Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,551–4,600

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4551	BISHOP REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	70.3	D	NY	SYRACUSE	440	—
4552	ARCHSTONE CARE CENTER	0.4%	70.3	B	AZ	CHANDLER	120	—
4553	ELIZABETH SCOTT COMMUNITY	0.4%	70.3	A	OH	MAUMEE	60	—
4554	HEALTH CARE INC	0.4%	70.3	A	AL	ASHVILLE	53	—
4555	HIGHPOINTE ON MICHIGAN HEALTH CARE FACILITY	0.4%	70.3	A	NY	BUFFALO	300	KALEIDA HEALTH
4556	CORNING THERAPY AND LIVING CENTER	0.4%	70.3	C	AR	CORNING	84	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4557	SUNSET MANOR	0.4%	70.3	A	AL	GUIN	71	—
4558	CARLYLE PLACE	0.4%	70.3	A	GA	MACON	40	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
4559	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT BUCKS HILL	0.3%	69.9	B	CT	WATERBURY	90	—
4560	Willow Brooke Court At Park Pointe Village	0.3%	69.9	A	SC	Rock Hill	20	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4561	Elm Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	69.9	B	NY	Canandaigua	46	—
4562	HILLVIEW NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.3%	69.9	A	TX	GOLDTHWAITE	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4563	Blossom Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	69.9	C	GA	MACON	143	—
4564	Mountain View Manor	0.3%	69.9	A	AZ	PRESCOTT	116	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
4565	BRENTWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.9	A	OH	SAGAMORE HILLS	99	—
4566	JACKSON MEMORIAL PERDUE MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	69.9	B	FL	CUTLER BAY	163	PUBLIC HEALTH TRUST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY FLORIDA
4567	MADISON HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	69.9	B	GA	MADISON	67	—
4568	RIVER RIDGE LIVING CENTER	0.3%	69.9	B	NY	AMSTERDAM	120	—
4569	GARDEN VIEW CARE CENTER OF CHESTERFIELD	0.3%	69.9	A	MO	CHESTERFIELD	52	—
4570	Marlow Nursing & Rehab	0.3%	69.9	C	OK	Marlow	69	—
4571	Peak Resources-Outer Banks	0.3%	69.9	C	NC	Nags Head	126	PEAK RESOURCES INC
4572	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY TYNDALL	0.3%	69.9	B	SD	TYNDALL	68	SANFORD
4573	HAZEL HAWKINS CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.3%	69.9	—	CA	HOLLISTER	0	SAN BENITO HEALTH CARE DISTRICT
4574	Ravenwood Specialty Care	0.3%	69.9	D	IA	Waterloo	176	CARE INITIATIVES
4575	SPRINGFIELD MASONIC COMMUNITY	0.3%	69.9	A	OH	SPRINGFIELD	84	—
4576	Bethany Lutheran Home	0.3%	69.9	B	IA	Council Bluffs	112	—
4577	LAKE PARK NURSING FACILITY	0.3%	69.9	—	OH	SYLVANIA	20	—
4578	ARISTACARE AT CEDAR OAKS	0.3%	69.9	C	NJ	SOUTH PLAINFIELD	230	—
4579	THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON	0.3%	69.9	D	AR	WALDRON	105	RED RIVER MANAGEMENT LLC
4580	St. Jane de Chantal	0.3%	69.9	A	NE	Lincoln	103	—
4581	CHIPPEWA MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	69.9	A	WI	CHIPPEWA FALLS	50	—
4582	LAKELAND HILLS CENTER	0.3%	69.9	D	FL	LAKELAND	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
4583	OROVILLE HOSPITAL ECU	0.3%	69.9	—	CA	OROVILLE	—	OROVILLE HOSPITAL
4584	THE LEGACY AT WILLOW BEND	0.3%	69.9	A	TX	PLANO	0	THE LEGACY SENIOR COMMUNITIES INC
4585	Chateau De Notre Dame Community Care Center	0.3%	69.9	B	LA	New Orleans	171	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
4586	Lapeer County Medical Care Facility	0.3%	69.9	B	MI	Lapeer	202	—
4587	Blossom Health Care Center Inc.	0.3%	69.9	C	NY	Rochester	80	—
4588	Presbyterian Homes Of Arden Hills	0.3%	69.9	A	MN	ARDEN HILLS	128	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
4589	Desoto Retirement & Rehab Ctr, LLC	0.3%	69.9	A	LA	MANSFIELD	135	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4590	ARBOR WOODS HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	69.9	B	AL	REFORM	85	TRAYLOR PORTER HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
4591	APPLE REHAB FARMINGTON VALLEY	0.3%	69.9	B	CT	PLAINVILLE	160	—
4592	BAYWOOD POST ACUTE	0.3%	69.9	B	CA	CAMPBELL	45	—
4593	Monticello Nursing & Rehab Center	0.3%	69.9	A	IA	Monticello	75	JOHN W GRUBB TRUST
4594	TIGARD REHABILITATION AND CARE	0.3%	69.9	B	OR	TIGARD	112	—
4595	Maine Veterans Home - Caribou	0.3%	69.9	A	ME	CARIBOU	40	MAINE VETERANS HOME
4596	WESTRIDGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.9	B	IN	TERRE HAUTE	66	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
4597	Cedar Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	69.9	B	TX	San Angelo	0	BALLINGER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4598	THE PINES AT CATSKILL CENTER FOR NURSING & REHAB	0.3%	69.9	C	NY	CATSKILL	136	—
4599	WATERVIEW HILLS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	69.9	B	NY	PURDY STATION	130	—
4600	COVENANT VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.3%	69.9	B	FL	PLANTATION	60	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES

Showing 4,551–4,600 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.