9707 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, BETHESDA, MD 20814 · CCN 215287
Composite
3.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
31
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 3.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q2 HPRD
This facility
MD median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
6.29
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.31
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.80
3.17
3.11
—
Weekday total
6.49
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q2
91
16.4
6.29
1.31
0.81
4.16
5.80
0.0%
2025Q1
90
12.0
7.84
1.55
1.11
5.18
7.20
0.0%
2024Q4
92
15.7
6.71
1.26
0.95
4.50
6.38
0.0%
2024Q3
92
16.4
6.63
1.15
1.01
4.48
6.21
0.0%
2024Q2
91
15.0
6.76
1.26
0.99
4.51
6.09
0.0%
2024Q1
91
13.4
7.06
1.47
0.98
4.61
6.64
0.0%
2023Q4
92
17.0
6.42
1.42
0.91
4.09
5.82
0.0%
2023Q3
92
16.1
6.67
1.47
0.87
4.33
6.20
0.0%
2023Q2
91
12.8
7.59
1.38
1.09
5.13
6.94
0.0%
2023Q1
90
16.0
6.42
1.24
0.82
4.36
6.24
0.0%
2022Q4
92
15.2
6.53
1.24
0.97
4.32
6.45
0.0%
2022Q3
92
16.0
5.99
0.82
1.02
4.14
6.11
0.0%
2022Q2
91
15.9
6.55
0.97
1.25
4.33
6.37
0.0%
2022Q1
90
15.6
6.61
1.12
1.32
4.16
6.32
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
5
D × 4G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-10
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-12
2025-03-10
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-12
2025-03-10
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-03-12
2019-08-02
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2019-09-20
2019-08-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2019-09-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COELHO, ANDREW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-10-12
current
pecos_ownership
DORAZIO, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
FALCO, DENISE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
FRANTZ, EDWARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
FRIED, LESLIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GALLAGHER, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
HARRY, BARBARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
HOTVEDT, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
MAY, CATHERINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORETTI, ANNA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
O'RIORDAN, DAMIEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAINTER, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
PARVER, SHARON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PASSI, RAVI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROYAL, PATRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SEKEL, WENDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-08-30
current
pecos_ownership
SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-21
current
pecos_ownership
SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING SERVICES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1994-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
WELLS, ANJA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREW COELHO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2009-10-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANJA WELLS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNA MORETTI
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA HARRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2005-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHERINE MAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2013-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID PAINTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2011-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENISE FALCO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD FRANTZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2015-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH GALLAGHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LESLIE FRIED
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2004-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL DORAZIO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA ROYAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD HOTVEDT
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHARON PARVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2008-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WENDY SEKEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2017-08-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAMIEN O'RIORDAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAVI PASSI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 24031
acs median gross
0
$1,685
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
0
$1,953
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
1
$1,819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
1
$2,015
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
2
$2,113
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
2
$2,246
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
3
$2,515
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
4
$3,095
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
4
$3,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
acs median gross
$2,068
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
acs recent mover gross
$2,226
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20814
acs median gross
0
$1,806
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20814
acs median gross
1
$2,189
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20814
acs median gross
2
$2,652
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20814
acs median gross
3
$2,933
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20814
acs median gross
4
$3,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20814
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20814
acs median gross
$2,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20814
acs recent mover gross
$2,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 20814
payment standard 110
0
$2,607
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 90
0
$2,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
safmr
0
$2,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 110
1
$2,684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 90
1
$2,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
safmr
1
$2,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 110
2
$2,992
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 90
2
$2,448
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
safmr
2
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 110
3
$3,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 90
3
$3,087
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
safmr
3
$3,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 110
4
$4,444
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
payment standard 90
4
$3,636
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20814
safmr
4
$4,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.