Reads as: riskier than 35.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.53
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.43
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.46
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.55
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
92.4
3.53
0.43
0.81
2.28
3.46
0.0%
2025Q3
92
93.8
3.50
0.53
0.62
2.35
3.18
0.0%
2025Q2
91
93.9
3.44
0.46
0.65
2.33
3.15
0.0%
2025Q1
90
94.3
3.39
0.44
0.75
2.20
3.21
0.0%
2024Q4
92
94.2
3.41
0.48
0.69
2.25
3.35
0.0%
2024Q3
92
94.6
3.28
0.38
0.65
2.25
3.04
0.0%
2024Q2
91
92.8
3.10
0.39
0.65
2.07
2.77
0.0%
2024Q1
91
93.6
2.96
0.42
0.77
1.77
2.69
0.0%
2023Q4
92
91.3
2.97
0.39
0.81
1.76
2.83
0.0%
2023Q3
92
92.3
2.64
0.38
0.80
1.47
2.48
0.0%
2023Q2
91
91.2
2.55
0.44
0.70
1.42
2.29
0.0%
2023Q1
90
85.5
2.64
0.40
0.69
1.55
2.63
0.0%
2022Q4
92
89.2
2.73
0.48
0.69
1.56
2.58
0.0%
2022Q3
92
89.8
2.60
0.43
0.61
1.56
2.46
0.0%
2022Q2
91
90.5
2.92
0.48
0.55
1.88
2.94
0.0%
2022Q1
90
79.0
2.83
0.45
0.63
1.75
2.80
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
19
C × 1D × 15F × 1G × 1J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-09-18
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-09-15
2024-11-12
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2024-11-20
2024-11-12
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-11-20
2024-10-10
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-10-21
2024-02-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-02-27
2020-03-05
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2020-03-27
2020-03-05
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2020-03-27
2020-03-05
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2020-03-27
2019-02-20
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
J
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-20
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
F
2019-03-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
BARRY N BORTZ 06042009 TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
72%
2019-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
BORTZ FAMILY IRREVOCABLE T/A
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2019-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
CARESPRING HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
CHIRUMBOLO, CHRISTOPHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, BRIDGET
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
EPPERS, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
SYCAMORESPRING LP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SYCAMORESPRING LP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BRIDGET DAVIS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2024-07-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER CHIRUMBOLO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-11-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID EPPERS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-11-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SYCAMORESPRING LP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,856,107
—
$804,620
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$2,262,144
—
$652,382
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$1,620,380
—
$596,548
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$478,017
—
$478,017
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$487,143
—
$487,143
—
—
1
—
2019-12-31
$63,225
—
$63,225
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39113
acs median gross
0
$728
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
0
$928
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
1
$816
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
1
$1,009
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
2
$1,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
2
$1,273
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
3
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
3
$1,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
4
$1,282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
fmr
4
$1,817
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39113
acs median gross
5
$1,470
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
acs median gross
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39113
acs recent mover gross
$1,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45342
acs median gross
0
$1,175
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45342
acs median gross
1
$1,188
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45342
acs median gross
2
$1,304
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45342
acs median gross
3
$1,404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45342
acs median gross
4
$1,803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45342
acs median gross
$1,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45342
acs recent mover gross
$1,445
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 45342
payment standard 110
0
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 90
0
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
safmr
0
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 110
1
$1,342
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 90
1
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
safmr
1
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 110
2
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 90
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
safmr
2
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 110
3
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 90
3
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
safmr
3
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 110
4
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
payment standard 90
4
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45342
safmr
4
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.