Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,351–4,400

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4351	Goshen Healthcare Community	0.4%	71.6	D	WY	Torrington	103	—
4352	EUFAULA MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.6	D	OK	EUFAULA	100	—
4353	CRESTPARK DEWITT, LLC	0.4%	71.6	B	AR	DE WITT	70	BELEW LLC
4354	St. Johnsbury Health & Rehab	0.4%	71.6	C	VT	Saint Johnsbury	99	—
4355	Rochester Manor	0.4%	71.6	B	NH	ROCHESTER	108	—
4356	George E. Wahlen Ogden Veterans Home	0.4%	71.6	B	UT	Ogden	120	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
4357	CONCHO HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.6	A	TX	EDEN	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4358	MEADOWBROOK AT BLOOMER	0.4%	71.6	A	WI	BLOOMER	31	—
4359	MAPLE LAWN NURSING HOME	0.4%	71.3	B	MO	PALMYRA	110	—
4360	LAKE TAYLOR HOSP	0.4%	71.3	B	VA	NORFOLK	192	—
4361	PARKVIEW CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	0.4%	71.3	C	NY	MASSAPEQUA	169	—
4362	HILL CREST MANOR	0.4%	71.3	C	MO	HAMILTON	90	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
4363	REGENCY FLORENCE	0.4%	71.3	B	OR	FLORENCE	72	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
4364	BELLS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.3	A	TN	BELLS	120	—
4365	SMP HEALTH - AVE MARIA	0.4%	71.3	A	ND	JAMESTOWN	100	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION LONG TERM CARE
4366	HILO BENIOFF MEDICAL CENTER	0.4%	71.3	A	HI	HILO	52	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
4367	Hillcrest Raleigh at Crabtree Valley	0.4%	71.3	A	NC	Raleigh	134	—
4368	PARKHOUSE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	71.3	D	PA	ROYERSFORD	467	—
4369	Monument Healthcare South Salt Lake	0.4%	71.3	C	UT	Salt Lake City	140	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
4370	NEWNAN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.3	C	GA	NEWNAN	104	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4371	St. Joseph Manor	0.4%	71.3	C	TX	Bryan	0	BURLESON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4372	ZERBE SISTERS NURSING CENTER,	0.4%	71.3	A	PA	NARVON	87	—
4373	Montezuma Specialty Care	0.4%	71.3	B	IA	Montezuma	41	CARE INITIATIVES
4374	FOLKESTONE	0.4%	71.3	A	MN	WAYZATA	30	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
4375	OLYMPIA TRANSITIONAL CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.3	B	WA	OLYMPIA	113	—
4376	PFLUGERVILLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.3	B	TX	PFLUGERVILLE	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4377	CHAPMAN HEALTHCARE CENTER, INC	0.4%	71.3	A	AL	ALEXANDER CITY	188	—
4378	Munson Healthcare Otsego Memorial Hospital LTCU	0.4%	71.3	A	MI	Gaylord	34	MUNSON HEALTHCARE
4379	ST ELIZABETH HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	71.3	C	IN	DELPHI	64	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
4380	SHORE POINTE CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.3	D	NJ	EATONTOWN	178	—
4381	SALEM PLACE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	0.4%	71.3	B	AR	CONWAY	103	—
4382	DELMAR CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.4%	71.3	B	NY	DELMAR	120	—
4383	THE STAYTON AT MUSEUM WAY	0.4%	71.3	B	TX	FORT WORTH	0	BUCKNER RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
4384	LAKEVIEW NURSING CENTER	0.4%	71.3	A	MS	GULFPORT	105	—
4385	Marlette Community Hospital LTCU	0.4%	71.3	A	MI	Marlette	39	BLUEWATER HEALTHCARE NETWORK
4386	SEVILLE CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.3	C	MO	SALEM	90	KRISLEY PROPERTIES LLC
4387	VILLA MARIA HEALTH AND REHAB CTR	0.4%	71.3	A	WI	HURLEY	70	—
4388	The Episcopal Church Home	0.4%	71.3	B	KY	Louisville	26	EPISCOPAL RETIREMENT HOMES INC
4389	CORNERSTONE GARDENS LLP	0.4%	71.3	D	TX	TEMPLE	130	BURMONT INC
4390	ABIGAIL HOUSE FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.3	B	NJ	CAMDEN	188	—
4391	Newark Manor Nursing Home Inc	0.4%	71.3	A	NY	Newark	60	—
4392	Waverly Gardens	0.4%	71.3	A	MN	NORTH OAKS	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
4393	ADVENTIST HEALTH SONORA - D/P SNF	0.4%	71.3	A	CA	SONORA	68	ADVENTIST HEALTH SYSTEM WEST
4394	OAKVIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.3	A	GA	SUMMERVILLE	151	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4395	ELDON NURSING & REHAB	0.4%	71.3	C	MO	ELDON	90	—
4396	CHATEAU REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	71.3	C	IN	FORT WAYNE	99	—
4397	TIMBERCREST CHURCH OF THE BRETHREN HOME	0.4%	71.3	A	IN	NORTH MANCHESTER	65	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
4398	FOUNTAINS, THE	0.4%	71.3	A	CA	YUBA CITY	145	ADVENTIST HEALTH SYSTEM WEST
4399	Valley Health Services Inc	0.4%	71.3	C	NY	HERKIMER	160	—
4400	Milford Meadows Care Center	0.4%	71.3	A	NE	Milford	80	—

Showing 4,351–4,400 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.