Reads as: riskier than 44.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.88
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.88
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.89
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
46.9
2.88
0.37
0.69
1.82
2.88
0.1%
2025Q3
92
47.8
2.91
0.40
0.68
1.82
2.86
0.1%
2025Q2
91
45.6
2.91
0.47
0.64
1.80
2.76
2.9%
2025Q1
90
46.1
2.92
0.54
0.51
1.86
2.82
0.0%
2024Q4
92
43.2
3.28
0.53
0.65
2.10
3.25
0.0%
2024Q3
92
41.3
3.15
0.55
0.76
1.85
2.97
0.0%
2024Q2
91
39.6
3.03
0.43
0.78
1.83
3.00
0.0%
2024Q1
91
38.4
3.25
0.38
0.97
1.89
3.27
2.3%
2023Q4
92
42.0
2.80
0.43
0.79
1.58
2.77
12.4%
2023Q3
92
37.9
3.14
0.27
1.05
1.81
3.19
13.3%
2023Q2
91
36.8
3.13
0.30
1.00
1.84
3.17
14.3%
2023Q1
90
41.1
2.91
0.48
0.67
1.76
2.97
22.8%
2022Q4
92
39.3
2.67
0.52
0.67
1.49
2.59
13.6%
2022Q3
92
40.8
2.59
0.45
0.78
1.36
2.54
9.3%
2022Q2
91
37.7
2.70
0.43
0.92
1.35
2.53
9.4%
2022Q1
90
37.9
2.07
0.33
0.71
1.04
2.12
29.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
27
C × 1D × 15E × 6F × 5
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-11-06
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-11-15
2024-04-17
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-05-03
2024-04-17
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-05-03
2024-04-17
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-05-03
2024-04-17
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2024-05-03
2024-04-17
Health · complaint
F0807
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration.
E
2024-05-03
2024-04-17
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-03
2023-08-21
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2023-10-06
2023-08-21
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-10-06
2023-08-21
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-10-06
2023-08-21
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
F
2023-10-06
2023-08-21
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2023-10-06
2021-10-14
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
C
2021-11-11
2021-10-14
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2021-11-18
2021-10-14
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2021-11-18
2019-02-14
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
F
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2019-04-10
2019-02-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-04-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
STOW GROUP HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
ACM ASHEM HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
56%
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
500 SELFRIDGE
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
49%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
500 SELFRIDGE
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
49%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SCHONFELD, SIMCHA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
BIRNBAUM, EZRA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
DY, JOSE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, TYLER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
HIRSCH, SHAYE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
KELLER, STEPHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
MOERMAN, RAFAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
NPNH1 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
SHS KEREN LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
STOW PROPERTY HOLDINGS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
STOW PROPERTY ROLL UP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
STOW PROPERTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
RAFAEL MOERMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
56%
2025-02-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
500 SELFRIDGE
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
49%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
500 SELFRIDGE
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
49%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
500 SELFRIDGE
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
49%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SIMCHA SCHONFELD
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2025-02-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EZRA BIRNBAUM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2025-02-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAYE HIRSCH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2025-02-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSE DY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN KELLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TYLER EVANS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-02-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$476,445
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2023-12-31
$446,950
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2022-12-31
$398,543
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2021-12-31
$392,647
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2020-12-31
$436,612
—
—
—
—
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39153
acs median gross
0
$844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
0
$904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
1
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
1
$985
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
2
$1,080
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
2
$1,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
3
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
3
$1,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
4
$1,245
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
4
$1,681
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
5
$1,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
acs median gross
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
acs recent mover gross
$1,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44224
acs median gross
0
$861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44224
acs median gross
1
$1,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44224
acs median gross
2
$1,240
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44224
acs median gross
3
$1,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44224
acs median gross
4
$1,917
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44224
acs median gross
5
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44224
acs median gross
$1,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44224
acs recent mover gross
$1,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 44224
payment standard 110
0
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 90
0
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
safmr
0
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 110
1
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 90
1
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
safmr
1
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 110
2
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 90
2
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
safmr
2
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 110
3
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 90
3
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
safmr
3
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 110
4
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
payment standard 90
4
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44224
safmr
4
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.