Reads as: riskier than 98.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.5 vs natl
BRITTON KEVIN
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.12
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.66
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.30
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
71.3
2.12
0.39
0.58
1.15
1.66
0.0%
2025Q3
92
72.8
1.92
0.43
0.51
0.99
1.29
0.0%
2025Q2
91
66.2
2.01
0.40
0.60
1.01
1.32
0.0%
2025Q1
90
67.3
2.13
0.30
0.64
1.19
1.63
0.0%
2024Q4
92
70.0
2.27
0.36
0.51
1.39
1.94
0.0%
2024Q3
92
72.3
2.40
0.43
0.51
1.46
2.04
0.0%
2024Q2
91
76.9
2.49
0.46
0.46
1.57
2.09
0.0%
2024Q1
91
76.8
2.14
0.44
0.53
1.17
1.75
0.0%
2023Q4
92
77.4
1.99
0.29
0.41
1.29
1.77
0.0%
2023Q3
92
66.0
2.00
0.31
0.51
1.18
1.86
0.0%
2023Q2
91
56.3
2.22
0.41
0.49
1.33
2.06
0.0%
2023Q1
90
50.7
2.82
0.47
0.64
1.72
2.43
0.0%
2022Q4
92
57.0
2.74
0.53
0.44
1.76
2.59
0.0%
2022Q3
92
56.8
2.46
0.51
0.36
1.58
2.27
0.0%
2022Q2
91
58.8
2.42
0.42
0.38
1.63
2.12
0.0%
2022Q1
90
68.4
2.05
0.26
0.56
1.24
1.77
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-12-19
2025-04-04
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-05-16
2025-04-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-05-16
2025-01-10
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-02-23
2025-01-10
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-02-23
2025-01-10
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-02-23
2025-01-10
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-02-23
2025-01-10
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-02-23
2025-01-10
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2025-02-23
2025-01-10
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2025-02-23
2025-01-10
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2025-02-23
2025-01-10
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-02-23
2023-10-18
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2023-11-30
2023-06-02
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
E
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2023-03-25
2023-06-02
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
E
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
E
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2023-07-17
2023-06-02
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2023-07-17
2019-11-08
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2019-12-23
2019-11-08
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2019-12-23
2019-11-08
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2019-12-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
33
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CIRCLE B ENTERPRISES HOLDING COMPANY INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
1997-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOUNTAIN GROVE #1 INCORPORATED
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MOUNTAIN GROVE #1 INCORPORATED
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AGH1 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
AGH1 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEAIRD, TODD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEDELL, BRYAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
BEDELL, DONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2000-10-31
current
pecos_ownership
BEDELL, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1997-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
BEERS, JONATHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRITTON, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
FG LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
MID STATES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, CASSIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-06
current
pecos_ownership
VAN DE VEN LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2000-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MID STATES INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MOUNTAIN GROVE #1 INC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MOUNTAIN GROVE #1 INCORPORATED
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MOUNTAIN GROVE #1 INCORPORATED
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
KEVIN BRITTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD BEAIRD
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CASSIE MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD BEDELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1997-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD BEDELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2000-10-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN BEERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$976,360
$12,764
—
$200,463
$184,414
9
propco
2023-12-31
$845,156
$41,174
—
$224,128
$124,866
9
propco
2022-12-31
$803,868
$97,605
—
$251,243
$123,534
8
propco
2021-12-31
$876,892
$96,289
—
$291,475
$119,584
9
propco
2020-12-31
$704,337
$99,384
—
$212,877
$108,201
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29229
acs median gross
0
$575
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29229
fmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29229
acs median gross
1
$382
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29229
fmr
1
$677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29229
acs median gross
2
$658
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29229
fmr
2
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29229
acs median gross
3
$696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29229
fmr
3
$1,235
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29229
acs median gross
4
$935
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29229
fmr
4
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29229
acs median gross
5
$1,121
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29229
acs median gross
$625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65711
acs median gross
2
$705
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65711
acs median gross
3
$915
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65711
acs median gross
$748
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 65711
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 110
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 90
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
safmr
1
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 110
3
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 90
3
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
safmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 110
4
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
payment standard 90
4
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65711
safmr
4
$1,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.