Composite
49.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 82.3 | 54.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.99 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 48.7 | 37.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.24 | in index |
| chow risk | 71.6 | 52.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 8.26 | in index |
| staffing risk | 38.6 | 38.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 7.42 | in index |
| financial risk | 10.5 | 19.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 2.42 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 54.4 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 54.5 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 51.0 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 19.6 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 37.7 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 38.7 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 82.0 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 27.1 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 24.7 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 37.6 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 37.6 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 38.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 38.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.41 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.37 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.48 | -0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MN median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.48 | 3.49 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.19 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.50 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.47 | 3.59 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 64.5 | 3.48 | 0.19 | 1.02 | 2.28 | 3.50 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 66.6 | 3.49 | 0.19 | 0.94 | 2.36 | 3.42 | 3.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 64.7 | 3.45 | 0.17 | 0.99 | 2.29 | 3.31 | 0.4% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 64.1 | 3.48 | 0.23 | 0.91 | 2.34 | 3.31 | 4.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 64.8 | 3.42 | 0.30 | 0.88 | 2.24 | 3.27 | 3.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 61.6 | 3.31 | 0.30 | 0.76 | 2.25 | 3.27 | 0.4% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 65.4 | 3.36 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 2.22 | 3.28 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 67.7 | 3.35 | 0.41 | 0.75 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 1.4% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 64.9 | 3.53 | 0.40 | 0.88 | 2.25 | 3.43 | 6.7% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 61.9 | 3.24 | 0.30 | 0.97 | 1.97 | 3.02 | 10.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 58.6 | 3.35 | 0.33 | 0.92 | 2.10 | 3.14 | 7.1% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 64.1 | 3.30 | 0.38 | 0.81 | 2.10 | 3.09 | 0.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 64.7 | 3.13 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 1.94 | 3.00 | 2.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 61.4 | 3.31 | 0.35 | 1.04 | 1.92 | 3.00 | 10.6% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 62.3 | 3.59 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 2.22 | 3.09 | 5.8% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 64.2 | 3.31 | 0.55 | 0.74 | 2.02 | 3.10 | 3.5% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2025-08-29 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2025-08-29 |
| 2025-06-26 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | D | 2025-08-29 |
| 2024-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-02-03 |
| 2024-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2025-02-03 |
| 2024-08-01 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-07-29 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-05-15 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2024-06-26 |
| 2024-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-05-14 |
| 2024-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-05-14 |
| 2024-03-12 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-04-12 |
| 2023-10-17 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-11-22 |
| 2023-10-17 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-11-22 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-11-03 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0572 | Give residents a notice of rights, rules, services and charges. | D | 2023-11-10 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-11-04 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-11-03 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | C | 2023-10-25 |
| 2023-09-22 | Health · complaint | F0940 | Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members. | F | 2023-11-04 |
| 2023-02-02 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2023-03-20 |
| 2023-02-02 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-03-20 |
| 2023-02-02 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-03-20 |
| 2023-02-02 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2023-03-20 |
| 2023-02-02 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-03-20 |
| 2023-02-02 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2023-03-20 |
| 2023-02-02 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-03-20 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STESEL, MAXIM | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2016-07-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RICE, PAMELA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, MARLENE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2016-09-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARLENE SMITH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2016-09-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MAXIM STESEL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2016-07-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PAMELA RICE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-22 | CURA OF ONAMIA | — | — | — | 57 | CURA OF ONAMIA LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | SHAKOPEE FRIENDSHIP MANOR | — | — | — | 60 | SHAKOPEE CARE LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST | — | — | — | 48 | EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST LLC |
| 2024-10-29 | Cura of Sauk Centre | — | — | — | 60 | CURA OF SAUK CENTRE LLC |
| 2024-10-15 | Heartwood | — | — | — | 54 | CROSBY SENIOR SERVICES CARE CENTER |
| 2024-02-13 | Cura of Monticello | — | — | — | 67 | CURA OF MONTICELLO LLC |
| 2023-12-31 | MAPLEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 115 | MAPLEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2023-12-31 | SLEEPY EYE REHABILITATI CENTER | — | — | — | 61 | SLEEPY EYE REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2023-12-15 | ST BENEDICTS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 75 | ECUMEN SBC ST CLOUD PROPERTIES LLC |
| 2023-12-01 | Frazee Care Center | — | — | — | 42 | LEGACY SENIOR SERVICES |
| 2023-06-05 | CURA OF LE SUEUR | — | — | — | 50 | CURA OF LE SUEUR LLC |
| 2023-05-01 | LAKEHOUSE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 260 | LAKE HARRIET OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 27141 | acs median gross | 0 | $854 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27141 | fmr | 0 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27141 | acs median gross | 1 | $973 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27141 | fmr | 1 | $1,405 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27141 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,158 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27141 | fmr | 2 | $1,709 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27141 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,459 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27141 | fmr | 3 | $2,262 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27141 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,811 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27141 | fmr | 4 | $2,531 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27141 | acs median gross | $1,127 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 27141 | acs recent mover gross | $1,391 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 56304 | acs median gross | 0 | $779 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 56304 | acs median gross | 1 | $978 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 56304 | acs median gross | 2 | $969 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 56304 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,200 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 56304 | acs median gross | 4 | $838 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 56304 | acs median gross | $956 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 56304 | acs recent mover gross | $1,073 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | safmr | 0 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,375 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,125 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | safmr | 1 | $1,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,368 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | safmr | 2 | $1,520 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,222 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,818 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | safmr | 3 | $2,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,497 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,043 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 56304 | safmr | 4 | $2,270 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |