Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

251–300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
251	Telford Terrace	7.1%	98.4	A	KY	Richmond	26	—
252	JML CARE CENTER INC	7.1%	98.4	C	MA	FALMOUTH	132	—
253	Bethel Home	7.1%	98.4	B	WI	Oshkosh	100	—
254	THE MEADOWS OF NAPA VALLEY	7.0%	98.4	A	CA	NAPA	69	PRS MANAGEMENT INC
255	Wellspring Lutheran Nursing and Rehab Services	7.0%	98.3	B	MI	Monroe	122	—
256	SOUTHWEST MEDICAL CENTER SNF	7.0%	98.3	B	KS	LIBERAL	18	—
257	GEER NURSING AND REHABILITATION	7.0%	98.3	C	CT	CANAAN	120	—
258	TWIN PINES ADULT CARE CENTER	6.9%	98.3	C	MO	KIRKSVILLE	120	—
259	DEKALB COUNTY REHAB & NURSING	6.9%	98.3	A	IL	DEKALB	190	—
260	AVERA OAHE MANOR	6.9%	98.3	B	SD	GETTYSBURG	53	—
261	POWDER RIVER MANOR	6.9%	98.3	D	MT	BROADUS	41	—
262	New Richland Care Center	6.9%	98.3	A	MN	NEW RICHLAND	45	—
263	MARYLAND BAPTIST AGED HOME	6.9%	98.3	A	MD	BALTIMORE	29	—
264	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT COKESBURY VILLAGE	6.9%	98.3	A	DE	HOCKESSIN	10	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
265	Markesan Resident Home	6.9%	98.3	A	WI	Markesan	50	—
266	WIREGRASS REHABILITATION CENTER & NURSING HOME	6.8%	98.3	A	AL	GENEVA	96	—
267	KUAKINI GERIATRIC CARE, INC	6.8%	98.3	D	HI	HONOLULU	187	—
268	GINGER COVE	6.8%	98.3	A	MD	ANNAPOLIS	55	—
269	FREDERICK LIVING - CEDARWOOD	6.8%	98.3	A	PA	FREDERICK	61	COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
270	Northfield Retirement Communities Care Center	6.8%	98.2	C	NE	Scottsbluff	66	—
271	SOUTHEAST COLORADO HOSPITAL LTC	6.8%	98.2	A	CO	SPRINGFIELD	56	—
272	Town Hall Estates	6.8%	98.2	F	TX	Hillsboro	138	—
273	Sutton Community Home, Inc.	6.8%	98.2	A	NE	Sutton	31	—
274	PRESTON RESIDENCE	6.8%	98.2	B	PA	WEST GROVE	38	—
275	SOUTH LYON MEDICAL CENTER	6.8%	98.2	A	NV	YERINGTON	49	—
276	MENNONITE HOME	6.8%	98.2	B	OR	ALBANY	95	—
277	KNOLLWOOD HSC	6.8%	98.2	A	DC	WASHINGTON	69	—
278	Traverse Care Center	6.8%	98.2	A	MN	WHEATON	44	MINNEWASKA LUTHERAN HOME
279	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT LUTHER RIDGE	6.7%	98.2	B	PA	CHAMBERSBURG	40	—
280	OZARKS METHODIST MANOR, THE	6.7%	98.2	A	MO	MARIONVILLE	78	—
281	MCLEAN COUNTY NURSING HOME	6.7%	98.2	A	IL	NORMAL	148	—
282	LA PLATA NURSING HOME	6.7%	98.2	B	MO	LA PLATA	52	—
283	LB BROEN HOME	6.7%	98.2	A	MN	FERGUS FALLS	74	—
284	UNITED HELPERS CANTON NURSING HOME	6.7%	98.2	A	NY	CANTON	160	UNITED HELPERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
285	CASEY'S POND SENIOR LIVING	6.7%	98.2	A	CO	STEAMBOAT SPRINGS	66	—
286	SOUTH MOUNTAIN RESTORATION CEN	6.7%	98.1	A	PA	SOUTH MOUNTAIN	159	—
287	Fairview Fellowship Home For Senior Citizens, Inc	6.7%	98.1	B	OK	Fairview	100	—
288	WYNDRIDGE HEALTH AND REHAB CTR	6.6%	98.1	B	TN	CROSSVILLE	157	—
289	BERGEN NEW BRIDGE MEDICAL CENTER	6.6%	98.1	B	NJ	PARAMUS	574	—
290	CARNEGIE NURSING HOME, INC.	6.6%	98.1	A	OK	CARNEGIE	100	—
291	RYDER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC	6.6%	98.1	B	PR	HUMACAO	62	RYDER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC
292	Wakefield Health Care Center	6.6%	98.1	A	NE	Wakefield	40	—
293	Huron County Medical Care Facility	6.6%	98.1	B	MI	Bad Axe	112	—
294	THE REDWOODS, A COMMUNITY OF SENIORS	6.6%	98.1	A	CA	MILL VALLEY	58	—
295	PIONEER NURSING HOME	6.5%	98.1	C	OR	VALE	33	—
296	Bay Bluffs-Emmet County Medical Care Facility	6.5%	98.1	A	MI	Harbor Springs	120	—
297	Hillcrest Home	6.5%	98.1	A	IA	Sumner	61	—
298	ST LUKE LUTHERAN COMMUNITY-PORTAGE LAKES	6.5%	98.1	B	OH	AKRON	56	—
299	Timely Mission Nursing Home	6.5%	98.1	A	IA	Buffalo Center	42	—
300	CITIZENS MEDICAL CENTER LTCU	6.5%	98.0	A	KS	COLBY	60	—

Showing 251–300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.