Reads as: riskier than 3.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
58 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MD median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.20
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.57
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.97
3.17
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.28
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
37.2
4.20
0.57
1.31
2.31
3.97
1.5%
2025Q3
92
37.1
4.15
0.63
1.16
2.36
3.98
2.5%
2025Q2
91
37.0
4.21
0.64
1.16
2.41
4.05
1.0%
2025Q1
90
36.3
4.06
0.70
1.04
2.32
3.94
0.7%
2024Q4
92
38.2
4.19
0.83
0.98
2.38
4.03
3.1%
2024Q3
92
41.9
4.21
0.75
1.11
2.35
4.15
1.9%
2024Q2
91
44.2
3.99
0.83
0.91
2.25
3.96
3.5%
2024Q1
91
44.4
4.02
0.87
0.89
2.26
4.05
7.9%
2023Q4
92
43.2
4.04
0.61
1.09
2.33
3.96
4.4%
2023Q3
92
39.6
4.41
0.63
1.33
2.46
4.36
2.7%
2023Q2
91
36.6
4.14
0.69
1.01
2.45
4.12
5.4%
2023Q1
90
37.6
4.04
0.75
0.85
2.44
4.10
2.1%
2022Q4
92
38.0
4.19
0.88
0.94
2.37
4.06
8.6%
2022Q3
92
38.3
4.34
1.26
0.78
2.30
3.70
27.4%
2022Q2
91
37.7
4.22
1.52
0.48
2.22
3.81
45.9%
2022Q1
90
33.8
3.95
1.35
0.64
1.97
3.80
39.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
20
D × 16E × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-18
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0776
Provide timely, approved x-ray services, or have an agreement with an approved provider to obtain them.
D
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0840
Employ or obtain outside professional resources to provide services in the nursing home when the facility does not employ a qualified professional to furnish a required service.
D
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2026-02-18
2025-12-18
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
D
2026-02-18
2024-07-24
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-24
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-24
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-24
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-24
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2024-08-30
2024-07-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-08-30
2024-07-24
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-08-30
2019-07-03
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2019-08-15
2019-07-03
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2019-08-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
52
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
THE CHESTNUT REAL ESTATE PARTNERSHIP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
98%
2010-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
BANK OF AMERICA CORP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-12-28
current
pecos_ownership
BIRD, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLESSING, LONNY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
CHESTNUT VILLAGE LLC
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2010-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINENTAL CARE INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, JAMES
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
DUFFY, PATRICK
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
EIRING, PHYLLIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
EIRING, PHYLLIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
LAHEY, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
LUETKEMEYER, JOHN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1992-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
MCCARTHY PARTNERS, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
MCMENAMIN, ROBERTA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
MULLAN, THOMAS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1992-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
ROSEDALE CARE INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1992-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
SHAPIRO, JOSEPH
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1990-04-25
current
pecos_ownership
SHAW, GELYNNA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-07
current
pecos_ownership
THE CHESTNUT REAL ESTATE PARTNERSHIP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
THE JOHN A.LUETKEMEYER, JR. REVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2003-01-14
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS F. MULLAN, III REVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-06-20
current
pecos_ownership
UHLEMANN, BRIDGETTE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
VICTOR, JASON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST JOPPA ROAD LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2010-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
ZIBELL, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
ZIBELL, JEFFREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-16
current
pecos_ownership
LCS HOLDING COMPANY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2021-12-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE COMPANIES LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2010-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES COMMUNITIES, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2010-12-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RCI LEGACY HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
37%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REDWOOD HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
37%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN LUETKEMEYER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
1992-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS MULLAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
1992-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH SHAPIRO
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
1990-04-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MPM SENIOR LIVING INVESTORS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LCS MANAGEMENT HOLDING COMPANY, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MCCARTHY GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LONNY BLESSING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2023-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIDGETTE UHLEMANN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL LAHEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GELYNNA SHAW
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON VICTOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY ZIBELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY ZIBELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BIRD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHYLLIS EIRING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHYLLIS EIRING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERTA MCMENAMIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 24005
acs median gross
0
$1,403
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24005
fmr
0
$1,362
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24005
acs median gross
1
$1,360
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24005
fmr
1
$1,511
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24005
acs median gross
2
$1,664
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24005
fmr
2
$1,857
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24005
acs median gross
3
$1,948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24005
fmr
3
$2,358
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24005
acs median gross
4
$2,180
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24005
fmr
4
$2,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24005
acs median gross
5
$2,076
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24005
acs median gross
$1,627
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24005
acs recent mover gross
$1,814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21204
acs median gross
0
$1,722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21204
acs median gross
1
$1,729
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21204
acs median gross
2
$2,127
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21204
acs median gross
3
$2,188
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21204
acs median gross
4
$1,284
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21204
acs median gross
$1,875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 21204
acs recent mover gross
$1,649
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 21204
payment standard 110
0
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 90
0
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
safmr
0
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 110
1
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 90
1
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
safmr
1
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 110
2
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 90
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
safmr
2
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 110
3
$3,069
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 90
3
$2,511
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
safmr
3
$2,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 110
4
$3,399
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
payment standard 90
4
$2,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 21204
safmr
4
$3,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.