Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,001–4,050

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4001	SAINTS JOACHIM & ANNE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.5%	73.7	B	NY	BROOKLYN	200	—
4002	Thompson House Nursing Home	0.5%	73.7	B	VT	Brattleboro	43	—
4003	Avir at Borger	0.5%	73.7	C	TX	Borger	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4004	ABERDEEN VILLAGE	0.5%	73.7	A	KS	OLATHE	60	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
4005	Pomeroy Living Rochester Skilled Rehabilitation	0.5%	73.7	C	MI	Rochester Hills	182	—
4006	U-CITY FOREST MANOR	0.5%	73.7	F	MO	SAINT LOUIS	120	—
4007	MERRY HEART NURSING HOME	0.5%	73.7	A	NJ	SUCCASUNNA	113	—
4008	WOODCREST REHAB & RESIDENTIAL H C CENTER, L L C	0.5%	73.7	B	NY	FLUSHING	200	—
4009	HEALTH CENTER AT THE RENAISSANCE	0.5%	73.7	A	OH	OLMSTED TWP	85	ELIZA JENNINGS SENIOR CARE NETWORK
4010	GOTTLIEB MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.5%	73.7	A	IL	MELROSE PARK	32	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
4011	BURGESS SQUARE HEALTHCARE CTR	0.5%	73.7	A	IL	WESTMONT	203	—
4012	PARK VILLAGE HEALTH CARE CENTER INC	0.5%	73.7	A	OH	DOVER	90	—
4013	GOLFCREST NURSING CENTER	0.5%	73.7	C	FL	HOLLYWOOD	67	ZBL 18 LLC
4014	MOMENTOUS HEALTH AT RICHFIELD	0.5%	73.7	F	OH	RICHFIELD	72	—
4015	ROYAL SUITES HEALTH CARE & REHABILITATION	0.5%	73.7	C	NJ	GALLOWAY TOWNSHIP	186	—
4016	CURA OF MELROSE	0.5%	73.7	B	MN	MELROSE	75	—
4017	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT NEW BRITAIN	0.5%	73.7	C	CT	NEW BRITAIN	282	—
4018	Focused Care at Hogan Park	0.5%	73.7	C	TX	Midland	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
4019	AYDEN HEALTHCARE OF JACKSON	0.5%	73.7	C	OH	JACKSON	82	—
4020	REGENCY CARE OF ARLINGTON, LLC	0.5%	73.7	B	VA	ARLINGTON	240	—
4021	Country Care Manor	0.5%	73.7	B	TX	La Vernia	0	BEXAR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4022	VANDERMAN PLACE	0.5%	73.7	B	CT	WILLIMANTIC	124	—
4023	Munson Healthcare Crawford Continuing Care Center	0.5%	73.7	B	MI	Grayling	39	MUNSON HEALTHCARE
4024	LAURIE ANN NURSING HOME	0.5%	73.7	B	OH	NEWTON FALLS	60	—
4025	AZALEA TRAIL NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	73.7	A	TX	GRAND SALINE	0	—
4026	BLUE CIRCLE REHAB AND NURSING	0.5%	73.7	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	90	—
4027	Eastridge Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.5%	73.7	B	LA	ABBEVILLE	50	—
4028	THE VOSSWOOD NURSING CENTER	0.5%	73.7	F	TX	HOUSTON	224	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
4029	WOODSIDE VILLAGE	0.5%	73.7	A	ND	GRAND FORKS	138	ALTRU HEALTH SYSTEM
4030	PEARLVIEW REHAB & WELLNESS CTR	0.5%	73.7	A	OH	BRUNSWICK	68	GOLDSTAR CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
4031	LAKE HAMILTON HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	73.7	B	AR	HOT SPRINGS	84	—
4032	Allen Oaks Nursing and Rehab Center	0.5%	73.7	C	LA	OAKDALE	91	—
4033	Rice Estate Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.5%	73.7	A	SC	Columbia	80	LUTHERAN HOMES OF SC INC
4034	STONE COUNTY REHABILITATION AND NURSING CTR INC	0.5%	73.7	A	MS	WIGGINS	59	CORPORATE MANAGEMENT INC
4035	Bingham Memorial Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.4%	73.5	B	ID	Blackfoot	27	—
4036	COLLEGE STREET HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	73.5	B	TX	BEAUMONT	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
4037	SHEYENNE CROSSINGS CARE CENTER/TCU	0.4%	73.5	A	ND	WEST FARGO	64	EVENTIDE
4038	Solon Nursing Care Center	0.4%	73.5	A	IA	Solon	96	—
4039	Trinity Glen	0.4%	73.5	A	NC	Winston-Salem	117	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
4040	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY HOWARD	0.4%	73.5	A	SD	HOWARD	45	SANFORD
4041	BETHANY AT SILVER LAKE	0.4%	73.5	C	WA	EVERETT	151	BETHANY OF THE NORTHWEST
4042	CIRCLE OF CARE	0.4%	73.5	B	OH	SALEM	55	—
4043	The Enclave at Barnesville	0.4%	73.5	C	OH	BARNESVILLE	96	EPIC HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS LLC
4044	COUNTRYSIDE POST ACUTE	0.4%	73.5	C	GA	BUCHANAN	62	—
4045	CLINTON MANOR LIVING CENTER	0.4%	73.5	A	IL	NEW BADEN	37	—
4046	COVENANT LIVING AT INVERNESS	0.4%	73.5	C	OK	TULSA	44	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
4047	Avir at Winnsboro	0.4%	73.5	C	TX	WINNSBORO	0	TITUS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4048	VETERANS HOME OF CALIFORNIA - WEST LOS ANGELES	0.4%	73.5	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	312	DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
4049	Edenbrook of St Cloud	0.4%	73.5	B	MN	SAINT CLOUD	77	—
4050	DOVER CARE CENTER	0.4%	73.5	B	TN	DOVER	88	MEDICAL REHABILITATION CENTERS LLC

Showing 4,001–4,050 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.