Composite
58.5 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 68.7 | 47.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.85 | in index |
| staffing risk | 63.2 | 63.2 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 12.15 | in index |
| financial risk | 45.4 | 42.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.48 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 34.8 | 24.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.03 | in index |
| chow risk | 43.1 | 41.4 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.97 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 47.1 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 57.7 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 42.7 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 24.4 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 63.2 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 82.5 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 51.1 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 46.8 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 24.3 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 24.3 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 63.2 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 63.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.91 | -1.56 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.85 | -0.45 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | -0.11 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 4.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.85 | -0.44 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.91 | -0.25 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MD median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.09 | 3.32 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.00 | 3.17 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.12 | 3.36 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 102.4 | 3.09 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 1.96 | 3.00 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 100.4 | 3.18 | 0.52 | 0.68 | 1.98 | 3.08 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 104.8 | 3.12 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 1.90 | 2.96 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 106.1 | 3.02 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 1.86 | 2.93 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 104.8 | 2.95 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 1.80 | 2.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 97.5 | 3.01 | 0.41 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 2.88 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 100.6 | 2.92 | 0.41 | 0.82 | 1.68 | 2.74 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 100.7 | 2.97 | 0.49 | 0.85 | 1.63 | 2.90 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 93.0 | 3.10 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 1.81 | 2.98 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 87.7 | 2.99 | 0.36 | 0.79 | 1.83 | 2.97 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 85.0 | 2.08 | 0.26 | 0.62 | 1.20 | 1.86 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 92.3 | 2.87 | 0.42 | 0.82 | 1.64 | 2.82 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 88.6 | 2.79 | 0.47 | 0.82 | 1.50 | 2.69 | 1.6% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 88.3 | 2.47 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 1.27 | 2.34 | 7.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 87.3 | 2.62 | 0.48 | 0.79 | 1.36 | 2.42 | 9.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 86.6 | 2.81 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 1.51 | 2.56 | 16.5% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-12-02 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-12-02 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-12-02 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-12-02 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2019-11-25 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | B | 2020-01-09 |
| 2019-11-25 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2020-01-09 |
| 2019-11-25 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2020-01-09 |
| 2019-11-25 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2020-01-09 |
| 2019-11-25 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2020-01-09 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | B | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0713 | Provide or arrange emergency care by a doctor 24 hours a day. | B | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2018-12-11 |
| 2018-10-29 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | D | 2018-12-11 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD3 OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MERMELSTEIN, BORUCH | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 45% | 2023-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GREEN, DOV | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 43% | 2023-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZAGER, NACHUM | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2023-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RIBIKOW, JACK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BORUCH MERMELSTEIN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 45% | 2023-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DOV GREEN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 43% | 2023-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NACHUM ZAGER | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2023-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JACK RIBIKOW | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-01 | — | BETHESDA OPERATOR LLC | MANOR CARE OF BETHESDA MD, LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | FROSTBURG REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 122 | KAYLOR FROSTBURG LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | SOUTH MOUNTAIN REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 157 | SM REHAB |
| 2024-12-01 | ST. ELIZABETH REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 162 | ST. ELIZABETH OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | SNOW HILL REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 69 | SNOW HILL SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | DENNETT REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | DENNETT SNF |
| 2024-09-01 | FREDERICK CROSSING OF JOURNEY | — | — | — | 120 | FREDERICK CROSSING OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | BAY HARBOR POST ACUTE HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 305 | BAY HARBOR OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | GREEN ACRES NURSING AND REHAB | — | — | — | 170 | 10200 LA PLATA OPCO LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | COPPER RIDGE NURSING AND ASSISTED LIVING CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | CARROLL MD OPCO LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | RESORTS OF AUGSBURG | — | — | — | 131 | RESORTS OF AUGSBURG CORP |
| 2023-12-01 | ROSSVILLE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 172 | ROSSVILLE SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-12-01 | TOWSON REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 132 | TOWSON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,685 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 0 | $1,953 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,819 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 1 | $2,015 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,113 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 2 | $2,246 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,515 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 3 | $2,835 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,095 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 4 | $3,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | $2,068 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 24031 | acs recent mover gross | $2,226 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 20817 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,882 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20817 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,800 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20817 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,354 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20817 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20817 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20817 | acs median gross | $3,185 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 20817 | acs recent mover gross | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $3,223 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,637 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | safmr | 0 | $2,930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $3,322 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,718 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | safmr | 1 | $3,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,707 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $3,033 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | safmr | 2 | $3,370 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,675 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,825 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | safmr | 3 | $4,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $5,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $4,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20817 | safmr | 4 | $5,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |