Reads as: riskier than 82.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.5 vs natl
GEHA CHRISTOPHER
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.3 vs natl
OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.8 vs natl
MATHENY CYNTHIA
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
GEHA CHRISTOPHER
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.12
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.10
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.13
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
88.2
3.12
0.35
0.84
1.93
3.10
0.0%
2025Q3
92
90.6
3.01
0.39
0.67
1.96
2.94
0.0%
2025Q2
91
88.8
2.93
0.44
0.68
1.81
2.88
0.0%
2025Q1
90
90.2
2.74
0.36
0.80
1.58
2.81
0.0%
2024Q4
92
91.1
2.69
0.40
0.68
1.61
2.69
0.0%
2024Q3
92
88.0
2.80
0.39
0.71
1.71
2.78
0.0%
2024Q2
91
87.5
3.45
0.57
1.01
1.86
3.12
0.0%
2024Q1
91
82.6
3.21
0.42
0.87
1.92
3.05
0.0%
2023Q4
92
86.6
3.02
0.36
0.87
1.79
2.94
0.0%
2023Q3
92
85.1
3.38
0.48
0.98
1.92
3.10
0.0%
2023Q2
91
82.6
3.40
0.51
1.14
1.75
3.29
0.0%
2023Q1
90
84.0
3.37
0.46
1.14
1.77
3.23
3.3%
2022Q4
92
81.5
3.66
0.39
1.20
2.06
3.46
27.1%
2022Q3
92
83.5
3.73
0.42
1.23
2.08
3.46
35.1%
2022Q2
91
85.3
3.54
0.37
1.15
2.03
3.08
32.9%
2022Q1
90
77.9
3.79
0.40
1.26
2.13
3.50
22.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-12-06
2025-01-10
Health
F0551
Give the resident's representative the ability to exercise the resident's rights.
D
2025-02-24
2025-01-10
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-02-24
2025-01-10
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2025-02-24
2025-01-10
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-02-24
2025-01-10
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2025-02-24
2025-01-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-02-24
2025-01-10
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
F
2025-02-24
2024-07-09
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-06-21
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-01-31
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-03-22
2023-07-03
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
E
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-03
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2023-08-15
2021-10-29
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-12-12
2021-10-29
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2021-12-12
2021-10-29
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2021-12-12
2021-10-29
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2021-12-12
2021-10-29
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2021-12-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAKER, AMELIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-11-10
current
pecos_ownership
BONCREST RESOURCE GROUP INC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORRIGAN, FRANK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEHA, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MATHENY, CYNTHIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MINTER, DERRICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-15
current
pecos_ownership
OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
OMWOHA, PATRICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
PAYNE, OREN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAYMORE HEALTHCARE INVESTORS LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROSENBAUM, MAURICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROSENBAUM, MAURICE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-11-10
current
pecos_ownership
AMELIA BAKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER GEHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA MATHENY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DERRICK MINTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANK CORRIGAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAURICE ROSENBAUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAURICE ROSENBAUM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-11-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OREN PAYNE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK OMWOHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2020-12-31
$1,293,544
—
$1,127,934
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29037
acs median gross
0
$1,051
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29037
fmr
0
$1,095
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29037
acs median gross
1
$930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29037
fmr
1
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29037
acs median gross
2
$1,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29037
fmr
2
$1,358
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29037
acs median gross
3
$1,419
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29037
fmr
3
$1,769
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29037
acs median gross
4
$2,270
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29037
fmr
4
$2,103
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29037
acs median gross
5
$1,897
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29037
acs median gross
$1,205
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29037
acs recent mover gross
$1,422
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64083
acs median gross
1
$1,159
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64083
acs median gross
2
$1,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64083
acs median gross
3
$1,868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64083
acs median gross
4
$2,190
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64083
acs median gross
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64083
acs recent mover gross
$1,211
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 64083
payment standard 110
0
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 90
0
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
safmr
0
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 110
1
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 90
1
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
safmr
1
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 110
2
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 90
2
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
safmr
2
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 110
3
$2,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 90
3
$1,746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
safmr
3
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 110
4
$2,541
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
payment standard 90
4
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64083
safmr
4
$2,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.