1223 WEST BALTIMORE, DURANT, OK 74701 · CCN 375397 · chain ARCP HEALTH LP
Composite
61.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
65
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 61.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.82
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.55
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.71
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.86
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
33.6
3.82
0.55
0.95
2.32
3.71
0.0%
2025Q3
92
35.3
3.59
0.52
0.88
2.20
3.46
0.0%
2025Q2
91
33.0
3.82
0.66
0.96
2.20
3.41
0.0%
2025Q1
90
39.4
3.57
0.60
0.74
2.23
3.48
0.0%
2024Q4
92
40.6
3.21
0.42
0.77
2.02
2.78
0.0%
2024Q3
92
40.3
3.43
0.42
0.82
2.18
3.01
0.0%
2024Q2
91
41.5
3.51
0.36
0.94
2.21
3.09
0.0%
2024Q1
91
42.4
3.35
0.42
0.72
2.20
3.18
0.0%
2023Q4
92
41.8
3.31
0.38
0.73
2.19
3.17
0.0%
2023Q3
92
36.9
3.86
0.46
1.00
2.40
3.84
0.0%
2023Q2
91
37.6
3.88
0.34
1.07
2.47
3.81
0.0%
2023Q1
90
40.2
3.22
0.23
1.03
1.96
3.15
0.0%
2022Q4
92
40.9
3.22
0.18
1.13
1.91
3.55
0.0%
2022Q3
92
39.5
3.14
0.06
1.10
1.97
3.14
0.0%
2022Q2
91
38.8
3.15
0.02
1.09
2.03
2.96
0.0%
2022Q1
90
42.6
2.44
0.17
0.83
1.44
2.29
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2025-07-03
2025-06-19
Health · complaint
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-07-03
2024-02-06
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
F
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
F
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
E
2024-02-29
2024-02-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-02-29
2023-01-05
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-01-31
2023-01-05
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-01-31
2023-01-05
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-01-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARRUS HEALTHCARE, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARCP HEALTH, LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAGDURE, SATISH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-26
current
pecos_ownership
BAGDURE, SATISH
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARTLEY, CHRISTIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-26
current
pecos_ownership
BARTLEY, CHRISTIE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-09-26
current
pecos_ownership
BARTLEY, CHRISTIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARRUS HEALTHCARE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-26
current
pecos_ownership
NACHIMUTHU, ANBARASU
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAINS, JON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANBARASU NACHIMUTHU
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
75%
2020-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JON RAINS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2020-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIE BARTLEY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-09-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIE BARTLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIE BARTLEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SATISH BAGDURE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SATISH BAGDURE
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$125,129
—
$125,129
—
—
0
—
2023-12-31
$173,254
—
—
—
—
0
—
2022-12-31
$151,207
—
$151,207
—
—
0
—
2021-12-31
$99,667
—
$99,667
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$84,974
$60,000
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40013
acs median gross
0
$658
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
0
$757
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
1
$682
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
1
$762
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
2
$920
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
2
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
3
$1,115
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
3
$1,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
4
$1,524
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
fmr
4
$1,491
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40013
acs median gross
$960
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40013
acs recent mover gross
$984
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74701
acs median gross
0
$670
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74701
acs median gross
1
$711
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74701
acs median gross
2
$930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74701
acs median gross
3
$1,146
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74701
acs median gross
4
$1,670
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74701
acs median gross
$962
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74701
acs recent mover gross
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74701
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 110
2
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 90
2
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
safmr
2
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 110
3
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 90
3
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
safmr
3
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 110
4
$1,705
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
payment standard 90
4
$1,395
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74701
safmr
4
$1,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.