15051 HARMONY HILLS LANE, ABINGDON, VA 24211 · CCN 495409 · chain DJ PETRINE LLC
Composite
47.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
120
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 47.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
SMITH MICHAEL
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
SMITH MICHAEL
16 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
VA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.10
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.21
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.06
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.12
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
115.8
3.10
0.21
0.80
2.09
3.06
0.0%
2025Q3
92
113.3
3.15
0.20
0.87
2.08
3.14
0.0%
2025Q2
91
113.8
2.97
0.19
0.81
1.97
2.95
0.0%
2025Q1
90
111.1
2.89
0.16
0.89
1.84
2.92
0.0%
2024Q4
92
112.4
2.92
0.18
0.85
1.88
2.93
0.0%
2024Q3
92
116.2
2.85
0.15
0.81
1.89
2.88
0.0%
2024Q2
91
109.0
2.93
0.23
0.81
1.89
2.96
0.0%
2024Q1
91
113.8
2.87
0.21
0.78
1.88
2.91
0.0%
2023Q4
92
114.7
2.92
0.26
0.74
1.92
2.91
0.0%
2023Q3
92
111.3
2.89
0.34
0.71
1.84
2.84
0.0%
2023Q2
91
113.0
2.84
0.35
0.72
1.77
2.79
0.0%
2023Q1
90
113.3
2.73
0.30
0.70
1.72
2.77
0.0%
2022Q4
92
110.1
2.82
0.43
0.64
1.75
2.79
0.0%
2022Q3
92
107.3
2.52
0.33
0.73
1.45
2.51
0.0%
2022Q2
91
111.2
2.35
0.18
0.79
1.38
2.30
0.0%
2022Q1
90
93.1
2.48
0.19
0.89
1.40
2.38
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
B × 1D × 7E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-08-07
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-10
2024-08-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-10-10
2024-08-07
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
B
2024-10-10
2018-12-06
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2019-01-18
2018-12-06
Health
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2019-01-18
2018-12-06
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2019-01-18
2018-12-06
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2019-01-18
2018-12-06
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2019-01-18
2018-12-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2019-01-18
2018-12-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-01-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ALESANTRINO, JOE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BDSHEFFER LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
COMMONWEALTH CARE OF ROANOKE INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
COMMONWEALTH CARE OF ROANOKE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
DJ PETRINE LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
GOODALL, LURY
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
HUFFMAN, CHRISTI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
M&T BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-08-05
current
pecos_ownership
NICKELS, CHRISTINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
OSBORNE, LORI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETRINE, DEBORAH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2010-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
PETRINE, DEBORAH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
PETRINE, JAMES
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2010-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
QUALITY CARE REHAB INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
REHNBORG, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEFFER, BRADY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2010-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
STALLARD, PATRICIA
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
TUCKER, DAVID
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH PETRINE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
22%
2010-10-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES PETRINE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
22%
2010-10-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRADY SHEFFER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2010-10-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LURY GOODALL
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2017-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA STALLARD
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2017-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID TUCKER
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2017-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES REHNBORG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTI HUFFMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA NICKELS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH PETRINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOE ALESANTRINO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI OSBORNE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SMITH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$859,845
—
$859,845
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$825,657
—
$825,657
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$679,783
—
$679,783
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$663,853
—
$663,853
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$701,120
—
$701,120
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 51191
acs median gross
0
$420
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51191
fmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51191
acs median gross
1
$603
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51191
fmr
1
$818
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51191
acs median gross
2
$844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51191
fmr
2
$1,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51191
acs median gross
3
$1,082
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51191
fmr
3
$1,338
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51191
acs median gross
4
$1,313
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51191
fmr
4
$1,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51191
acs median gross
$854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51191
acs recent mover gross
$1,015
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24211
acs median gross
1
$594
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24211
acs median gross
2
$914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24211
acs median gross
3
$1,324
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24211
acs median gross
$1,033
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 24211
payment standard 110
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 90
0
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
safmr
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 110
1
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 90
1
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
safmr
1
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 110
2
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 90
2
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
safmr
2
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 110
3
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 90
3
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
safmr
3
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 110
4
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
payment standard 90
4
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24211
safmr
4
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.