Composite
62.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 86.5 | 83.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.96 | in index |
| billing conduct | 77.5 | 51.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.88 | in index |
| staffing risk | 41.6 | 41.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 8.00 | in index |
| chow risk | 49.7 | 31.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.73 | in index |
| financial risk | 6.8 | 15.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 1.57 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 51.5 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 8.8 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 15.9 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 83.7 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 41.7 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 36.7 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 21.9 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 83.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 83.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 41.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 41.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.91 | -1.27 | |
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.73 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.74 | +0.39 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.74 | -0.97 | |
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.84 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.91 | -0.21 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MD median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.42 | 3.32 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.52 | 3.36 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 90.1 | 3.42 | 0.43 | 0.72 | 2.27 | 3.17 | 6.1% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 93.6 | 3.16 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 2.14 | 3.02 | 7.3% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 89.4 | 3.49 | 0.76 | 0.48 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 9.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 85.2 | 3.67 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 2.39 | 3.12 | 19.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 84.3 | 3.66 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 2.47 | 3.16 | 29.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 86.5 | 3.63 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 2.49 | 3.05 | 19.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 86.5 | 3.46 | 0.57 | 0.59 | 2.29 | 2.83 | 15.7% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 87.4 | 3.38 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 2.29 | 2.72 | 2.3% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 88.2 | 3.50 | 0.64 | 0.47 | 2.38 | 3.01 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 88.9 | 3.79 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 2.65 | 3.07 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 90.3 | 3.75 | 0.52 | 0.62 | 2.62 | 3.06 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 88.1 | 3.86 | 0.51 | 0.66 | 2.68 | 3.22 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 88.4 | 3.96 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 2.78 | 3.27 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 86.1 | 4.10 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 2.90 | 3.46 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 83.2 | 3.73 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 2.42 | 3.28 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-29 | Fine | $188,013 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-02-20 | Fine | $4,938 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-02-12 | Fine | $4,938 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-01-22 | Fine | $13,674 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-01-08 | Fine | $3,798 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-01-02 | Fine | $3,176 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-12-11 | Fine | $7,409 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-01-26 |
| 2025-03-04 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-03-14 |
| 2025-03-04 | Health · complaint | F0923 | Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both. | E | 2025-03-14 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0551 | Give the resident's representative the ability to exercise the resident's rights. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0575 | Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-11-21 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | E | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | K | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0687 | Provide appropriate foot care. | G | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-08-29 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | D | 2024-10-17 |
| 2019-09-13 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | B | 2019-10-25 |
| 2019-09-13 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2019-10-25 |
| 2019-09-13 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2019-10-25 |
| 2018-06-26 | Health | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | D | 2018-08-09 |
| 2018-06-26 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2018-08-09 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOWELL ROAD REALTY | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DOWELL ROAD REALTY | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| HERMISOL HOLDCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2020-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STERN, AHARON | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 25% | 2023-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MENDLOWITZ, MOSHE | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 24% | 2020-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| 10-26 NATIONWIDE TR | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2020-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STERN, AHARON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STERN, SIMON | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2020-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DOWELL ROAD REALTY | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DOWELL ROAD REALTY | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2020-09-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DOWELL ROAD REALTY | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| AHARON STERN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 25% | 2023-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SIMON STERN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 25% | 2020-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MOSHE MENDLOWITZ | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 24% | 2020-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AHARON STERN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-01 | — | SOLOMONS SKILLED NURSING CENTER LLC | SOLOMONS NURSING CENTER INC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | FROSTBURG REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 122 | KAYLOR FROSTBURG LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | SOUTH MOUNTAIN REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 157 | SM REHAB |
| 2024-12-01 | ST. ELIZABETH REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 162 | ST. ELIZABETH OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | SNOW HILL REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 69 | SNOW HILL SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | DENNETT REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | DENNETT SNF |
| 2024-09-01 | FREDERICK CROSSING OF JOURNEY | — | — | — | 120 | FREDERICK CROSSING OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | BAY HARBOR POST ACUTE HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 305 | BAY HARBOR OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | GREEN ACRES NURSING AND REHAB | — | — | — | 170 | 10200 LA PLATA OPCO LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | COPPER RIDGE NURSING AND ASSISTED LIVING CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | CARROLL MD OPCO LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | RESORTS OF AUGSBURG | — | — | — | 131 | RESORTS OF AUGSBURG CORP |
| 2023-12-01 | ROSSVILLE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 172 | ROSSVILLE SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-12-01 | TOWSON REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 132 | TOWSON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 24009 | fmr | 0 | $1,811 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24009 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,097 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24009 | fmr | 1 | $1,851 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24009 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,483 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24009 | fmr | 2 | $2,083 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24009 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,025 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24009 | fmr | 3 | $2,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24009 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,439 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24009 | fmr | 4 | $3,106 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24009 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,931 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24009 | acs median gross | $1,759 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 24009 | acs recent mover gross | $1,713 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 20688 | acs median gross | 1 | $3,206 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20688 | acs median gross | 2 | $3,304 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20688 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,250 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20688 | acs median gross | $3,222 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,728 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,232 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | safmr | 0 | $2,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | safmr | 1 | $2,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | safmr | 2 | $3,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,312 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,528 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | safmr | 3 | $3,920 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $5,071 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $4,149 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20688 | safmr | 4 | $4,610 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |