Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,001–6,050

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6001	AUTUMN OAKS CARING CENTER	0.2%	60.1	F	MO	MOUNTAIN GROVE	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
6002	AVIR AT PECOS	0.2%	60.1	B	TX	PECOS	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
6003	Hillcrest Convalescent Center	0.2%	60.1	A	NC	Durham	86	—
6004	TREVECCA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING LLC	0.2%	60.1	B	TN	NASHVILLE	240	—
6005	VIEW PARK CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.2%	60.1	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	—
6006	WASHINGTON ODD FELLOWS HOME	0.2%	60.1	C	WA	WALLA WALLA	53	—
6007	Ross Manor	0.2%	60.1	A	ME	BANGOR	103	FIRST ATLANTIC CORPORATION
6008	MAJESTIC CENTER FOR REHAB & SUB-ACUTE CARE	0.2%	60.1	C	NJ	CAMDEN	120	—
6009	Decatur Medical Lodge	0.2%	60.1	D	TX	Decatur	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6010	Jackson Ridge Healthcare Center	0.2%	60.1	C	IA	Maquoketa	75	STELLAR HEALTHCARE MGMT LLC
6011	PHOENIX OF FAIRLAWN	0.2%	60.1	A	OH	AKRON	80	PHOENIX HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6012	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - SPECIALTY CARE COMMUNITY	0.2%	60.1	C	MN	ROBBINSDALE	96	SANFORD
6013	GOLDEN HILL NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	60.1	B	NY	KINGSTON	280	—
6014	BALMORAL HOME	0.2%	60.1	D	IL	CHICAGO	213	TEN CHICAGO LLC
6015	ANBERRY POST ACUTE	0.2%	60.1	A	CA	MERCED	120	DG 2016 HOLDINGS TRUST DATED SEPTEMBER 14 2016
6016	VERO BEACH CARE CENTER	0.2%	60.1	C	FL	VERO BEACH	159	—
6017	WESLACO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	60.1	A	TX	WESLACO	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6018	The Villa at the Bay	0.2%	60.1	D	MI	Petoskey	110	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
6019	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - WESTBROOK	0.2%	60.1	A	MN	WESTBROOK	32	SANFORD
6020	GOSNELL HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	60.1	D	AR	GOSNELL	70	—
6021	BRYNWOOD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	60.1	A	FL	MONTICELLO	97	—
6022	COLUMBINE COMMONS HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	0.2%	60.1	B	CO	WINDSOR	60	—
6023	BOWERSTON HILLS NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	60.1	A	OH	BOWERSTON	25	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
6024	JACKSONVILLE REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.2%	60.1	D	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	—
6025	WATERS OF WABASH SKILLED NURSING FACILITY WEST	0.2%	60.1	D	IN	WABASH	44	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6026	OAK GROVE RETIREMENT HOME	0.2%	60.1	C	MS	DUNCAN	60	—
6027	BROADMOOR MEDICAL LODGE	0.2%	60.1	D	TX	ROCKWALL	0	HUNT MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6028	Southern Hills Specialty Care	0.2%	60.1	C	IA	Osceola	90	CARE INITIATIVES
6029	VENICE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	60.1	B	FL	VENICE	120	—
6030	AVIATA AT SOUTH DAYTONA	0.2%	60.1	C	FL	SOUTH DAYTONA	65	—
6031	SOUTHLAND REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	60.1	C	TX	LUFKIN	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
6032	Belmont Terrace Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	60.1	B	KY	Florence	151	ENCORE INVESTORS LLC
6033	HEARTLAND CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	60.1	B	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	102	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
6034	JACKSON GARDENS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	60.1	A	FL	MIAMI	120	—
6035	KINGSWAY ARMS NURSING CENTER INC	0.2%	60.1	A	NY	SCHENECTADY	160	—
6036	Warren Operations RI, LLC DBA Warren Center	0.2%	60.1	D	RI	Warren	63	MAYFLOWER HEALTHCARE LLC
6037	CURA OF SANDSTONE	0.2%	60.1	B	MN	SANDSTONE	50	—
6038	MATTOON REHAB & HCC	0.2%	60.1	F	IL	MATTOON	148	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
6039	HERITAGE CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.2%	60.1	A	TX	AMARILLO	0	—
6040	JOHNSON COUNTY CARE CENTER	0.2%	60.1	B	MO	WARRENSBURG	87	—
6041	Compass Healthcare and Rehab Hawfields, Inc.	0.2%	60.1	A	NC	Mebane	117	—
6042	NIGHTINGALE AT CROSSETT	0.2%	60.1	B	AR	CROSSETT	83	SRI NIGHTINGALE LLC
6043	LEGEND OAKS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION - NEW BR	0.2%	60.1	B	TX	NEW BRAUNFELS	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
6044	PU'UWAI 'O MAKAHA	0.2%	60.1	B	HI	WAIANAE	93	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
6045	Avir at Center	0.2%	60.1	C	TX	CENTER	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6046	LUXE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.2%	60.1	D	OH	LANCASTER	172	—
6047	Jan Frances Care Center	0.2%	60.1	D	OK	Ada	132	BGM ESTATE LLC
6048	RIVER BLUFF NURSING HOME	0.2%	60.1	C	IL	ROCKFORD	304	COUNTY OF WINNEBAGO
6049	HILLSIDE PLAZA	0.2%	60.1	B	OH	CLEVELAND	47	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
6050	KINGS DAUGHTERS COMMUNITY HEALTH & REHAB	0.2%	60.1	B	VA	STAUNTON	117	—

Showing 6,001–6,050 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.