Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,951–2,000

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1951	GRAFTON COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.2%	87.3	B	NH	NORTH HAVERHILL	135	—
1952	Avantara Joliet	1.2%	87.3	D	IL	JOLIET	154	PRIME HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1953	Wellspring Lutheran Services	1.2%	87.2	B	MI	Frankenmuth	83	—
1954	Ridgewood Rehabilitation & Care Center	1.2%	87.2	C	NE	Seward	82	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
1955	FAIRVIEW HEALTHCARE RESIDENCE	1.2%	87.2	F	TX	FAIRFIELD	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1956	BAYOU MANOR	1.2%	87.2	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	BRAZOS PRESBYTERIAN HOMES, INC
1957	HAVEN HALL HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.2%	87.2	B	MS	BROOKHAVEN	81	—
1958	COMER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.2%	87.2	B	GA	COMER	116	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
1959	Oceana County Medical Care Facility	1.2%	87.2	A	MI	Hart	115	—
1960	AVIR AT HASKELL	1.2%	87.2	B	TX	HASKELL	0	COUNTY OF THROCKMORTON
1961	BEARE MANOR	1.2%	87.2	A	OK	HARTSHORNE	60	—
1962	MASONIC VILLAGE AT SEWICKLEY	1.2%	87.2	A	PA	SEWICKLEY	128	—
1963	CROSS TIMBERS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.2%	87.2	D	OK	MIDWEST CITY	187	RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
1964	VILLAGE AT COOK SPRINGS SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	1.2%	87.2	A	AL	PELL CITY	168	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
1965	OHIO EASTERN STAR HLTH CARE CTR THE	1.2%	87.2	B	OH	MOUNT VERNON	86	—
1966	OAK BEND MEDICAL CENTER	1.2%	87.2	D	TX	RICHMOND	36	—
1967	MONTGOMERY NURSING & REHAB CTR	1.2%	87.2	F	IL	HILLSBORO	110	—
1968	COUNTRY VIEW LIVING	1.2%	87.2	A	TX	DIMMITT	54	—
1969	WIBAUX COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.2%	87.2	F	MT	WIBAUX	40	—
1970	CEDARS THE	1.2%	87.2	A	IN	LEO	65	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1971	PRESBYTERIAN INTERCOMM HOSP DP/SNF	1.2%	87.2	A	CA	WHITTIER	35	PIH HEALTH WHITTIER HOSPITAL
1972	Calhoun County Medical Care Facility	1.2%	87.2	A	MI	Battle Creek	120	COUNTY OF CALHOUN
1973	RICHLAND HILLS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTE	1.2%	87.2	C	TX	FORT WORTH	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1974	QUARRYVILLE PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	1.2%	87.2	B	PA	QUARRYVILLE	130	—
1975	BLAND COUNTY NURSING & REHAB CENTER	1.2%	87.2	A	VA	BASTIAN	57	MCCLINTIC OPERATIONS HOLDCO II LLC
1976	Ferncrest Manor Living Center	1.2%	87.1	C	LA	New Orleans	200	—
1977	WEBSTER PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.2%	87.1	A	MA	ROCKLAND	110	—
1978	WALTER B CROOK NURSING FACILITY	1.2%	87.1	A	MS	RULEVILLE	60	—
1979	Maryhill Manor	1.2%	87.1	B	WI	Niagara	50	—
1980	IHM Senior Living Community	1.2%	87.1	A	MI	Monroe	58	SAINT THERESE
1981	Cisne Rehabilitation and Health Care Center	1.2%	87.0	B	IL	CISNE	35	—
1982	GLENHAVEN	1.2%	87.0	B	WI	GLENWOOD CITY	44	—
1983	LAUREL BAY HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.2%	87.0	D	NJ	KEANSBURG	123	—
1984	Mitchell Care Center	1.2%	87.0	B	NE	Mitchell	50	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
1985	MORAVIAN HALL SQUARE HEALTH AND WELLNESS CENTER	1.2%	87.0	B	PA	NAZARETH	61	UNITAS COMMUNITIES
1986	TALLAHATCHIE GENERAL HOSP ECF	1.2%	87.0	A	MS	CHARLESTON	98	—
1987	Rocky Knoll Health Care	1.2%	87.0	A	WI	Plymouth	149	HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
1988	BERKELEY SQUARE RETIREMENT CEN	1.2%	87.0	B	OH	HAMILTON	33	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
1989	ST FRANCIS HOME	1.2%	87.0	A	MN	BRECKENRIDGE	80	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
1990	WI VETERANS HOME AT CHIPPEWA FALLS	1.2%	87.0	A	WI	CHIPPEWA FALLS	72	STATE OF WISCONSIN
1991	The Village	1.2%	87.0	A	IA	Indianola	54	WESLEYLIFE
1992	Sunset Manor Avera Health	1.2%	87.0	A	SD	IRENE	58	SUNSET MANOR INC
1993	HEMET VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.2%	87.0	A	CA	HEMET	113	—
1994	SUNNY HILL NURSING HOME OF WILL COUNTY	1.2%	87.0	A	IL	JOLIET	157	—
1995	GROSSMONT HOSPITAL D/P SNF	1.2%	87.0	A	CA	LA MESA	30	SHARP HEALTHCARE
1996	MARSHALL MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.2%	86.9	B	TX	MARSHALL	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1997	FRIENDSHIP HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER - SOUTH	1.2%	86.9	A	VA	ROANOKE	120	FRIENDSHIP FOUNDATION INC
1998	WINFIELD REST HAVEN II, LLC	1.2%	86.9	A	KS	WINFIELD	41	GRACE TEAM LLC
1999	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT ST ANDREWS ESTATES	1.2%	86.9	A	FL	BOCA RATON	89	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2000	COMMUNITY HEALTH CARE OF GORE	1.2%	86.9	C	OK	GORE	70	—

Showing 1,951–2,000 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.