Reads as: riskier than 78.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
35 chains
WELLTOWER INC
135 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
62 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.73
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.60
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.78
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
113.4
2.73
0.34
0.86
1.52
2.60
7.2%
2025Q3
92
102.8
2.84
0.36
0.87
1.61
2.66
8.0%
2025Q2
91
101.7
2.73
0.27
0.90
1.56
2.72
7.7%
2025Q1
90
101.9
2.82
0.50
0.87
1.45
2.74
0.0%
2024Q4
92
101.3
2.60
0.47
0.77
1.36
2.42
0.0%
2024Q3
92
93.5
2.63
0.46
0.79
1.38
2.42
0.0%
2024Q2
91
84.0
2.86
0.55
0.84
1.46
2.62
2.8%
2024Q1
91
87.1
2.88
0.50
0.88
1.50
2.64
5.5%
2023Q4
92
90.1
3.09
0.52
0.91
1.66
2.92
9.6%
2023Q3
92
92.8
3.00
0.37
1.00
1.63
2.83
14.3%
2023Q2
91
100.6
2.96
0.41
0.94
1.60
2.75
19.6%
2023Q1
90
99.4
3.04
0.36
0.99
1.68
2.96
16.3%
2022Q4
92
97.3
3.12
0.40
1.01
1.70
3.01
12.9%
2022Q3
92
96.4
3.15
0.38
1.07
1.70
3.07
13.5%
2022Q2
91
107.5
2.95
0.41
0.94
1.60
2.78
15.3%
2022Q1
90
93.6
3.08
0.47
0.92
1.69
3.00
30.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-12-23
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-12-23
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-12-23
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-12-23
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-12-23
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-12-23
2024-08-28
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-09-10
2024-08-28
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-09-10
2024-01-31
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-02-13
2024-01-31
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
C
2024-02-13
2023-12-06
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
L
2023-12-26
2023-07-31
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-08-01
2021-09-16
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2021-10-21
2021-09-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-10-21
2021-09-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2021-10-21
2019-05-14
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2019-06-26
2019-05-14
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2019-06-26
2019-05-14
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2019-06-26
2019-05-14
Health
F0711
Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit.
B
2019-06-26
2019-05-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-06-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
9055 WEST SPRAGUE ROAD OH OWNER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRANTZ, MATTHEW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GROPPI, RACHEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF OH HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELL INTEGRA MASTER JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELL PM HOLDCO JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW FRANTZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RACHEL GROPPI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-11-30
$454,307
—
$454,307
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$386,003
—
$386,003
—
—
1
—
2023-04-30
$140,969
—
$140,969
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$428,780
—
$428,780
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$350,028
—
$350,028
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$407,015
—
$407,015
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39035
acs median gross
0
$792
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
0
$933
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
1
$859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
1
$1,058
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
2
$1,106
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
2
$1,279
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
3
$1,290
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
3
$1,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
4
$1,442
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
fmr
4
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39035
acs median gross
5
$1,548
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
acs median gross
$1,060
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39035
acs recent mover gross
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44133
acs median gross
0
$1,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44133
acs median gross
1
$936
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44133
acs median gross
2
$1,265
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44133
acs median gross
3
$1,585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44133
acs median gross
4
$3,156
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44133
acs median gross
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44133
acs recent mover gross
$1,548
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 44133
payment standard 110
0
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 90
0
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
safmr
0
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 110
1
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 90
1
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
safmr
1
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 110
2
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 90
2
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
safmr
2
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 110
3
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 90
3
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
safmr
3
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 110
4
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
payment standard 90
4
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44133
safmr
4
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.