1.38
3.39
8.14
0.0%
2025Q2
91
46.2
8.81
3.97
1.30
3.55
8.32
0.0%
2025Q1
90
46.9
7.91
3.37
1.32
3.22
7.86
0.0%
2024Q4
92
48.1
7.95
3.31
1.32
3.31
7.75
0.0%
2024Q3
92
49.8
7.52
3.23
1.21
3.08
7.30
0.0%
2024Q2
91
48.0
8.07
3.43
1.33
3.31
7.84
0.0%
2024Q1
91
48.1
5.71
2.19
0.61
2.90
5.82
0.0%
2023Q4
92
45.7
7.92
3.66
1.04
3.22
7.68
0.0%
2023Q3
92
47.7
7.92
3.54
1.12
3.26
7.79
0.0%
2023Q2
91
48.7
7.80
3.42
1.17
3.20
7.48
0.0%
2023Q1
90
48.0
8.07
3.55
1.27
3.24
7.94
0.0%
2022Q4
92
46.6
8.12
3.44
1.41
3.27
7.68
0.0%
2022Q3
92
46.3
7.73
3.09
1.61
3.03
7.46
0.0%
2022Q2
91
49.1
7.53
2.87
1.61
3.05
7.10
0.0%
2022Q1
90
46.6
7.32
2.82
1.43
3.06
7.16
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-08-22
2021-06-10
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2021-06-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
64
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ALFORD, BARBARA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
BARNETT, MARTHA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLAIR, CYNTHIA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2005-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
BUSCH TRANSOU, SUSIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUSCH TRANSOU, SUSIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPS, JOSEPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-09-24
current
pecos_ownership
DOZIER, LAURIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENNIS, ERIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, STEVEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORTUNAS, PAULA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-01-19
current
pecos_ownership
GIUDICE, WILLIAM
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
GREDLER, FRANK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GREDLER, FRANK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOWELL, WINSTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, WARREN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-03-08
current
pecos_ownership
KILLIUS, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINDSEY, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-03-02
current
pecos_ownership
LITTLES, ALMA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
LITTLES, ALMA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCKNIGHT, AVERY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, JASON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-07-07
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, RICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, ROBERT
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2013-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
MOSS, ROBIN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1994-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
MOSS, ROBIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
OBRYANT, GEORGE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2003-07-14
current
pecos_ownership
RUMANA, CHRISTOPHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
THORNTON, GLENDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
THORNTON, GLENDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WATSON, DEAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
WINCHESTER, GARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WONG, ANDREW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALMA LITTLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALMA LITTLES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW WONG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVERY MCKNIGHT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA ALFORD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2013-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER RUMANA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA BLAIR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-05-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEAN WATSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD LINDSEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-03-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN ENNIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANK GREDLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANK GREDLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY WINCHESTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE OBRYANT
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2003-07-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GLENDA THORNTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GLENDA THORNTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES KILLIUS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MOORE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-07-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH CAMPS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-09-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURIE DOZIER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARTHA BARNETT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAULA FORTUNAS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2004-01-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICK MOORE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MOORE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2013-04-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBIN MOSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBIN MOSS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
1994-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN EVANS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSIE BUSCH TRANSOU
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSIE BUSCH TRANSOU
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WARREN JONES
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2004-03-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM GIUDICE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WINSTON HOWELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12073
acs median gross
0
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073
fmr
0
$1,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073
acs median gross
1
$1,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073
fmr
1
$1,204
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073
acs median gross
2
$1,305
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073
fmr
2
$1,352
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073
acs median gross
3
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073
fmr
3
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073
acs median gross
4
$1,486
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073
fmr
4
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073
acs median gross
5
$944
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073
acs median gross
$1,291
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073
acs recent mover gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308
acs median gross
0
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308
acs median gross
1
$1,297
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308
acs median gross
2
$1,361
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308
acs median gross
3
$1,657
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308
acs median gross
4
$2,368
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308
acs median gross
5
$927
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308
acs median gross
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308
acs recent mover gross
$1,719
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32308
payment standard 110
0
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 90
0
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
safmr
0
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 110
1
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 90
1
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
safmr
1
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 110
2
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 90
2
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
safmr
2
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 110
3
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 90
3
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
safmr
3
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 110
4
$2,101
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
payment standard 90
4
$1,719
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308
safmr
4
$1,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.