Screener / 555365

PALM TERRACE CARE CENTER

snfCA

11162 PALM TERRACE LANE, RIVERSIDE, CA 92505 · CCN 555365 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC

Composite

21.8 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 21.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 ML signals3 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies25 Licensure0 Ownership18 Related party5 Transactions1 Comps12 Market rent36

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
billing conduct	90.7	60.4	0.30	0.2308	20.93	in index
regulatory risk	40.4	29.4	0.30	0.2308	9.32	in index
staffing risk	13.4	13.5	0.25	0.1923	2.58	in index
chow risk	18.0	17.6	0.15	0.1154	2.08	in index
financial risk	8.9	18.1	0.30	0.2308	2.05	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

ML signals — parallel engine

Kind	Finding	Signal	Subject	First seen
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	18 chains	ENSIGN SERVICES INC	286 facilities
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	17 chains	BURNAM SOON	335 facilities
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	17 chains	KEETCH CHAD	283 facilities

Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	60.4	C	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	25.0	B	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	10.1	A	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	18.1	A	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.0	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	0.0	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	29.4	B	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	13.5	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	55.3	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	35.3	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	31.5	B	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	24.2	A	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	29.2	B	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	29.2	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	13.5	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	13.5	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

0.0%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

7.0

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Never sold on record	0.00	-1.62
Current owner tenure (years)	3.49	-1.51
Ownership changes, last 5 years	1.00	-0.87
Chain size (log)	5.46	+0.76
For-profit ownership	1.00	+0.69
Occupancy	0.94	-0.69
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	4.17	-0.22

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.0%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

0.0

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Chain size (log)	5.46	-1.98
Deficiencies, last 12 months	1.00	+1.24
Occupancy	0.94	-0.79
For-profit ownership	1.00	-0.69
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	4.17	-0.40
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Never sold on record	0.00	-0.28
Current owner tenure (years)	3.49	-0.24

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	CA median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	4.17	3.95	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.26	0.38	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.83	3.79	3.11	—
Weekday total	4.30	4.01	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	66.4	4.17	0.26	1.20	2.71	3.83	0.0%
2025Q3	92	68.3	4.02	0.27	1.11	2.64	3.64	0.0%
2025Q2	91	67.1	4.09	0.26	1.16	2.68	3.80	0.0%
2025Q1	90	65.2	4.23	0.28	1.25	2.70	3.83	0.0%
2024Q4	92	65.9	4.31	0.27	1.29	2.75	3.83	0.0%
2024Q3	92	67.6	4.24	0.27	1.25	2.73	3.83	0.0%
2024Q2	91	67.8	4.05	0.26	1.15	2.64	3.70	0.0%
2024Q1	91	68.6	3.88	0.26	1.14	2.49	3.66	0.0%
2023Q4	92	66.1	3.80	0.27	1.17	2.36	3.50	0.0%
2023Q3	92	68.0	3.69	0.28	1.18	2.22	3.29	0.0%
2023Q2	91	66.2	3.67	0.28	1.31	2.08	3.15	0.0%
2023Q1	90	67.8	3.84	0.27	1.28	2.29	3.31	0.0%
2022Q4	92	63.3	4.31	0.27	1.38	2.66	3.90	0.0%
2022Q3	92	64.9	4.32	0.25	1.39	2.67	3.89	0.0%
2022Q2	91	64.6	4.36	0.28	1.36	2.71	4.03	0.0%
2022Q1	90	65.2	4.12	0.27	1.22	2.63	3.98	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

D × 14E × 8F × 3

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2026-04-08	Health · complaint	F0607	Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.	D	2026-05-06
2025-05-16	Health	F0550	Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.	D	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0558	Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.	E	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0584	Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.	D	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0641	Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.	D	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0685	Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.	D	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0725	Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.	E	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0790	Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident.	D	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0810	Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.	D	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	F	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	E	2025-06-12
2025-05-16	Health	F0925	Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.	F	2025-06-12
2024-05-10	Health	F0578	Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.	D	2024-05-31
2024-05-10	Health	F0755	Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.	E	2024-05-31
2024-05-10	Health	F0802	Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.	F	2024-05-31
2024-05-10	Health	F0805	Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.	E	2024-05-31
2024-05-10	Health	F0806	Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.	D	2024-05-31
2024-05-10	Health	F0808	Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.	D	2024-05-31
2024-05-10	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	E	2024-05-31
2024-05-10	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	D	2024-05-31
2023-07-31	Health · complaint	F0842	Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.	D	2023-08-10
2023-05-25	Health	F0684	Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.	E	2023-06-23
2023-05-25	Health	F0695	Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.	D	2023-06-23
2023-05-25	Health	F0755	Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.	D	2023-06-23
2023-05-25	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	E	2023-06-23

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
AYOUBY, QAIS	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-06-29	current	pecos_ownership
AYOUBY, QAIS	MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY	—	2023-12-01	current	pecos_ownership
BURNAM, SOON	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2022-11-08	current	pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2022-10-31	current	pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2011-03-01	current	pecos_ownership
LEET, RYAN	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2023-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
LEET, RYAN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-06-29	current	pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY	INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-06-29	current	pecos_ownership
SATO, AMI	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-09-09	current	pecos_ownership
SCOTT, MATTHEW	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2023-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
WILLITS, ADAM	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2023-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
FLAGSTONE HEALTHCARE CENTRAL LLC	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	100%	2022-11-08	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	100%	2023-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ADAM WILLITS	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2023-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
CRAIG FITCH	CORPORATE OFFICER	0%	2023-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MATTHEW SCOTT	CORPORATE OFFICER	0%	2023-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
RYAN LEET	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	0%	2023-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM	CORPORATE OFFICER	0%	2022-11-08	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-12-31	$1,487,449	—	$1,039,068	—	—	3	—
2023-12-31	$1,212,364	—	$835,974	—	—	3	—
2022-12-31	$763,897	—	—	—	—	1	—
2021-12-31	$720,638	—	—	—	—	1	—
2020-12-31	$597,712	—	—	—	—	1	—

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

Close date	Price	Buyer	Seller	Evidence
2023-02-01	—	GOLDENSTAR HEALTHCARE INC	P.T.C.H., INC.	chow

Comparable trades — CA snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-08-01	Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	—	—	—	144	TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC.
2025-04-01	ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION	—	—	—	150	MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC.
2025-04-01	PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	—	—	—	99	STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC
2025-01-16	GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER	—	—	—	99	CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC
2024-12-30	GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER	—	—	—	86	HEISMAN LLC
2024-10-01	REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE	—	—	—	144	SOQUEL CARE LLC
2024-09-01	OAK GROVE POST ACUTE	—	—	—	119	4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC
2024-08-01	WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT	—	—	—	99	WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC
2024-05-01	MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER	—	—	—	66	OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC
2024-04-01	THE BRADLEY GARDENS	—	—	—	44	GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC
2024-04-01	SANTA FE POST-ACUTE	—	—	—	187	SKILLED BOBIER LLC
2024-04-01	BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE	—	—	—	45	SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 06065	acs median gross	0	$1,372	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065	fmr	0	$1,692	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065	acs median gross	1	$1,440	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065	fmr	1	$1,777	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065	acs median gross	2	$1,810	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065	fmr	2	$2,201	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065	acs median gross	3	$2,166	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065	fmr	3	$2,912	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065	acs median gross	4	$2,666	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065	fmr	4	$3,514	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065	acs median gross	5	$3,157	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065	acs median gross		$1,901	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065	acs recent mover gross		$2,268	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92505	acs median gross	0	$1,778	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92505	acs median gross	1	$1,892	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92505	acs median gross	2	$1,924	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92505	acs median gross	3	$2,186	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92505	acs median gross	4	$2,609	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92505	acs median gross	5	$3,500	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92505	acs median gross		$2,048	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92505	acs recent mover gross		$2,278	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 92505	payment standard 110	0	$2,222	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 90	0	$1,818	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	safmr	0	$2,020	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 110	1	$2,332	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 90	1	$1,908	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	safmr	1	$2,120	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 110	2	$2,893	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 90	2	$2,367	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	safmr	2	$2,630	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 110	3	$3,828	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 90	3	$3,132	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	safmr	3	$3,480	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 110	4	$4,620	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	payment standard 90	4	$3,780	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92505	safmr	4	$4,200	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.