Reads as: riskier than 50.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.46
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.30
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.27
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.54
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
53.9
3.46
0.30
1.00
2.17
3.27
10.0%
2025Q3
92
56.1
3.44
0.26
1.01
2.17
3.25
15.3%
2025Q2
91
62.1
3.40
0.29
0.98
2.13
3.27
22.0%
2025Q1
90
62.2
3.40
0.50
0.93
1.98
3.19
22.2%
2024Q4
92
53.9
3.76
0.63
1.11
2.02
3.46
18.9%
2024Q3
92
54.2
3.64
0.38
1.18
2.09
3.36
12.2%
2024Q2
91
54.4
3.42
0.34
1.21
1.88
3.08
14.4%
2024Q1
91
55.4
2.66
0.51
0.53
1.62
2.77
21.1%
2023Q4
92
50.5
3.50
0.19
0.95
2.35
2.88
20.3%
2023Q3
92
55.7
3.33
0.17
1.24
1.93
3.16
30.0%
2023Q2
91
54.2
3.30
0.15
0.99
2.15
3.04
30.0%
2023Q1
90
52.9
3.63
0.18
1.21
2.24
3.50
37.9%
2022Q4
92
54.2
3.19
0.27
1.01
1.91
2.93
44.4%
2022Q3
92
56.3
3.14
0.32
0.95
1.87
3.03
42.1%
2022Q2
91
52.4
3.06
0.38
0.82
1.86
2.73
18.2%
2022Q1
90
53.7
2.96
0.41
0.84
1.71
2.55
11.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
D × 6E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-20
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2026-03-22
2023-08-31
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-09-30
2020-01-23
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2020-02-27
2020-01-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2020-02-27
2019-02-27
Health
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-27
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2019-03-07
2019-02-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-03-12
2019-02-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-03-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BRADLEY, DON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
BRADLEY, DON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
BURTON, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, CLINTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, CLINTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLCOMBE, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLM, KURT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-08
current
pecos_ownership
KUPCHYNSKY, KATHLEEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-04
current
pecos_ownership
KUPCHYNSKY, KATHLEEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
OCOEE ARDMORE PROPERTY INVESTMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
OCOEE FOUNDATION INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE FOUNDATION INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE FOUNDATION INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHILLIPS, DOROTHY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
PIONEER CONSULTING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PIONEER CONSULTING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, JOHN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2008-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-02-22
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, MARGARET
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, MARGARET
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-18
current
pecos_ownership
SHEEHAN, MARGARET
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, FRANK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, ROBYN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
CLINTON DAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SHEEHAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2019-02-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET SHEEHAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2008-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OCOEE FOUNDATION INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE FOUNDATION INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OCOEE FOUNDATION INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CLINTON DAVIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DON BRADLEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DON BRADLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY PHILLIPS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANK SMITH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SHEEHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SHEEHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SHEEHAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2008-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN KUPCHYNSKY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN KUPCHYNSKY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KURT HOLM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET SHEEHAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET SHEEHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE HOLCOMBE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBYN WILSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM BURTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$595,376
$367,721
—
—
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$572,966
$362,222
—
—
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$687,493
$482,743
—
—
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$414,242
$238,882
—
—
—
3
propco
2020-12-31
$128,462
$128,462
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47055
fmr
0
$758
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47055
acs median gross
1
$660
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47055
fmr
1
$763
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47055
acs median gross
2
$887
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47055
fmr
2
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47055
acs median gross
3
$924
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47055
fmr
3
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47055
acs median gross
4
$1,297
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47055
fmr
4
$1,395
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47055
acs median gross
$862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47055
acs recent mover gross
$792
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38449
acs median gross
2
$839
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38449
acs median gross
3
$1,175
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38449
acs median gross
$891
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 38449
payment standard 110
0
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 90
0
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
safmr
0
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 110
1
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 90
1
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
safmr
1
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 110
2
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 90
2
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
safmr
2
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 110
3
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 90
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
safmr
3
$1,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 110
4
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
payment standard 90
4
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38449
safmr
4
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.