3220 LAKE JOHANNA BOULEVARD, ARDEN HILLS, MN 55112 · CCN 245424 · chain PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
Composite
6.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
128
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 6.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.39
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.60
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.38
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.39
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
124.7
3.39
0.60
0.33
2.46
3.38
0.0%
2025Q3
92
124.5
3.37
0.54
0.36
2.47
3.34
0.0%
2025Q2
91
122.7
3.58
0.58
0.39
2.61
3.51
0.0%
2025Q1
90
121.1
3.55
0.70
0.28
2.57
3.50
0.0%
2024Q4
92
119.5
3.51
0.76
0.17
2.58
3.44
0.0%
2024Q3
92
123.0
3.53
0.75
0.20
2.58
3.49
0.0%
2024Q2
91
124.7
3.41
0.75
0.21
2.45
3.40
0.0%
2024Q1
91
124.5
3.43
0.70
0.23
2.50
3.38
0.0%
2023Q4
92
122.5
3.41
0.67
0.25
2.49
3.35
0.0%
2023Q3
92
122.3
3.46
0.64
0.26
2.56
3.39
0.6%
2023Q2
91
125.0
3.40
0.63
0.25
2.52
3.35
0.0%
2023Q1
90
120.6
3.51
0.66
0.27
2.58
3.50
0.0%
2022Q4
92
116.6
3.83
0.76
0.28
2.79
3.80
0.0%
2022Q3
92
117.9
3.76
0.73
0.26
2.78
3.79
0.0%
2022Q2
91
118.0
3.64
0.71
0.26
2.67
3.52
0.0%
2022Q1
90
116.0
3.82
0.71
0.28
2.83
3.77
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
22
D × 17E × 3F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-06
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-05-22
2025-05-01
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-06-05
2025-04-16
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-05-08
2024-09-12
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-10-29
2024-09-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-29
2024-09-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-10-29
2024-09-12
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2024-10-29
2024-09-12
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-10-29
2024-09-12
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-10-29
2024-09-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-10-29
2024-09-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-10-29
2023-08-30
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-10-13
2023-08-30
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2023-10-13
2023-07-26
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-08-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PRESBYTERIAN HOMES AND SERVICES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BREMER BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2011-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, JONATHAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, JONATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIPPERT, STACEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-18
current
pecos_ownership
MEYER, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-03-11
current
pecos_ownership
MEYER, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1995-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIELKE, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
PEDERSON, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON, HEIDI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHS MANAGEMENT, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
PHS MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-11
current
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN FLETCHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MEYER
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
1995-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK PEDERSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEIDI PETERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MIELKE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-08-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN FLETCHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MEYER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACEY LIPPERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1,851,078
—
—
—
$190,919
1
—
2023-09-30
$1,740,657
—
—
—
$155,827
1
—
2022-09-30
$1,562,760
—
—
—
$171,329
1
—
2021-09-30
$1,672,431
—
—
—
$106,070
1
—
2020-09-30
$1,947,713
—
—
—
$213,613
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27123
acs median gross
0
$1,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
0
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
1
$1,173
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
1
$1,405
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
2
$1,438
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
2
$1,709
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
3
$1,776
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
3
$2,262
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
4
$1,911
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
4
$2,531
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
5
$1,813
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
acs median gross
$1,329
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
acs recent mover gross
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55112
acs median gross
0
$1,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55112
acs median gross
1
$1,175
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55112
acs median gross
2
$1,412
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55112
acs median gross
3
$1,971
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55112
acs median gross
4
$1,717
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55112
acs median gross
$1,372
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55112
acs recent mover gross
$1,469
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 55112
payment standard 110
0
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 90
0
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
safmr
0
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 110
1
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 90
1
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
safmr
1
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 110
2
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 90
2
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
safmr
2
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 110
3
$2,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 90
3
$1,872
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
safmr
3
$2,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 110
4
$2,563
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
payment standard 90
4
$2,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55112
safmr
4
$2,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.