Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,201–3,250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3201	MONTGOMERY PLACE NURSING CENTER	3.5%	81.0	A	KS	INDEPENDENCE	43	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
3202	La Bella of Caseyville	3.5%	81.0	D	IL	CASEYVILLE	150	—
3203	SPANISH HILLS WELLNESS SUITES	3.5%	81.0	B	NV	LAS VEGAS	144	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
3204	HERITAGE HOUSE NURSING CENTER	3.5%	81.0	A	MS	VICKSBURG	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3205	Ashton Memorial Living Center	3.5%	81.0	B	ID	Ashton	38	—
3206	EMBASSY OF SWANTON	3.5%	81.0	A	OH	SWANTON	68	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3207	The Oaks at Longview	3.5%	81.0	C	TX	LONGVIEW	0	—
3208	BROADWAY HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.5%	81.0	B	CA	SAN GABRIEL	59	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3209	The Oaks at Belmont	3.5%	81.0	B	MI	Belmont	60	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3210	Goldsboro Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	3.5%	81.0	B	NC	Goldsboro	130	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
3211	MARQUIS NEWBERG	3.5%	81.0	B	OR	NEWBERG	54	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
3212	Cascadia of Boise	3.5%	81.0	B	ID	Boise	100	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
3213	PRUITTHEALTH - FLEMING ISLAND	3.5%	80.9	D	FL	FLEMING ISLAND	97	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3214	WESTVIEW NURSING HOME	3.5%	80.9	F	MO	CENTER	60	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
3215	WOODLAND MANOR NURSING CENTER	3.5%	80.9	B	MO	ARNOLD	178	RILEY SPENCE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
3216	Westfield Rehabilitation and Health Center	3.5%	80.9	B	NC	Sanford	83	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
3217	BOYNTON BEACH REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	80.9	B	FL	BOYNTON BEACH	168	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3218	THE LAURELS OF BON AIR	3.5%	80.9	A	VA	BON AIR	124	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3219	AVANTE AT MT DORA, INC	3.5%	80.9	A	FL	MOUNT DORA	116	AG HOLDINGS INC
3220	PruittHealth- Dillon	3.5%	80.9	F	SC	Dillon	84	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3221	CRYSTAL CREEK POST-ACUTE	3.5%	80.9	B	CA	STOCKTON	152	COVENANT CARE LLC
3222	RED BLUFF HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.5%	80.9	A	CA	RED BLUFF	58	HYCARE INC
3223	WARM SPRINGS MEDICAL CENTER NURSING HOME	3.5%	80.9	A	GA	WARM SPRINGS	79	—
3224	Sheridan Health and Rehabilitation Center	3.5%	80.9	C	WI	KENOSHA	81	—
3225	ARBORS AT SYLVANIA	3.5%	80.9	A	OH	TOLEDO	77	B&Y TRUST
3226	THE LAURELS OF CHARLOTTESVILLE	3.5%	80.8	B	VA	CHARLOTTESVILLE	120	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3227	Boulevard Temple Care Center, LLC	3.5%	80.8	A	MI	Detroit	124	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3228	The Timbers of Cass County	3.5%	80.8	B	MI	Dowagiac	108	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
3229	HARRISON TRAIL HEALTH CAMPUS	3.5%	80.8	C	OH	HARRISON	54	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3230	MURRIETA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	80.8	B	CA	MURRIETA	145	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3231	COURTYARD CARE CENTER	3.5%	80.8	C	CA	SIGNAL HILL	59	NAHS HOLDING INC
3232	DAYTONA BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	80.8	A	FL	DAYTONA BEACH	180	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3233	Medilodge of Monroe	3.5%	80.8	A	MI	Monroe	103	B&Y TRUST
3234	HARDING POINTE	3.5%	80.8	A	OH	MARION	50	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
3235	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - WOODLANDS CARE CENTER	3.5%	80.8	A	IN	NEWBURGH	120	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
3236	The Oaks at Byron Center	3.5%	80.8	B	MI	Byron Center	60	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3237	RESIDENCE AT HUNTINGTON COURT	3.5%	80.8	A	OH	HAMILTON	96	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3238	BOCA CIEGA CENTER	3.5%	80.8	D	FL	GULFPORT	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
3239	MEDICAL MANAGEMENT HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	3.5%	80.8	C	GA	MACON	100	R DAVIS HOLDINGS INC
3240	LEGRAND HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	80.8	A	LA	BASTROP	125	—
3241	BRIA OF BELLEVILLE	3.5%	80.8	C	IL	BELLEVILLE	140	—
3242	Huron Woods Nursing Center	3.5%	80.8	A	MI	Kawkawlin	60	PEPLINKSI HOLDINGS INC
3243	SPRINGSIDE REHABILITATION AND SKILLED CARE CENTER	3.5%	80.8	B	MA	PITTSFIELD	135	BANE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3244	METRO WEST NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	3.5%	80.8	A	FL	ORLANDO	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3245	COURT HOUSE MANOR	3.5%	80.8	A	OH	WASHINGTON COURT HOU	99	HCF INC
3246	AdviniaCare Oakland Grove LLC	3.5%	80.8	F	RI	Woonsocket	178	—
3247	GARDENS FOR MEMORY CARE AT EASTON, THE	3.5%	80.8	A	PA	EASTON	115	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
3248	SUMMIT ACRES NURSING HOME	3.5%	80.7	C	OH	CALDWELL	95	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
3249	ALDEN ESTATES OF NORTHMOOR	3.5%	80.7	C	IL	CHICAGO	198	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3250	COMMUNITY HEALTH CARE OF GORE	3.5%	80.7	C	OK	GORE	70	—

Showing 3,201–3,250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.