Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,301–3,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3301	LAURELS OF WORTHINGTON, THE	3.4%	80.5	C	OH	WORTHINGTON	95	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3302	APERION CARE FOREST PARK	3.4%	80.5	D	IL	FOREST PARK	232	DECLARATION OF TRUST OF YOSEF MEYSTEL
3303	WEBSTER PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.4%	80.4	A	MA	ROCKLAND	110	—
3304	MERCED NURSING & REHABILITATION CTR	3.4%	80.4	B	CA	MERCED	79	WHEATEN LLC
3305	Lee County Care & Rehabilitation Center	3.4%	80.4	C	KY	Beattyville	109	WHEATEN LLC
3306	BRYANT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.4%	80.4	B	GA	COCHRAN	75	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
3307	CROWN POINTE CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.4	B	OH	COLUMBUS	90	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3308	INN AT SARASOTA BAY CLUB	3.4%	80.4	A	FL	SARASOTA	44	—
3309	Woodlands Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	3.4%	80.4	A	NC	Fayetteville	80	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
3310	MARINA POINTE HEALTHCARE & SUBACUTE	3.4%	80.4	C	CA	CULVER CITY	116	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
3311	ROCKMART HEALTH	3.4%	80.4	B	GA	ROCKMART	73	CROSSROADS MEDICAL MANAGEMENT INC
3312	HARBOR POST ACUTE CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.4	C	CA	TORRANCE	127	CHARIS TR DTD 12 22 2016
3313	LIFE CARE CENTER OF WINTER HAVEN	3.4%	80.4	A	FL	WINTER HAVEN	177	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
3314	HOME AT HEARTHSTONE, THE	3.4%	80.4	A	OH	CINCINNATI	96	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3315	REST HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.4%	80.4	A	MS	RIPLEY	60	ORAND LP
3316	ARBORS AT MARIETTA	3.4%	80.4	C	OH	MARIETTA	133	B&Y TRUST
3317	AHC OF LAKEWOOD, LLC	3.4%	80.4	D	CO	LAKEWOOD	36	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3318	PARK ANAHEIM HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.4%	80.4	B	CA	ANAHEIM	115	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
3319	Kingston Health Center of Sylvania	3.4%	80.4	B	OH	SYLVANIA	127	KINGSTON HEALTHCARE INC
3320	CROCKER POINTE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.4%	80.4	A	OH	WESTLAKE	96	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3321	CAMBRIDGE CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.3	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	110	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
3322	SUNSET HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.3	C	MO	UNION	120	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
3323	PruittHealth-Raleigh	3.4%	80.3	B	NC	Raleigh	150	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3324	RESORT NURSING HOME	3.4%	80.3	B	NY	ARVERNE	280	—
3325	ROSE GARDEN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.4%	80.3	B	NJ	TOMS RIVER	128	—
3326	MAPLEWOOD CENTER	3.4%	80.3	C	MA	AMESBURY	120	—
3327	Huntersville Health & Rehabilitation Center	3.4%	80.3	B	NC	Huntersville	90	CHARLES 1994 FAMILY GRANTOR TRUST
3328	Medilodge of Richmond	3.4%	80.3	A	MI	Richmond	126	B&Y TRUST
3329	Ignite Medical Resort Edmond, LLC	3.4%	80.3	C	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	73	DIAKONOS GROUP LLC
3330	Hayward Post Acute	3.4%	80.3	B	CA	HAYWARD	99	9560 PICO LLC
3331	Roosevelt Park Nursing and Rehabilitation Communit	3.4%	80.3	A	MI	Muskegon	39	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
3332	BRUNSWICK POINTE TRANSITIONAL CARE	3.4%	80.3	A	OH	BRUNSWICK	91	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3333	SHENANDOAH NURSING HOME	3.4%	80.3	A	VA	FISHERSVILLE	84	BNV DYNASTY LLC
3334	CROSS CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.4%	80.2	A	FL	CROSS CITY	60	LBS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
3335	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PLYMOUTH	3.4%	80.2	A	MA	PLYMOUTH	150	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
3336	PINE CREEK CARE CENTER	3.4%	80.2	A	CA	ROSEVILLE	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3337	REGENCY CARE OF SILVER SPRING, LLC	3.4%	80.2	C	MD	SILVER SPRING	92	WW HEALTHCARE CONSULTANTS LLC
3338	PINELLAS POINT NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	3.4%	80.2	B	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	60	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3339	GRENADA REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.4%	80.2	D	MS	GRENADA	95	NEXION HEALTH INC
3340	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF TERRE HAUTE	3.4%	80.2	F	IN	TERRE HAUTE	176	—
3341	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING ROARING RIVER	3.4%	80.2	C	MO	CASSVILLE	90	—
3342	MONTE VISTA HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.4%	80.2	B	CA	DUARTE	69	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3343	CareOne At Hanover Township	3.4%	80.2	F	NJ	WHIPPANY	94	CARE ONE LLC
3344	Traditions Memory Care of Newton	3.4%	80.2	B	IA	Newton	46	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
3345	BELVIDERE HEALTH AND REHAB	3.4%	80.2	C	IL	BELVIDERE	80	—
3346	BETH HAVEN NURSING HOME	3.4%	80.2	B	MO	HANNIBAL	105	—
3347	MARLORA POST ACUTE REHAB HOSP	3.4%	80.2	B	CA	LONG BEACH	99	ABE AND RACHEL BAK FAMILY TRUST
3348	Pine Creek Rehabilitation and Nursing	3.4%	80.2	F	UT	Salt Lake City	34	—
3349	ARBOR REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	3.4%	80.2	B	CA	LODI	149	COVENANT CARE LLC
3350	Essex Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	3.4%	80.1	B	KY	Louisville	128	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC

Showing 3,301–3,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.