Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,101–2,150

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2101	MANOR COURT OF ROCHELLE	1.1%	86.3	C	IL	ROCHELLE	92	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
2102	CREST HAVEN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	86.3	C	NJ	CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE	180	—
2103	TANGLEWOOD NURSING & REHABILITATION	1.1%	86.3	D	KS	TOPEKA	54	—
2104	WILLIAMSTOWN COMMONS NURSING & REHAB	1.1%	86.3	B	MA	WILLIAMSTOWN	180	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
2105	RIM COUNTRY HEALTH & RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	1.1%	86.3	B	AZ	PAYSON	109	—
2106	SOUDERTON MENNONITE HOMES	1.1%	86.3	A	PA	SOUDERTON	71	MATEVOSYAN INC
2107	SWAN HEALTH AT WICHITA FALLS	1.1%	86.3	D	TX	WICHITA FALLS	72	—
2108	DECATUR REHAB & HEALTH CARE CT	1.1%	86.3	D	IL	DECATUR	58	—
2109	OHIO LIVING LLANFAIR	1.1%	86.3	A	OH	CINCINNATI	36	—
2110	GREENWICH WOODS REHABILITATION	1.1%	86.3	D	CT	GREENWICH	217	SJJJ LLC
2111	PUTNAM NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	86.3	F	NY	HOLMES	160	—
2112	VCU HEALTH CHILDREN'S SERVICES AT BROOK ROAD	1.1%	86.2	A	VA	RICHMOND	47	—
2113	Roosevelt Care Center At Old Bridge	1.1%	86.2	A	NJ	OLD BRIDGE	180	MIDDLESEX COUNTY IMPROVEMENT AUTHORITY
2114	HERITAGE AT BRANDON PLACE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.1%	86.2	C	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	118	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
2115	CLARK FORK VALLEY NURSING HOME	1.1%	86.2	B	MT	PLAINS	28	PLAINS HOSPITAL CORPORATION
2116	Myerstown Nursing and Rehab LLC	1.1%	86.2	B	PA	MYERSTOWN	152	STONERIDGE RETIREMENT LIVING COMMUNITIES INC
2117	Twin Rivers Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.1%	86.2	B	KY	Owensboro	132	—
2118	CREST VIEW LUTHERAN HOME	1.1%	86.2	B	MN	COLUMBIA HEIGHTS	106	—
2119	LUTHERAN HOME OF THE GOOD SHEPHERD	1.1%	86.2	A	ND	NEW ROCKFORD	51	—
2120	Meadowbrook at Appleton	1.1%	86.2	C	WI	Appleton	104	—
2121	GREELEY COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU	1.1%	86.2	A	KS	TRIBUNE	16	—
2122	Ball Pavilion, The	1.1%	86.2	B	PA	ERIE	85	—
2123	SHERWOOD MANOR NURSING HOME	1.1%	86.2	C	OK	TULSA	102	—
2124	Brown Health and Rehabilitation	1.1%	86.2	B	GA	ROYSTON	144	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2125	FARWELL CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	86.2	D	TX	FARWELL	0	—
2126	Caraday of Houston	1.1%	86.1	D	TX	Houston	0	CARA CAPITAL LLC
2127	WILLOW CREEK HEALTH CARE	1.1%	86.1	B	OK	GUTHRIE	100	HMLC LLC
2128	CHATEAU AT MOORINGS PARK, THE	1.1%	86.1	A	FL	NAPLES	106	THE MOORINGS PARK INSTITUTE INC
2129	EASTRIDGE	1.1%	86.1	C	KS	CENTRALIA	28	—
2130	PIPER SHORES	1.1%	86.1	A	ME	SCARBOROUGH	40	—
2131	WASHINGTON CO EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	1.1%	86.1	A	GA	SANDERSVILLE	60	—
2132	PINES OF SARASOTA	1.1%	86.1	A	FL	SARASOTA	171	—
2133	VMRC, COMPLETE LIVING CARE	1.1%	86.1	A	VA	HARRISONBURG	120	VIRGINIA MENNONITE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY INC
2134	THE KING'S DAUGHTERS & SONS NURSING HOME	1.1%	86.1	C	OK	DURANT	65	ARCP HEALTH LP
2135	Normandie Ridge	1.0%	86.0	B	PA	YORK	64	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
2136	GLENDALE HOME-SCHDY CNTY DEPT SOCIAL SERVICES	1.0%	86.0	A	NY	SCOTIA	200	—
2137	CALHOUN NURSING HOME	1.0%	86.0	A	GA	EDISON	60	THE HOSPITAL AUTHORITY OF MILLER COUNTY
2138	Bedford Specialty Care	1.0%	86.0	A	IA	Bedford	39	CARE INITIATIVES
2139	Richardson Nursing and Rehabilitation	1.0%	86.0	C	TX	Richardson	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2140	ROYAL WOOD MILL CENTER	1.0%	86.0	B	MA	LAWRENCE	94	—
2141	MANOR COURT OF PRINCETON	1.0%	86.0	A	IL	PRINCETON	125	RESIDENTIAL ALTERNATIVES OF ILLINOIS INC
2142	VICAR'S LANDING NURSING HOME	1.0%	86.0	A	FL	PONTE VEDRA BEACH	30	—
2143	ALLEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.0%	86.0	A	AL	MOBILE	119	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
2144	NOVANT HEALTH PRESBYTERIAN MEDICAL CENTER-SNU	1.0%	86.0	A	NC	CHARLOTTE	12	NOVANT HEALTH INC
2145	MARINA GARDEN NURSING CENTER	1.0%	86.0	A	CA	ALAMEDA	32	—
2146	WOOSTER COMMUNITY HOSPITAL SNF	1.0%	86.0	A	OH	WOOSTER	22	CITY OF WOOSTER
2147	GREENE POINT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.0%	86.0	B	GA	UNION POINT	64	CLINICAL SERVICES INC
2148	WEST GABLES HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.0%	86.0	A	FL	MIAMI	120	—
2149	St Joseph Residence	1.0%	86.0	A	WI	New London	50	—
2150	HATTON PRAIRIE VILLAGE	1.0%	86.0	A	ND	HATTON	38	ST JOHN LUTHERAN CHURCH

Showing 2,101–2,150 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.