Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

401–450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
401	CAMPION HEALTH & WELLNESS, INC	5.5%	97.4	A	MA	WESTON	70	—
402	SLOVENE HOME FOR THE AGED	5.5%	97.4	A	OH	CLEVELAND	104	—
403	MOUNT ST MARY	5.5%	97.4	A	KS	WICHITA	24	CSJ INITIATIVES INC
404	BOWDLE NURSING HOME	5.5%	97.4	A	SD	BOWDLE	27	—
405	WHITNEY CENTER	5.5%	97.4	B	CT	HAMDEN	59	—
406	Lgar Health And Rehabilitation	5.5%	97.4	A	PA	TURTLE CREEK	60	—
407	Arkansas Health Center	5.5%	97.4	A	AR	BENTON	290	—
408	Wilmot Care Center Inc	5.5%	97.4	A	SD	WILMOT	26	—
409	RUNNINGWATER DRAW CARE CENTER INC	5.5%	97.3	A	TX	OLTON	75	—
410	LOS ARCOS DEL NORTE CARE CENTER	5.5%	97.3	C	TX	EL PASO	0	—
411	TABOR HILLS HEALTH CARE FAC	5.5%	97.3	B	IL	NAPERVILLE	96	—
412	York General Hearthstone	5.5%	97.3	B	NE	York	127	YORK GENERAL HOSPITAL
413	ST DOMINIC VILLAGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENT	5.5%	97.3	B	TX	Houston	158	—
414	Evergreen Health Center	5.4%	97.3	A	WI	Oshkosh	80	—
415	GOOD SAMARITAN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CARE CTR	5.4%	97.3	C	NY	SAYVILLE	100	—
416	PAVILION AT BRMC, THE	5.4%	97.3	A	PA	BRADFORD	95	—
417	San Rafael Health and Rehabilitation	5.4%	97.3	D	UT	Ferron	51	TRADITIONS HEALTH CARE INC
418	Wicomico Nursing Home	5.4%	97.3	C	MD	SALISBURY	102	—
419	HOOSIER VILLAGE	5.4%	97.3	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	24	BHI SENIOR LIVING INC
420	FOUR WINDS NURSING FACILITY	5.4%	97.3	B	OH	JACKSON	86	—
421	Platte Care Center	5.4%	97.3	B	SD	PLATTE	48	—
422	BAPTIST HEALTH NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.4%	97.3	B	NY	SCOTIA	262	—
423	Piedmont Crossing	5.4%	97.3	A	NC	Thomasville	104	—
424	MOUNTAIN VIEW HEALTHCARE	5.4%	97.3	B	MO	MOUNTAIN VIEW	105	WILLOW HEALTH CARE INC
425	Fond du Lac Lutheran Home	5.4%	97.2	C	WI	Fond du Lac	85	ILLUMINUS INC
426	CHOCTAW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.3%	97.2	C	MS	ACKERMAN	60	—
427	WEBSTER AT RYE	5.3%	97.2	A	NH	RYE	61	—
428	LINCOLN COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	5.3%	97.2	C	MO	LINCOLN	66	—
429	Bethany Home, Inc	5.3%	97.2	A	NE	Minden	64	—
430	Stanton Health Center	5.3%	97.2	A	NE	Stanton	70	—
431	Garfield County Nursing Home	5.3%	97.2	A	UT	Panguitch	21	—
432	WORTH COUNTY CONVALESCENT CENTER	5.3%	97.2	B	MO	GRANT CITY	50	—
433	C M Tucker Jr Nursing Care Center Fewell and Stone	5.3%	97.2	B	SC	Columbia	252	SOUTH CAROLINA DEPT OF MENTAL HEALTH ACCOUNTING OFFICE
434	Wisner Care Center	5.3%	97.2	A	NE	Wisner	38	—
435	NOKOMIS HC & SENIOR LIVING	5.3%	97.2	C	IL	NOKOMIS	92	—
436	TIOGA MEDICAL CENTER LTC	5.3%	97.2	A	ND	TIOGA	30	—
437	MARYLAND MASONIC HOMES LTD	5.3%	97.2	C	MD	COCKEYSVILLE	88	—
438	CHEROKEE TRAILS NURSING HOME	5.3%	97.2	F	TX	RUSK	0	BAYLOR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
439	Wakonda Heritage Manor	5.3%	97.2	B	SD	WAKONDA	38	—
440	Uintah Basin Rehabilitation and Senior Villa	5.3%	97.1	B	UT	Roosevelt	90	—
441	NORSELAND NURSING HOME	5.3%	97.1	A	WI	WESTBY	50	—
442	FATHER PURCELL MEMORIAL EXCEPTIONAL CHILDREN'S CTR	5.2%	97.1	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	58	—
443	HELLENIC NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	5.2%	97.1	B	MA	CANTON	154	—
444	Faith Lutheran Home	5.2%	97.1	A	IA	Osage	50	—
445	Cedar Lake Health and Rehab Center	5.2%	97.1	C	WI	West Bend	75	—
446	EDEN VALLEY CARE CENTER	5.2%	97.1	A	CA	SOLEDAD	59	—
447	WILLOWBROOKE CT SKILLED CARE CTR WESTMINSTER VLG	5.2%	97.1	A	AL	SPANISH FORT	60	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
448	OZARK HEALTH NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	5.2%	97.1	A	AR	CLINTON	118	—
449	ST MARYS CENTER INC	5.2%	97.1	A	NY	NEW YORK	39	—
450	Clinton Therapy & Living Center	5.2%	97.1	D	OK	Clinton	101	—

Showing 401–450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.