Reads as: riskier than 10.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
REGIONS BANK
63 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.87
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.71
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.94
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
144.0
3.87
0.27
0.95
2.65
3.71
0.0%
2025Q3
92
143.2
3.81
0.22
0.99
2.60
3.67
0.0%
2025Q2
91
143.0
3.75
0.23
0.95
2.57
3.61
0.0%
2025Q1
90
143.2
3.75
0.27
0.91
2.57
3.60
0.0%
2024Q4
92
142.6
3.81
0.32
0.88
2.61
3.65
0.0%
2024Q3
92
144.1
3.91
0.40
0.85
2.66
3.67
0.0%
2024Q2
91
142.4
3.90
0.38
0.89
2.63
3.80
0.0%
2024Q1
91
141.6
3.84
0.27
1.00
2.57
3.60
0.0%
2023Q4
92
140.9
3.94
0.19
1.07
2.68
3.69
0.0%
2023Q3
92
141.1
4.04
0.16
1.06
2.82
3.79
0.0%
2023Q2
91
138.2
3.90
0.17
1.02
2.71
3.74
0.0%
2023Q1
90
140.3
3.64
0.15
1.08
2.42
3.54
0.0%
2022Q4
92
137.4
4.02
0.22
1.05
2.75
3.82
0.0%
2022Q3
92
138.5
3.88
0.23
1.03
2.63
3.75
0.0%
2022Q2
91
139.4
3.59
0.21
0.86
2.52
3.49
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
7
D × 6E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-17
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-07-02
2024-02-01
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-02-26
2024-02-01
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
E
2024-03-01
2024-02-01
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-02-26
2024-02-01
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-02-26
2022-10-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-11-27
2022-10-27
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2022-11-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
28
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DAYTONA BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILIATI
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-06-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
DAYTONA BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILIATI
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-06-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ESTES, JAMES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
68%
1999-02-19
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES N ESTES JR FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2019-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2019-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER LEE ESTES TR 031093
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
LONG, PHILLIP
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MATHES, LORETTA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
MCVEA, CHERI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-27
current
pecos_ownership
RASCO, LYNN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
REGIONS BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2013-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
REGIONS BANK
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2010-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
SCHNEIDER, JULIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
TONEY, DARIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
DAYTONA BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILIATI
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-06-01
ended 2022-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
DAYTONA BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILIATI
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-06-01
ended 2021-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
DAYTONA BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILIATI
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-06-01
ended 2023-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
JAMES ESTES
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
1999-02-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORETTA MATHES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2023-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON AGEE
OTHER
33%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
OTHER
33%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERI MCVEA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
25%
2021-09-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARIN TONEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
25%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIE SCHNEIDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
25%
2023-04-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN RASCO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
25%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NHS MANAGEMENT LLC
OTHER
0%
2007-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-05-31
$1,684,386
$3,163
$972,357
—
—
3
propco
2024-05-31
$1,519,359
—
$844,244
—
—
3
propco
2023-05-31
$1,385,164
—
$800,279
—
—
3
propco
2022-05-31
$1,223,941
—
$737,607
—
—
3
propco
2021-05-31
$1,308,958
—
$688,948
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12127
acs median gross
0
$1,201
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12127
fmr
0
$1,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12127
acs median gross
1
$1,182
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12127
fmr
1
$1,385
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12127
acs median gross
2
$1,440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12127
fmr
2
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12127
acs median gross
3
$1,746
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12127
fmr
3
$2,241
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12127
acs median gross
4
$1,896
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12127
fmr
4
$2,429
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12127
acs median gross
5
$2,038
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12127
acs median gross
$1,467
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12127
acs recent mover gross
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32117
acs median gross
0
$1,563
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32117
acs median gross
1
$1,242
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32117
acs median gross
2
$1,370
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32117
acs median gross
3
$1,773
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32117
acs median gross
4
$1,749
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32117
acs median gross
$1,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32117
acs recent mover gross
$1,678
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32117
payment standard 110
0
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 90
0
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
safmr
0
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 110
1
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 90
1
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
safmr
1
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 110
2
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 90
2
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
safmr
2
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 110
3
$2,508
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 90
3
$2,052
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
safmr
3
$2,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 110
4
$2,717
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
payment standard 90
4
$2,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32117
safmr
4
$2,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.