Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,651–5,700

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5651	SHAKER GARDENS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	62.6	C	OH	SHAKER HEIGHTS	50	—
5652	Elderwood at Hornell	0.2%	62.6	C	NY	Hornell	122	—
5653	WISTERIA GARDENS	0.2%	62.6	A	MS	PEARL	52	—
5654	Latta Road Nursing Home West	0.2%	62.6	A	NY	Rochester	40	—
5655	PRAIRIE VIEW SKILLED NURSING	0.2%	62.6	D	MO	BLOOMFIELD	60	PARADIGM REHAB SERVICES LLC
5656	TERRACE OF JACKSONVILLE, THE	0.2%	62.6	A	FL	JACKSONVILLE	180	—
5657	OASIS REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC	0.2%	62.6	A	NY	CENTER MORICHES	100	—
5658	DIVERSICARE OF MARTIN	0.2%	62.6	A	TN	MARTIN	150	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
5659	CEDARVIEW CARE CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	OH	LEBANON	83	—
5660	BISCAYNE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	62.6	A	FL	NORTH MIAMI	98	—
5661	MADIGAN ESTATES	0.2%	62.6	B	ME	HOULTON	99	—
5662	Valley Care And Rehab Llc	0.2%	62.6	A	MN	BARNESVILLE	35	—
5663	Deptford Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.2%	62.6	C	NJ	DEPTFORD	240	—
5664	The Chateau Waco	0.2%	62.6	D	TX	Waco	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5665	SOUTHPARK MEADOWS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTE	0.2%	62.6	B	TX	AUSTIN	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
5666	CIVITA CARE CENTER AT CHESHIRE	0.2%	62.6	A	CT	CHESHIRE	120	ESNH LLC
5667	Grace Care Center of Nocona	0.2%	62.6	C	TX	Nocona	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5668	WESTWOOD HEALTH AND REHAB, INC	0.2%	62.6	D	AR	SPRINGDALE	85	RHC OPERATIONS INC
5669	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT ALICE MANOR	0.2%	62.6	C	MD	BALTIMORE	105	ACCURATE STAFFING LLC
5670	Maple Lane Nursing Home	0.2%	62.6	A	VT	Barton	71	—
5671	CLARK REHABILITATION AND SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	IN	CLARKSVILLE	83	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5672	DANVILLE REGIONAL REHABILITATION	0.2%	62.6	A	IN	DANVILLE	110	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5673	STARR REGIONAL HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.2%	62.6	B	TN	ETOWAH	88	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
5674	BEDFORD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	62.6	B	NY	BROOKLYN	200	—
5675	AUSTINWOODS REHAB HEALTH CARE	0.2%	62.6	B	OH	AUSTINTOWN	99	—
5676	Rose Haven Nursing Home	0.2%	62.6	B	IA	Marengo	58	—
5677	LUTHER MANOR RETIREMENT & NURSING CENTER	0.2%	62.6	C	MO	HANNIBAL	64	—
5678	HUNTINGTON HILLS CTR FOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	62.6	B	NY	MELVILLE	320	—
5679	MANHATTAN CENTER FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	62.6	—	NY	NEW YORK	219	—
5680	CLOVER REST HOME	0.2%	62.6	A	NJ	COLUMBIA	33	—
5681	EDENBROOK OF ROCHESTER	0.2%	62.6	D	MN	ROCHESTER	81	—
5682	BETHANY GARDENS SKILLED LIVING CENTER	0.2%	62.6	A	NY	ROME	100	—
5683	FOXWOOD SPRINGS LIVING CENTER	0.2%	62.6	C	MO	RAYMORE	108	OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
5684	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT BRIDGEPARK	0.2%	62.6	B	MD	BALTIMORE	106	—
5685	Baptist Health Hardin	0.2%	62.6	A	KY	Elizabethtown	15	BAPTIST HEALTHCARE SYSTEM INC
5686	Iosco County Medical Care Facility	0.2%	62.6	D	MI	Tawas City	78	—
5687	VIVIAN HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	62.6	C	LA	VIVIAN	95	NEXION HEALTH INC
5688	COLONIAL PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	62.6	F	NY	ROME	80	—
5689	MONTEREY PARK CONV HOSP	0.2%	62.6	B	CA	MONTEREY PARK	89	—
5690	SERENETHOS CARE CENTER, LLC	0.2%	62.6	B	CA	HAYWARD	36	—
5691	RAINTREE VILLAGE	0.2%	62.6	A	MO	LEES SUMMIT	40	WSG LLC
5692	Avir at Cotulla	0.2%	62.6	B	TX	Cotulla	0	—
5693	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF SOUTH PITTSBURG REHAB & WE	0.2%	62.6	D	TN	SOUTH PITTSBURG	165	WHEATEN LLC
5694	CHESTELM HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	CT	MOODUS	76	—
5695	HENNIS CARE CENTRE OF BOLIVAR	0.2%	62.6	C	OH	BOLIVAR	115	—
5696	Axiom Gardens of Mount Vernon	0.2%	62.6	D	IL	MOUNT VERNON	106	—
5697	Marquardt Memorial Manor	0.2%	62.6	D	WI	Watertown	140	ILLUMINUS INC
5698	Greenfield Rehabilitation & Health Care Center	0.2%	62.6	B	IA	Greenfield	46	—
5699	GARDEN ISLE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	62.6	C	HI	LIHUE	110	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
5700	Aiken Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.2%	62.6	C	SC	Aiken	125	—

Showing 5,651–5,700 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.