Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

551–600

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
551	LAKE STOCKTON HEALTHCARE FACILITY	4.4%	96.4	A	MO	STOCKTON	90	—
552	OBION COUNTY NURSING HOME	4.3%	96.4	C	TN	UNION CITY	56	—
553	SCHOFIELD RESIDENCE	4.3%	96.4	A	NY	KENMORE	120	—
554	MEDFORD LEAS	4.3%	96.4	A	NJ	MEDFORD	24	—
555	NORWEGIAN CHRISTIAN HOME AND HEALTH CENTER	4.3%	96.4	B	NY	BROOKLYN	135	—
556	Gogebic Medical Care Facility	4.3%	96.4	A	MI	Wakefield	100	—
557	ST MARK VILLAGE	4.3%	96.4	B	FL	PALM HARBOR	80	—
558	Good Shepherd Lutheran Home	4.3%	96.4	A	MN	RUSHFORD	65	—
559	Wellington Place	4.3%	96.4	A	IA	Decorah	56	—
560	ST AUGUSTINE HOME FOR THE AGED	4.3%	96.4	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	23	—
561	MONTGOMERY COUNTY NURSING HOME	4.3%	96.4	A	AR	MOUNT IDA	112	—
562	BETHEL HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.3%	96.4	A	KS	NORTH NEWTON	65	—
563	VIKING MANOR NURSING HOME	4.3%	96.3	A	MN	ULEN	45	—
564	LUTHERAN HOME	4.3%	96.3	B	OH	NAPOLEON	27	—
565	Little Sisters of the Poor	4.3%	96.3	A	KY	Louisville	35	—
566	CLINTON-HICKMAN COUNTY NURSING FACILITY	4.3%	96.3	A	KY	CLINTON	46	—
567	Chimney Rock Villa	4.2%	96.3	C	NE	Bayard	49	—
568	Eastmont	4.2%	96.3	B	NE	Lincoln	23	—
569	SALEM HOME	4.2%	96.3	A	KS	HILLSBORO	45	—
570	MARENGO NURSING HOME	4.2%	96.3	A	AL	LINDEN	78	—
571	ANDERSON COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU	4.2%	96.3	B	KS	GARNETT	36	—
572	Owsley County Health Care Center, Inc.	4.2%	96.3	B	KY	Booneville	91	—
573	EMORY HEALTH AND REHAB	4.2%	96.3	A	TX	EMORY	0	—
574	Broadway House for Continuing Care	4.2%	96.3	A	NJ	NEWARK	78	—
575	The New Homestead Care Center	4.2%	96.3	A	IA	Guthrie Center	58	—
576	Our Island Home	4.2%	96.3	A	MA	NANTUCKET	45	—
577	BROWN MEMORIAL HOME INC	4.2%	96.2	A	OH	CIRCLEVILLE	44	—
578	Trinitas Hospital	4.2%	96.2	A	NJ	ELIZABETH	124	RWJ BARNABAS HEALTH INC
579	DAMAS HOSPITAL SNF	4.2%	96.2	A	PR	PONCE	25	—
580	Buchanan County Health Center	4.2%	96.2	B	IA	Independence	39	—
581	NAAMANS CREEK COUNTRY MANOR	4.2%	96.2	A	PA	BOOTHWYN	90	—
582	MONTGOMERY GENERAL HOSPITAL	4.1%	96.2	A	WV	MONTGOMERY	44	—
583	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT UTZ TERRACE	4.1%	96.2	A	PA	HANOVER	40	—
584	CHRIST THE KING MANOR	4.1%	96.2	A	PA	DUBOIS	160	—
585	C M Tucker Jr Nursing Care Center Roddey Pavilio	4.1%	96.2	C	SC	Columbia	308	SOUTH CAROLINA DEPT OF MENTAL HEALTH ACCOUNTING OFFICE
586	ELK HAVEN NURSING HOME	4.1%	96.2	B	PA	SAINT MARYS	120	—
587	FAIRFIELD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	4.1%	96.2	A	IL	FAIRFIELD	30	DEACONESS HEALTH SYSTEM INC
588	Kadoka Nursing Home	4.1%	96.2	A	SD	KADOKA	31	—
589	BROOKLYN UNITED METHODIST CHURCH HOME	4.1%	96.2	C	NY	BROOKLYN	120	—
590	WILLOW POINT REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	4.1%	96.2	B	NY	VESTAL	300	—
591	KIRKWOOD BY THE RIVER	4.1%	96.2	B	AL	BIRMINGHAM	61	—
592	NEW HORIZONS HABERSHAM	4.1%	96.1	A	GA	DEMOREST	84	—
593	MIRACLE HILL NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	4.1%	96.1	B	FL	TALLAHASSEE	120	—
594	BETHESDA SOUTHGATE	4.1%	96.1	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	130	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
595	CLAYBERG, THE	4.1%	96.1	A	IL	CUBA	49	—
596	GUNNISON VALLEY HEALTH SENIOR CARE CENTER	4.1%	96.1	C	CO	GUNNISON	50	COUNTY OF GUNNISON
597	Treyton Oak Towers	4.1%	96.1	B	KY	Louisville	60	—
598	ARBOR WALK HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.0%	96.1	A	MS	GREENVILLE	60	—
599	JEFFERSON COUNTY NURSING HOME	4.0%	96.1	A	MS	FAYETTE	60	—
600	GALLATIN REST HOME	4.0%	96.1	B	MT	BOZEMAN	69	—

Showing 551–600 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.